- 2 days ago
八点最热报 | 柔佛州选进入倒数，外界关注的焦点已不只是国阵是否胜选，而是华裔选民是否继续支持行动党。去年沙巴州选，行动党8战全败，掀起华裔票仓崩塌的讨论，如今同样的问题延烧到柔佛。专家认为，柔佛未必重演沙巴，因为缺乏像民兴党般的替代力量，但行动党仍可能面对投票率下降、支持率缩水、多数票减少等挑战。这场州选最大的意义，不在于最终谁执政，而在于它能不能成为观察华裔政治情绪变化的风向标。（主播：萧慧敏）
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00A reminder before watching the video
00:01There's more content on trending websites.
00:04The Johor election has already begun.
00:06Chinese people who pay attention to political trends
00:08The most important issue?
00:09It's no longer about whether Barisan Nasional will win.
00:11Because many analyses believe
00:12Johor's political affiliation
00:14There wasn't much suspense involved.
00:15UMNO regains control of state governments?
00:18It's almost a done deal.
00:19What is truly worth observing is...
00:21Another thing
00:23That is, Chinese American voters
00:24Will it be the same as before?
00:25Support the DAP
00:27This issue has attracted attention.
00:29Because of Sabah's precedent
00:31Still vivid in my mind
00:33Last year's Sabah state election
00:34The DAP is contesting eight seats.
00:35completely annihilated
00:37Even the six states that were originally congested
00:39They couldn't even hold onto the eight large bell-shaped bullets.
00:41That election was more than just a defeat.
00:44More like a Chinese-American stronghold
00:46A sudden political avalanche
00:49The same question now
00:50Start drifting towards Johor
00:51More importantly
00:53One seat in Johor's 56 states
00:55Up to thirty-four seats
00:57What is it considered?
00:58On the brink of war
01:00For the PAP
01:01This time, there is no so-called fixed deposit area.
01:04There is no safe that you can rest easy with.
01:07And if Sabah is the first domino to fall...
01:10Will Johor be the next country to be included?
01:13Will Johor become the death site for DAP (Democratic Action Party)?
01:16There are now some anti-rocket online trolls.
01:19He kept posting pictures of plates of eggs.
01:21When asked how many eggs the Rockets would get in Johor,
01:26Regarding this question...
01:27Sofian, CEO of the Modica Polling Center
01:29Political scientist Pan Yongqiang's answer is...
01:31not necessarily
01:32Because of the distance between Sabah and Johor
01:34There is actually a key difference
01:37Sabah Chinese voters shifted their allegiance back then
01:40That was largely due to the rise of celebrity fans.
01:43He not only possesses a strong local narrative
01:45And more importantly
01:45He showed voters a possible alternative to governing.
01:50After Chinese voters left the PAP
01:52There is a clear new destination
01:54However, the situation in Johor is different.
01:57There are no celebrity fans here.
01:58None of them can be completely replicated.
02:00The political power of the star party
02:02Therefore, Johor Weekly Selection
02:04It is unlikely that a large-scale event like Sabah will occur.
02:06Ticket source transfer situation
02:08What might actually happen is a different kind of change.
02:11Declining voter enthusiasm
02:13Support rate shrinks
02:14Majority votes decreased
02:16Those seats that were once safe have become less safe.
02:19If Sabah was a sudden landslide...
02:23Johor is more like a slow-moving geological shift.
02:27It may not immediately destroy the entire mountain.
02:30But it is enough to change the future landscape.
02:32That's why many analysts believe...
02:35The greatest significance of Johor Week
02:37It doesn't matter who ultimately comes to power.
02:39The question is whether it can become
02:42A barometer for observing changes in Chinese American political sentiment
02:46Because Johor has always held special significance.
02:49That region has a considerable number of cities nationwide.
02:51There are also half-urban Chinese voters
02:53It is also one of the key states that the DAP has long been involved in.
02:57past elections
02:58Where Johor Chinese votes go
03:00Often highly overlapping with the overall trend in West Malaysia
03:04In other words
03:05Johor may not determine national politics
03:08However, its reaction often anticipates national political developments.
03:14Sabah Weekly Selection Last year
03:16The DAP's eight seats were all lost.
03:18They couldn't even hold onto one of the six states they originally owned.
03:21This is seen as a political earthquake that caused the collapse of the Chinese-American voter base.
03:24Now that the Johor election is getting closer...
03:27A problem began to emerge
03:28Will Johor become the next Sabah for the DAP?
03:32Will Chinese American voters turn around again?
03:35Political scientist Pan Yongqiang and Director of the Modica Polling Center
03:39Sufian thought it was unlikely.
03:41The two elections appeared similar
03:43But their essence is different.
03:45Because the Chinese voters in Sabah shifted their allegiance back then.
03:47More than just disappointment with the DAP
03:49Instead, they saw the Democratic Progressive Party as an alternative.
03:52However, there are some subtle differences between this place and Sabah.
03:56Chinese voters in Sabah are shifting their support to the Star Party.
03:59Because at the time, the Star Party claimed he could govern.
04:03Therefore, Chinese voters in Sabah need to make a choice.
04:06It requires the willingness to support a local political party to form a government.
04:10Continue to support the DAP
04:12Of course, there is a distinction between the local party and the West Malaysian party.
04:16This also includes holding elections in Sabah.
04:18The Warisan Star Party claims he can govern.
04:21So Chinese voters either try or expect
04:25A local political party
04:26A multi-ethnic local political party can govern
04:29So a turn was made.
04:31A decision
04:32Chinese voters in Sabah
04:34Sabah Chinese voters repost
04:36Sabah Chinese voters repost
04:38That was a choice that was highly emphasized.
04:39Even more in Sabah
04:41There is a party party
04:42There is a party party
04:43There is a party party party party party party
04:44There are many parties
04:46It will also be the ruling party's party party party party
04:50Then their ruling party's party party party party party
05:02However, for the DAP
05:06What we really need to worry about
05:08Perhaps it's not about where the voters went.
05:10The question is whether they are still willing to come out and vote.
05:13Sufian pointed out
05:14The challenges facing the DAP today
05:16Actually, it's the supporters who are getting tired.
05:18Back then, many people voted for change.
05:21But only three years later
05:23Many supporters began to feel
05:24Change is not as fast as imagined
05:26And the reforms were not as profound as imagined.
05:29I believe that choosing DAP is a way to choose these parties.
05:32Actually, it's about the party's party.
05:34Perhaps almost all parties
05:36Basically, people aren't very enthusiastic anymore.
05:38Because they were tired
05:39They failed.
05:39They chose to change.
05:40They haven't changed much.
05:41DAP's traditional story
05:43DAP has always had this kind of story.
05:45This image
05:45Is it to become the opposing side?
05:46They are talking about the issue of democracy.
05:49They are talking about the issue of democracy.
05:50They are now a part of it.
05:52Therefore, they did not compare in this role.
05:54It is very difficult to maintain the image of a warrior.
05:57When your current manager
05:59It is difficult to maintain
06:00even so
06:00Many analyses believe
06:02The Johor state election may not necessarily replicate the Sabah scenario.
06:05Because Johor voters consider
06:07Not just the state government
06:08Rather, it's the entire national politics.
06:10Pan Yongqiang pointed out the ownership of the Johor state government
06:12It's actually quite clear.
06:14Barisan Nasional, especially UMNO, regaining power
06:17There was almost no choice.
06:19Therefore, what voters are really thinking about is...
06:21Should we continue to give the DAP a chance?
06:24Do we still need checks and balances from the DAP?
06:26His considerations included saying
06:28If the DAP collapses in Johor
06:31Or lose the election
06:32The impact on the roadside
06:34Zheng Meilan and the National Election
06:36If that's the case...
06:37Will this weaken the overall strength of the Western Alliance?
06:39Finally, it became...
06:40A military unification would require forming a government with the National Alliance.
06:42Let the Islamic Party Central Committee take power
06:45That point of consideration
06:47This may involve
06:48Not just Johor
06:50The political landscape of the future
06:51This also includes the national government.
06:53This is why
06:54More and more analysts believe
06:55The greatest significance of the Johor state election
06:57It's not about who wins or loses.
06:59But who still has support?
07:01Johor is not the end of the battle
07:03Rather, it's a weather vane
07:05From a political history perspective
07:07Johor has always been an observer
07:08An important window into the political changes among the Chinese community in West Malaysia
07:11That's exactly what deserves our attention.
07:12It's not about how many seats the DAP won.
07:14Rather, it's the support rate among Chinese Americans.
07:16Will there be any changes?
07:33What if the DAP doesn't do well in this Johor state election?
07:38This does not mean we can directly conclude that...
07:40He will also collapse in the national election.
07:42Or Simon might also lose power.
07:44Therefore, at that time, some people who are more inclined to reform
07:47I tend to favor this country continuing to maintain its private customs and traditions.
07:51Or perhaps a preference is placed on values that prevent Islamization.
07:57civil
07:57They will still gather around Simon.
08:04So, what's truly worth observing in this election week?
08:06It's not about how many seats the DAP won.
08:08But how impressively can the PAP win?
08:11Will Chinese American voters continue to support their country even with tears in their eyes?
08:14Or will they start expressing their dissatisfaction through voting?
08:16What these numbers reflect
08:18Not just the political climate in Johor
08:20More likely, it will be the upcoming Negeri Sembilan weekly election.
08:22The upcoming Malacca election
08:24Even the first signs of the 16th General Election
08:28The biggest suspense in the Johor election right now is...
08:30Perhaps it's not about whether Chinese American voters will turn around.
08:33The question is whether they will leave.
08:35Because Chinese voters may not have betrayed the DAP
08:38But they were tired.
08:39The most dangerous thing in politics is never that the opponent becomes stronger.
08:42Instead, the supporters began to fall silent.
08:44As more and more empty seats appear at polling stations
08:48What the PAP should be most worried about
08:50It's possible that no one took his ticket.
08:52But who no longer votes?
08:54It's more terrifying for Chinese Americans not to vote than to vote for their opponents.
09:01Welcome to subscribe
09:02Also subscribe
Comments