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  • 2 days ago
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00:00you know we are seeing signs of maturity across the entire landscape and definitely for netflix
00:04as well so you know moderating uh revenue growth is is definitely a big red flag here and we've
00:11seen the revenue growth actually come down pretty substantially which is what i think is really
00:16spooking investors right because in the first quarter you had about 16 revenue growth almost
00:2014 for the second quarter and now when you look at their guidance for the third quarter it's 11.7
00:26which was well below what consensus was expecting so this this really i think feeds into that whole
00:32investor anxiety about uh you know what the catalysts are going forward for this name
00:39and this is not something that can be solved with more spending on content and making sure you have
00:43the latest hot show or the latest franchise is it well uh they actually scarlet to that point they're
00:51actually boosting content spending pretty significantly this year almost 10 to 20 billion
00:56dollars that's the highest ever that they would be spending on content uh but you know if you look
01:01at the engagement report which they published yesterday yes they do have you know this very
01:06broad swath of content um and and but but at the end of the day we're not necessarily seeing that
01:13resonate into what you know the metric that all investors are focused on which is engagement because
01:20while the total number of hours viewed did grow slightly two percent from last year the viewing
01:26hours per subscriber is actually declining and and the big worry i think for investors is that as we get
01:33disruption from short form video from youtube from you know instagram tick tock and all of these other
01:39social media platforms can netflix actually retain that you know engagement metric and is it only going to slip
01:46further so gisa do you think we're heading towards a more consolidation in streaming maybe as companies
01:53chase scale and profits i i think we already saw that right so netflix actually did uh go after warner
02:00brothers discovery uh streaming and studio business last year pretty aggressively until they finally lost to
02:07paramount skydance i think you know at this point yes netflix is doing little little things you know whether
02:13it's adding uh you know short form content whether it's going into live events whether it's you know
02:19doing a little bit more in gaming but none of these are transformative enough you know we need
02:24some kind of a step change catalyst here and we're really not seeing anything so maybe mna maybe some kind
02:31of a transformative partnership maybe some kind of a big acquisition will finally move the needle for
02:36netflix but we have to wait and watch that's so interesting and i know this is something you've written
02:41about gita this idea that netflix now has mna ambitions um when it had kind of denied that it was
02:47looking to do that it's always prioritize organic growth um and reinvesting in its own business what
02:52does that say about um the state of the streaming wars overall that netflix needs to buy to to consolidate
03:00its grip on the market yeah i mean we're really seeing competition kind of intensifying and we're going
03:06to see that only intensify further scarlet once paramount closes on its acquisition of you know
03:12warner brothers and hbo and netflix really needs to kind of beef up the content because obviously
03:17it's the lack of those breakout hits yes they did have great content they did have a great pipeline
03:23yes we did see good growth and viewing hours but that's just not enough as we have more and more
03:28of
03:29uh you know it's not just competition and streaming though that that's that's the problem it's
03:33competition from all kinds of platforms you know we we talked about the social media platforms uh
03:38and and that's really what netflix has to kind of defend its turf against and for that they have to
03:43come up with bigger better more engaging content uh and they they might very well need to buy a studio
03:51for that what about the live sports podcast and ads um initiatives how meaningful are those when it
03:57comes to driving growth are you bullish on them do you i feel like scarlet and i were talking about
04:02it
04:02and almost everyone has a podcast these days yeah so on the margin i think it definitely helps because
04:08you know at the end of the day netflix is you know something you go home to in the evening
04:12and then
04:12you're watching it but i think with podcasts it's something that they're trying to build on through
04:17the day right they're trying to build on engagement uh you know anytime you pick up your phone you have
04:23some content that you can kind of listen to or or look at and that is really what they were
04:28trying to
04:28go after um but at the you know again it's on the margin yes it helps but doesn't move the
04:35needle
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