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European members of NATO are discreetly yet promptly establishing a defense framework intended to operate independently of US conventional leadership, highlighted by the recent summit in Ankara, which underscores that reliance on American support is no longer assured. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Europe's priorities have shifted from accommodating the Trump administration to facilitating a seamless transition towards a defense structure led by Europe. An examination of US strategic commitments indicates that seven American states, characterized by their substantial NATO-related defense industry workforce, military base presence, and forward-deployed partnerships, are most vulnerable to significant security and economic challenges should the transatlantic relationship deteriorate further.

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00:00Europe has quietly started planning for a NATO without America.
00:03The Carnegie Endowment reports that allies at the Ankara Summit
00:06are no longer focused on appeasing President Trump.
00:10They are engineering a Europe-led defense structure
00:13built to function without U.S. conventional leadership.
00:16This is the biggest shift in transatlantic security in 70 years.
00:20And seven U.S. states are the ones most exposed to the consequences.
00:24The states with the largest NATO-linked defense industry workforces,
00:28the most military partnerships with Europe,
00:30and the biggest forward-deployment agreements stand to lose.
00:34The most, economically and strategically,
00:37if America's role in NATO continues to shrink.
00:40Trump has signaled he wants Europe to take primary responsibility for conventional defense.
00:45Europe is now taking him at his word
00:47and building the structure to make that happen.
00:50The question is whether America is ready for what that means.
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