00:00And joining me now is Robert Pape. He's professor of political science at the University of Chicago,
00:04founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats.
00:08He's also the author of Bombing to Win, and his sub-stack is entitled Escalation Trap.
00:14He says that this conflict may now be entering what he calls the Battle of Hormuz.
00:20Professor, it's good to have you on the program.
00:22The United States is striking targets, as you know, from Iran's southern coast to areas around Tehran,
00:29and Iran is attacking bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
00:33Washington has reimposed its naval blockade.
00:37Shipping through Hormuz has virtually stopped.
00:39I'm wondering who has the initiative right now?
00:45Well, we are in a wicked escalation trap and have been for some time.
00:51So the war started with bombs hitting targets, tactical success,
00:57bombs killed leaders, destroyed missile launchers, but Iran gained power.
01:04And that was the second stage.
01:06And that was something that was tragic but predictable,
01:10and that has led to the third stage, which is the ground power dilemma.
01:14And we've been in that stage for quite some time,
01:18and we are fast heading to cross that threshold.
01:21Now, right now, who has the initiative?
01:25It's starting, this conflict is starting to take on a momentum of its own.
01:32The reason is because you don't just simply have action by the United States.
01:38As those bombs hit targets, killed leaders, and also killed nearly 4,000 Iranians,
01:45and then the blockade, the one that had been on for two months,
01:50already imposed enormous costs on Iranian society.
01:53And now that this is all coming back,
01:56this is stimulating enormous nationalism inside of Iran for revenge.
02:02So now you have the United States trying to reverse a strategic defeat.
02:08You have Iran that is now bent on a campaign of revenge,
02:13not just simply holding its own.
02:16And if you look a little wider, just in the last few days,
02:20the Houthis, one of Iran's big allies,
02:23are starting to use force against the Saudis.
02:26And that's important because the Saudis have a pipeline
02:30that goes right through Houthi-controlled territory.
02:33If this is attacked or if the ships are attacked,
02:37this is going to make the world's energy problems much, much worse.
02:43And we're already heading to an oil inventory cliff.
02:49So all of this adds up to this conflict is now
02:54starting to have its own momentum for escalation.
02:59You've unpacked a lot there, and we're going to go through that.
03:02President Trump said this week that the Strait of Hormuz
03:05was open and under American control.
03:08But the ships, the insurance companies, they appear to disagree.
03:13Is the blunt reality that the United States does not control the Strait?
03:20Absolutely, yes.
03:22And you can see it.
03:24I post almost every day on my X.
03:27I post the shipping that goes through Hormuz.
03:31It's one of the most popular things that I put on.
03:34And then I usually explain, and it's often,
03:37how few the ships are going through.
03:39And the few ships that are going through
03:42are going through the Iranian avenue.
03:45That's that northern avenue.
03:47And the most important part
03:49is that almost no ships, no tankers,
03:51are coming in to get new oil.
03:53So as we look at the Strait being closed,
03:57all the ways you would look at it
03:59paint to a coming economic crisis for the world.
04:04There's only so long we can go without 20% of the world's oil.
04:10And as this conflict escalates,
04:14that we're going to hit those cliffs,
04:17and then they could be shut for many months.
04:21Well, you have warned that this could lead
04:24to American troops seizing Iranian territory
04:27near the Strait.
04:28President Trump has specifically refused
04:30to rule out taking Karg Island,
04:32which is Iran's main oil export hub.
04:35What would such an operation actually involve?
04:38I mean, are we talking about tens of thousands
04:40of boots on the ground in Iran?
04:44Well, in the early stages,
04:47what you really see is that President Trump
04:51wants a symbolic victory.
04:54It's very important to understand
04:56that we all know,
04:57and his advisors are surely telling him,
05:00that the military risks here with ground,
05:03and actually any of the military options,
05:06are horrible for the United States
05:08and the American allies.
05:10But he's going forward
05:12because he's in political desperation.
05:16He's making a political calculation
05:19that as bad as a prolonged war may be,
05:23abruptly accepting the strategic loss
05:27where Iran comes out clearly ahead,
05:31puts him in an untenable political situation
05:36at home with MAGA.
05:38This is very similar to Lyndon Johnson
05:41in the Vietnam War,
05:42where we now know,
05:44because he made tapes,
05:45that Lyndon Johnson knew in advance
05:48the military options he was ordering
05:51would fail.
05:52He did it anyway.
05:54And the reason he did it is
05:56he was hoping there would be something
05:59that would happen in the coming months
06:01that could rescue failure,
06:04a victory out of the jaws of failure.
06:06And he couldn't leave
06:07because it would mean
06:09an abrupt political failure at home,
06:12the end of his domestic political agenda.
06:17Same for Donald Trump.
06:19I know you argue that Iran is targeting
06:22Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
06:24because it wants these Gulf governments
06:26to question whether hosting American forces
06:28makes them safer or turns them into targets.
06:31Could this war ultimately drive the United States
06:34out of the region completely?
06:37I think there's a substantial chance
06:40that will be the case in about a year
06:42or maybe after at least six months.
06:46In the next six months,
06:48I think that what you are seeing
06:49is President Trump is digging in his heels
06:53because if President Trump were to withdraw
06:57of the 50,000 U.S. troops from the region,
07:01the 20 naval ships, the two carriers,
07:03this probably would calm down Iran.
07:06I think that would be the case.
07:08But this would be the biggest of the L's
07:10tattooed on his chest,
07:12the biggest loser in America.
07:14So, you know, we had the TV show,
07:16The Biggest Loser.
07:17Well, this would then be,
07:18everybody will make jokes about Trump in that way.
07:20And so what you're seeing is Trump realizes that
07:25and he may sincerely have thought
07:28that what he was doing was the right thing.
07:31We may never know that.
07:32But right now, the political incentives
07:36for President Trump are, I think, driving the train.
07:39And that's why he's escalating
07:42when everybody's telling him
07:43the military case for the war is not there.
07:46And I agree with that.
07:48I would not be advising President Trump to escalate
07:51because the national welfare is not,
07:56it doesn't help the national welfare.
07:58But Trump is worried about political survival.
08:02Let me challenge you a little bit on this.
08:03I mean, you've argued that Iran is moving
08:06towards regional primacy,
08:07that it's going to be a regional hegemon,
08:09but it has suffered enormous militarily,
08:13its economy, its infrastructure destroyed.
08:15Are you mistaking Iran's ability to cause disruption
08:20for the ability to become a regional hegemon?
08:24No, what you're describing is temporary disruption
08:28for Iran that's recoverable over a period
08:31of six months, a year, year and a half.
08:35And even President Trump's advisors explain that.
08:39So this is not permanent damage to Iran.
08:44What you are seeing is that the blockade,
08:47what you're seeing at the bombing,
08:49is this is actually recoverable.
08:51And much of the stuff that's been hit,
08:53like, for example, the Navy,
08:55you often hear the Trump administration
08:58bragging about having sunk the Navy.
09:00Well, Iran is highly unlikely to rebuild that Navy
09:03because that Navy was doing it no good.
09:05And it doesn't need that Navy for its future
09:08to rise as a regional hegemon.
09:11What it needs is it needs greater
09:14and greater drone capability.
09:16That is what is on.
09:17It needs a giant amount of wealth.
09:20Controlling 20% of the world's energy is that.
09:23It needs a sphere of influence from Lebanon,
09:26with Hezebub through the Houthis to the Gulf.
09:28That is also already occurring.
09:31And it needs that nuclear capability
09:33because all the other major centers of world power,
09:36the United States, China, and Russia,
09:39all have nuclear weapons.
09:40And I think in probably about 12 months or a year,
09:44it's possible even less,
09:46Iran is going to cross the nuclear threshold.
09:48And that's because it needs that
09:51for its longer-term security.
09:53And it's right on the cusp of it.
09:55Professor Pape, we're out of time,
09:57but we certainly appreciate you sharing your insights
10:00and giving us a timeline here,
10:02events moving forward.
10:04We don't hear that very often.
10:06We will be watching events and watching the calendar.
10:09Thank you very much.
10:11Absolutely. Thank you.
Comments