What if President Donald Trump makes the unthinkable decision to launch a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iran? This scenario explores how such an operation could unfold, from securing the Strait of Hormuz and key strategic islands to the challenges of a prolonged ground campaign, regional escalation, and Iran’s asymmetric defenses. This video examines one possible hypothetical military scenario, the strategic obstacles involved, and the potential consequences for the Middle East and global security.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Donald Trump US Invasion Strategy for Iran
02:12 - CIA and Israel Arming Iranian Kurdish Fighters
06:19 - US Assault on 3 Strategic Hormuz Islands
09:51 - Why Occupying Hormuz Islands is an IRGC Trap
11:53 - US Ground Invasion of 1,800 Kilometer Coastline
16:10 - Will Donald Trump Order Ground Invasion of Iran?
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/TM4yixtc
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Donald Trump US Invasion Strategy for Iran
02:12 - CIA and Israel Arming Iranian Kurdish Fighters
06:19 - US Assault on 3 Strategic Hormuz Islands
09:51 - Why Occupying Hormuz Islands is an IRGC Trap
11:53 - US Ground Invasion of 1,800 Kilometer Coastline
16:10 - Will Donald Trump Order Ground Invasion of Iran?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/TM4yixtc
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NewsTranscript
00:00What if U.S. President Donald Trump makes the ultimate decision?
00:04Having tried everything that he can think of with Iran,
00:07from negotiating via mediators to airstrikes and strong-arming,
00:11Trump decides that enough is enough.
00:13If the U.S. is going to win in Iran,
00:16it can't do it using strikes and Strait of Hormuz blockades alone.
00:20Boots have to be put on the ground.
00:22A total invasion is needed.
00:25It's the unthinkable, but it may have to happen.
00:27And if it does, this is one of the scenarios that Trump may try to follow.
00:32One thing is for sure, Iran would never be the same again.
00:36Trump doesn't want to invade Iran.
00:38He knows the very idea is unpopular.
00:40But he has tried everything he can think of.
00:42A $300 billion reconstruction plan that was supposed to bring Iran back to negotiations
00:48failed to get off the ground after questions were asked about where the money would come from.
00:53America has done plenty of damage to Iran with the combined aerial and naval
00:57strategy that we've seen throughout Operation Epic Fury.
01:00But it hasn't been enough.
01:02That strategy assumed that Iran would try to fight the U.S. toe-to-toe.
01:06That's not what happened.
01:07America has the superior firepower in terms of pure destructive force.
01:11But Iran has an asymmetric strategy combined with a willingness on the part of the regime
01:16and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, to hunker down and absorb whatever America throws.
01:23Drones have become a factor.
01:25As powerful as the U.S. is at high altitudes and in naval battles, it has struggled to contend with
01:30Iran's low-altitude threats.
01:32A five-week campaign has now dragged on for almost half a year.
01:37Finding himself running out of options, Trump has to choose the best from a bad bunch.
01:41He can't capitulate.
01:43Doing so would show too much weakness, as it would mean the U.S. has to walk away from a
01:47fight it started with nothing to show for its efforts.
01:50Operation Epic Fury would be for nothing if Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and continues to enrich uranium.
01:57But diplomacy, barricades, and bomb after bomb haven't taken the U.S. to where Trump wants it to be in
02:03Iran.
02:04There is only one option left.
02:06The least terrible of the terrible choices.
02:08Invasion.
02:09The scenario we're about to present for that invasion relies on one crucial factor.
02:14Iran's Kurds would be in play.
02:15The U.S. needs that, and as we've learned, it wanted to encourage the Kurds to carry out the bulk
02:20of the work from the start.
02:22There is no shortage of ethnic groups inside Iran that want to see the end to the country's regime.
02:27Most of the minorities in the country, including the Kurds, who make up 10% of Iran's population,
02:32the Azerbaijanis, who make up 16%,
02:35and the Lurs, Baluchis, Turkish, and Arabic people, who all have populations in the single-digit percentages, want to see
02:42change.
02:43Minorities are persecuted by Iran's regime.
02:46However, gathering these disparate people into a united front isn't an option for the U.S.
02:51They all have different ideas of what Iran, without its current regime, should look like.
02:56And most don't have the sort of fighting force that would be a true help during an invasion.
03:01The Kurds are the most likely option to help the U.S.
03:03And America clearly identified that itself, long before the prospect of this invasion came about.
03:09In a March 4th report, CNN revealed sources had told it that the CIA was working to arm Kurdish forces
03:15in Iran,
03:15and had begun doing so several months before Operation Epic Fury began.
03:20The idea seemed to be that the Kurds would storm Tehran, supported by U.S. and Israeli air power,
03:26to topple the regime during the first few weeks of Operation Epic Fury.
03:29This initial plan was bolstered by five Kurdish groups in Iran coming together under one banner,
03:35as the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, on February 22nd,
03:40just six days ahead of the first airstrikes.
03:43Together, those groups bring tens of thousands of fighters into the mix.
03:48Those groups could link up with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
03:52and together they would take over for a regime in the process of being crippled.
03:56The U.S. thought that would be enough.
03:58It wasn't.
03:59The storming of Tehran by the Kurds never happened.
04:02So, plan B then.
04:03As the U.S. prepares for its own invasion, it still wants to involve the Kurds,
04:07especially as they could prove to be a very disruptive force in Iran's north.
04:12America knows now that the Kurds alone aren't enough to get the job done,
04:15even with support from airstrikes.
04:17So they will be an asset, rather than the main event player.
04:20It's the U.S. that will have to do the bulk of the work.
04:23It's in these early planning days when the first barrier to the U.S. invasion appears.
04:28That barrier is Turkey.
04:30And the last thing that Turkey wants to see is well-armed groups of Kurdish militants,
04:34even if they're working alongside an ally like the U.S.
04:37In fact, it seems to be Turkey that played a key role in blocking Kurdish groups from getting involved
04:42during the initial stages of Operation Epic Fury.
04:45That's according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arragchi, who said in July,
04:49Turkey played a very effective role in this process.
04:52They held talks with the Americans and took a very firm position on the issue.
04:56These collective efforts ensured the failure of the plot to divide Iran and stir internal unrest.
05:01So how does the U.S. overcome this barrier?
05:04It doesn't involve the Kurds.
05:06Israel does.
05:07Israel likely has no interest in getting involved in a ground operation.
05:11Trump knows that.
05:12However, he also knows that Israel's Mossad was behind the initial plan to get the Kurds involved
05:17in the fighting, and it may be willing to bite the bullet and claim that Israel is behind
05:21what the Kurds do in the U.S. invasion.
05:24That would save the U.S. from a diplomatic crisis with Turkey.
05:28Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a proponent of the original idea,
05:32and he may be willing to support the Kurds with Israeli airpower while the U.S. puts boots on the
05:36ground.
05:37If that's the case, then the role of the Kurdish fighters won't be to storm Tehran.
05:41Not for a while, at least.
05:43They would be in place to cause chaos in Iran's northern and western regions.
05:47We've already seen hints of this happening in June.
05:50A spate of Kurdish attacks left four members of the IRGC dead,
05:53and there is speculation that it was the Kurds who were behind the supposed car crash
05:57that claimed the life of the political deputy of the IRGC's navy, Mohamed Akbazada.
06:03Trump has the plan in place, assuming the Kurds are in play, with the help of Israel,
06:08and he can either smooth over or simply not care about the trouble that part of the plan causes with
06:12Turkey.
06:13Trump and his administration can focus on the U.S. role.
06:16And it's here that things get complicated.
06:19There are obvious targets for the U.S. to focus on during its ground invasion.
06:23Those targets aren't without their complications.
06:26The islands in the Strait of Hormuz will dictate everything, and we're about to explain why.
06:31But before we do, this is a reminder that you are watching The Military Show.
06:35If you're enjoying this video, we have plenty more on the channel and release videos daily.
06:39Subscribe and ring the notification bell to make sure you see them.
06:44America's role, at least initially, is to storm the islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
06:48But not all of the islands.
06:50There are eight to choose from.
06:52But some are more strategically important than others.
06:55The U.S. settles on three.
06:57Karg, Larak, and Kashem.
06:59All three can be used to hurt Iran's regime in different ways.
07:03When it comes to oil, which is the lifeblood of the entire Iranian economy,
07:07Karg Island means everything to Iran's regime.
07:10Lying about 26 kilometers from the Iranian coast,
07:13keep that in mind because it'll be important,
07:15this island has already been hit by a heavy dose of U.S. air power.
07:19There was a reason for that.
07:21Karg Island is where the oil infrastructure is located.
07:23Specifically, it's home to an export terminal that processes about 90% of Iran's oil shipments,
07:30amounting to a capacity to load about 7 million barrels of oil daily.
07:34This one island is responsible for tens of billions of dollars flowing into Iran every year.
07:40Taking control of it would allow the U.S. to slice the economic jugular that keeps Iran alive.
07:45At least, that would be the plan.
07:47Larak Island plays a different, though no less important role.
07:51This island essentially serves as Iran's eyes and ears in the Strait of Hormuz,
07:55which Iran has blockaded to put pressure on the U.S. to end its war.
07:59Located to the east of Qashem and relatively well fortified with networks of bunkers and small ports
08:04filled with attack craft,
08:06it's this island that effectively became the booth where merchant ships paid the $2 million toll
08:10that Iran demanded for safe passage through Hormuz during the height of Operation Epic Fury.
08:15The island is also loaded with radar systems, communications towers, and IRGC observation posts,
08:21all of which the U.S. will want to take out of commission.
08:24Then there's Qashem, the fortress of the three.
08:27Though a beautiful island on the surface, Qashem is large, measuring 1,445 square kilometers.
08:34It has 148,000 residents, and it's believed to be home to an underground missile city.
08:40It's also just 22 kilometers away from Bandar Abbas, which is home to one of Iran's main naval bases.
08:46Iranian fast boats constantly launch from this island, as do drones and missiles,
08:50making it the attacking force that helps Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz under control.
08:55Some have even nicknamed the island Iran's unsinkable aircraft carrier,
08:59and it would be easily the most challenging of the three for the U.S. to invade.
09:03But invade the U.S. must.
09:05If the U.S. is to destroy Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz,
09:08which would be a key goal of putting boots on the ground, then Qashem must fall.
09:11The three islands together would deliver a three-punch combo to the Iranian regime.
09:17Karg delivers an economic haymaker,
09:19Larak sends a right hook into Iran's eyes,
09:22and Qashem takes out the guts of Iran's offensive potential.
09:25But only in the Strait of Hormuz, and it's here where we see another problem arise.
09:30We won't say that it's easy for the U.S. to take these three islands.
09:34Doable is the better word.
09:36Assuming America can amass a force of several tens of thousands of soldiers
09:39and actually get them to the islands, which is no small feat in itself.
09:43But fast forward to a U.S. occupation,
09:45and it may soon become evident that the U.S. has sailed, or flown,
09:49into a trap of Iran's making.
09:51It's one thing to take these islands.
09:53Holding them is a whole other problem.
09:55You may remember that we asked you to keep Karg Island's proximity
09:58to the Iranian coast in mind a little earlier.
10:01There's a reason for that.
10:0226 kilometers isn't very far for a missile or drone to fly.
10:06And now you see the American problem.
10:09Stationed on these three islands,
10:10the U.S. troops would be sitting ducks for an entire arsenal of Iranian firepower
10:15that can be launched from coastal regions.
10:18Artillery and small boat swarms would also like to come into play,
10:21leaving the U.S. with the extremely difficult task of setting up air defenses
10:25and trying to create logistical through lines to these islands,
10:28all as they are being bombarded.
10:30On top of these immediate problems,
10:32the U.S. would have a propaganda challenge on its hands.
10:34But, Iranian reconnaissance drones would be filming everything.
10:38Imagine if one of those drones happened to catch American soldiers being hit,
10:41be it by missiles, Shahid strike drones, or artillery,
10:44the latter of which becomes a factor for the first time now
10:47that soldiers are so close to the mainland.
10:50That footage will be circulated all over Iranian state television.
10:53At the same time, Iran will be able to position the U.S. as an invader,
10:57perhaps whipping up support from Gulf and Middle Eastern nations.
11:00Sure, the U.S. might be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
11:03which is a through-way for 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
11:08But at what cost?
11:09Hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of American soldiers' lives could be lost
11:13if the U.S. only invades these three islands.
11:16More would be needed.
11:17At the very least, the U.S. would have to combine the invasion of this trio of islands
11:21with putting boots on the ground in the coastal areas
11:24that represent the greatest threat to troops installed on Karg, Larak, and Kashen.
11:28Trump and his advisors would know this already.
11:31They would have to be blind to assume that Iran wouldn't strike
11:34as soon as the trio of Hormuz Islands was under U.S. control.
11:37So the U.S. would have to try to get ahead of the problem.
11:40Activating the Kurdish forces in Iran's north and west helps,
11:43as they can distract the IRGC and Iran's military, forcing a fight on two fronts.
11:48But the coast still has to be taken care of.
11:51In for a penny, in for a pound, as the British idiom goes.
11:55Trump and the U.S. would have no choice,
11:56and it's here where the numbers related to the invasion really start to add up.
12:00For a start, Iran's coastline is massive,
12:03about 1,800 kilometers stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Amman.
12:08That presents a challenge in its own right.
12:10Traditional amphibious assaults are going to be difficult to pull off.
12:13Especially as the IRGC will likely deploy fastboats and drones into Hormuz.
12:18Those assets will be trying to disrupt logistics,
12:20but they are certain to go after any landing ships heading toward coastal bases.
12:25The U.S. has already sent the USS Boxer and USS Tripoli to the Persian Gulf
12:29during Operation Epic Fury.
12:31But actually getting either through Hormuz and to bases like Bandar Abbas
12:35would be incredibly difficult.
12:37An aerial invasion, or at least a combination of airpower and amphibious landing ships,
12:41could be a solution.
12:42The U.S. would already be peppering missile, boat, and drone launch sites across the coast,
12:48taking advantage of having destroyed about 80% of Iran's air defense net.
12:53The U.S. would have to deploy the likes of C-5 Galaxy, C-17 Globemaster 3,
12:58and C-130 Hercules to get troops and equipment into Iran,
13:02though the question of how is difficult.
13:03Iran still has mobile air defenses, and those massive airplanes need places to land.
13:09Using Qashem as a landing pad and then sending troops and equipment into Iran by ship from there
13:14could be an option, though one that doesn't overcome the challenges that impact simply using ships in the strait.
13:20Perhaps airstrikes on airstrips near the coast to clear the way,
13:23followed by landing cargo aircraft, deplaning, and then immediately moving on to assaults conducted by soldiers.
13:29Perhaps.
13:30The deployment of special forces teams from helicopters could also help with this approach.
13:34Then there are the numbers.
13:35Taking the islands may only require several tens of thousands of soldiers.
13:41A full-blown invasion of Iran could easily require a million or more.
13:46That's for a full invasion that involves storming all of Iran,
13:50right up to and including pushing to Tehran to take out the country's regime.
13:54The U.S. likely won't want to do that.
13:56Trump certainly won't.
13:57He's already been forced to go from once railing against other presidents for their Middle Eastern policies
14:02to starting his own Gulf War.
14:03He might just be able to get away with putting boots on the ground,
14:07but committing a million troops to Iran would be a step too far.
14:11Attacking the islands and coastal regions to enable a strategy of economic attrition would be the preferred plan.
14:17For that, estimates vary on how many soldiers would be needed.
14:20Those estimates range from the tens to the hundreds of thousands.
14:24Taking Bandar Abbas alone might require a force of close to 20,000.
14:28And when you take the 1,800-kilometer coastline into account,
14:31it's easy to see why hundreds of thousands more might be needed.
14:35But let's assume that the U.S. commits to this plan.
14:38There's still a little issue of Iran's regime to consider.
14:41Having already proven itself asymmetrically, which is why an invasion is needed in the first place,
14:46that regime will be able to employ more of its traditional military might
14:50against a U.S. force that is now within range of strikes.
14:52That much is a given.
14:54The regime also said in early July that it's ready for war if the U.S. fails to commit to
14:59a deal,
15:00telling us that the regime is willing to bed in and fight if the time comes.
15:04There are also interesting claims being made about how Iran would respond if the U.S. did invade.
15:09In mid-July, a member of Iran's National Security Committee, Ahmad Bakshayesh Adestani, said,
15:15If the United States puts boots on the ground in Iran, we may also launch ground attacks on Kuwait and
15:20Bahrain.
15:21That brings a whole new element of danger to the invasion plan.
15:24Those nations don't want to fight a war with Iran.
15:27They didn't want Operation Epic Fury in the first place.
15:29If Iran followed through on this threat,
15:32they will be put in the position of choosing between U.S. allies and Iranian pressure.
15:35If the latter wins, both will be pushing the U.S. hard to drop its invasion.
15:40The same could be said of other Gulf nations such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
15:44once they see how far Iran is willing to go.
15:46It's not as though Iran doesn't have the manpower for a response like this either.
15:50Global Firepower reports that Iran has 610,000 active soldiers in its military,
15:55a further 220,000 in paramilitary forces, mostly the IRGC, and 350,000 reserves.
16:03Causing chaos would be Iran's goal, enough of it to pressure the U.S. into reversing course.
16:08Now the big question, could this actually happen?
16:12Trump is reported to be considering all of America's options up to and including an invasion.
16:17That's according to a July 15th CNN report,
16:19which claims that sources close to the White House have revealed
16:22that Trump has received options for expanding operations in Iran.
16:26Trump has also promised more airstrikes in an attempt to pressure Iran into submission.
16:30There's a feeling that what failed before isn't going to work at the second time of ask.
16:35Plus, at the time of creating this video, America's midterm elections are coming.
16:39They're a few months away with November being the big month, but they are coming.
16:42And if the U.S. invades now, that would give Trump a four-month deadline
16:46to either win big or get stuck in a quagmire
16:49that could ruin the Republican Party's chances of keeping hold of both houses of Congress.
16:53That political aspect has to be considered,
16:56as handing the houses over to the Democrats would mean far greater opposition posed to Trump domestically.
17:01Still, something has to be done.
17:03And right now, it looks like Trump's options are a humiliating retreat or an escalation.
17:08If he chooses the latter, what we've just presented is one possible scenario.
17:12There are other, more limited options.
17:14We covered one of those, focusing on Karg Island a few months ago.
17:18If you want to find out more, along with getting more insight into why this island is so important,
17:23then check that video out.
17:24And if you found this analysis of the U.S. putting boots on the ground in Iran interesting,
17:28remember to subscribe and enable notifications
17:30so you don't miss what we have coming next.
17:33And thank you for watching.
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