00:00I mean, AI and as often tech is the most important structural trend we have, and it's the most important
00:05driver of equities and possibly portfolios now, because tech and equities are getting bigger and bigger in portfolios, but it's
00:12going through cycles, and I think it's going through cycles within the AI ecosystem, it's going through sentiment cycles, and
00:18I think that's a bit what we're dealing with here.
00:20I think you had a very cyclical element, like memory chips, all this kind of capex spend, the takeover as
00:28a driver, and as you were saying, the MAX 7, the hyperscalers actually came under pressure, they've been really underperforming,
00:35and I think that's reversing a bit right now, it got a bit extreme, like the momentum behind the semis
00:40versus the kind of software, the momentum versus semis versus the hyperscalers was getting a bit extreme, the positioning was
00:46getting a bit extreme, we looked at this, levered positioning, levered ETFs,
00:50options, retail, and I think that's reversing right now, but I think the overall structural trend around AI, in our
00:56view, is intact, and I think the hyperscalers are quite well positioned right now, because they still own a lot
01:02of the infrastructure, a lot of that ecosystem is tied to them, so the big concern people currently have is,
01:08what if they cut back the AI capex, is it really bad for the semiconductors, probably it's not going to
01:13be great, and we have to be honest, they had like a blistering earnings growth, but it might be quite
01:18good for the hyperscalers to start talking
01:20about efficiency, and to start talking about focusing on monetizing the technology rather than just spending.
01:26Okay, so is that where we go back to, we went from hyperscalers to memory, now we go from memory
01:31back into hyperscalers, or maybe just at the margin?
01:34I think what will happen, as always the case, in a late cycle, kind of tech revolution is dispersion, I
01:41mean the dispersion is just shocking, what you see between some of the Mac 7 even, and obviously between the
01:46different sectors, that will continue,
01:48there will be winners, there will be losers, some companies might decide to step back a bit, kind of outsource
01:53some of the AI research, maybe give their cloud computing, their data centers away, in terms of capacity, you heard
02:01some comments on that recently,
02:02so over the next few months, and possibly longer, there will be a lot of dispersion, and I think you're
02:09right, in the very near term, I would not be surprised if the Mac 7 or the hyperscalers will trade
02:15a bit better, and if the semiconductors continue to be quite volatile.
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