00:07Hello and welcome to 12 Minutes With.
00:10My guest today is Jacob Nagel, a former national security adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
00:17and a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
00:22Jacob Nagel, thank you for being with us today.
00:24So you've been very critical of the Iran-U.S. deal to seize hostilities. Can you explain us why?
00:31What I'm criticizing is that it's really giving Iran exactly what they want and need now.
00:39Not in the size they want, but they are getting, as I call, cash payment
00:45because the streets are open for them to export for the next 60 days.
00:52Believe me, it will be much more than their oil.
00:55So billions of dollars will start spilling into Iran.
01:01Of course, they're not making from these billions food, water and good things for their people.
01:07They're going to rebuild their missile program and support the terror, especially Hezbollah, Hamas and others.
01:15I think they are not going to run to rebuild their nuclear program while Trump is around.
01:22If it was 18 months to a bomb before, and I'm talking a bomb on a missile.
01:26Now it's about three years.
01:28I had to wait two years that Trump is there, so it's five years.
01:32Iran is feeling, even though they are on their knees, very weak.
01:37They got it from the U.S. and Israel on all fronts.
01:42They are saying we are the winners.
01:44Why?
01:44They took the only chip they had, the Strait of Tormoz.
01:49They closed it.
01:50And Trump, you know, listening to his closed allies, J.D. Vance, the Vice President,
01:59Witkoff and Kushner, and not listening to Exit and Rubio and others.
02:05He decided to go, and again, it's legitimate for him, but he has to say so.
02:09He decided to prefer now the American interest, the economy.
02:14He wants to take down the price of oil.
02:18His allies in the Gulf, Saudis, Bahrain.
02:20Well, he had the midterm coming in November, sir, right?
02:23Exactly.
02:24He had the midterm coming in November.
02:26People are talking about his birthday, Mondial, Independence Day.
02:32Believe me, those are nonsense.
02:34Right.
02:34What he had in mind is that the people in the U.S., they don't know where is Iran,
02:38where is Israel, what is enriched uranium.
02:40They just know how much they are paying for a gallon of oil when they go to the gas stations.
02:46So you think this deal is even worse than what was negotiated in 2015?
02:51You're calling it again a deal, it's not a deal.
02:53Okay, the deal to cease hostilities is how I described it.
02:56It's a memorandum of understanding.
02:58Okay, so this MOU is worse than what was signed in 2015.
03:02Again, it can cause to a final agreement.
03:07Maybe there will be an agreement, I'm not sure, because the Iranians are the best negotiators in the world
03:12and they will drag it for two and a half years until Trump is leaving office.
03:16But if there will be a deal, it looks like it's going to be worse than the one that Obama
03:22did in 2015.
03:22Okay.
03:23And Ram criticized very much. Why?
03:26Because I don't know what will be in the nuclear side.
03:30But remember that it's ten years almost later, the Iranians are ahead in the technology.
03:35We took them back in the fissile material, especially in the weaponization,
03:39because the most critical scientists, they are not there anymore.
03:43So was the swore worth it? If the MOU is worse, was the swore worth it?
03:49If what we had in 2015 was okay?
03:52Again, the deal of 2015 was horrible, not good, very bad.
03:57It was a direct pass for a bomb to Iran.
04:01Okay.
04:02Now, I don't know what will happen in this memorandum of understanding,
04:06because there is nothing, nothing about nuclear inside this memorandum of understanding.
04:11It's only opening rumors, giving Iran money, and that's it.
04:15Now, they are saying inside what they are going to talk about.
04:18I don't know what will be the result.
04:20So, now, Israel is not bound by this MOU.
04:24Israel signed a separate deal with Lebanon, brockered by the U.S.
04:30It's a deal. It's a ceasefire.
04:32Are you confident it's going to work, knowing that Hezbollah said he would not abide by it?
04:36And some members of Netanyahu's government, namely far-right ministers, said denounce the deal as null and void as well.
04:44So, what do you think is going to happen on the Lebanese front?
04:47Just put aside those in Israel that are denouncing from left and from right.
04:52I'm talking about the 80-90% of the Israeli population and Knesset members.
04:59This deal is good, and it's not excellent. Why?
05:02Why it's good?
05:03It says that Lebanon and Israel will decide about Lebanon and the sovereignty government of Lebanon.
05:10And it's written inside that Israel is not going to withdraw from Lebanon, from our positions there that are protecting
05:17our citizens, that we told them you can go back to your arms.
05:21But the size of this zone is under discussion, but yes, okay.
05:25Again, it's something that Israel is staying.
05:27We gave them two pilot stations, area, very close to what we call the yellow line, 10 kilometers from Israel,
05:35to see if they can clean it from Hezbollah.
05:38Now, while Hezbollah is not going to give up all of their weapons, this deal is not going to happen.
05:45But do you think it's going to work? It didn't work in 2024.
05:48I don't think that this deal will work in the place that the Lebanon sovereignty government will take out the
05:59weapons from Hezbollah. No way.
06:00Because they don't want to? Because they can't?
06:02No, because they can't.
06:04They very, very much want to.
06:06It's written inside the agreement.
06:08The disagreement will come into force only after all the groups that are holding weapons inside Lebanon are going to
06:17give it up.
06:18Do you ask me if this Lebanon, this weak Lebanon government will be able to do it alone? No.
06:25The only way that Hezbollah will give up is weapons if their supporters, the IRGC, the Iran that are now
06:32getting money from the deal that we just, not the deal, the MU just talked before, they'll spill money for
06:38them.
06:38If there is no regime, crazy regime in Iran, the Hezbollah will give up.
06:43But then it's a catch-22. Then it's a catch-22 because Iran has said that the deal would never
06:50work if still these do not cease against Lebanon. So then what? Then there is no possible good ending.
06:58You are totally right that there is a catch-22. So there is a catch-22 as an American from
07:04the US-Iran deal and the Lebanon-Israel deal.
07:08Now we are saying, still, the US is our best ally. We like what they are doing. We work together
07:14with them.
07:15At the end, they will understand who is the Iranians and they will go back to make sure that the
07:20work is finished.
07:22And now they decided to go on the economy way. It's okay, their legitimacy.
07:28We are not obeyed by this MU. We have the Lebanon. The most important thing about the Lebanon-Israel deal
07:35is that it's like putting a finger in the eyes of the Iranians, telling them, you did a deal with
07:41the US.
07:41Okay, Lebanon is not part of the deal. In Lebanon, we are the one that's calling the shots.
07:46Now you ask me how it is going to finish. I don't know. I don't know. You called it very,
07:52very correctly. It's a catch-22.
07:55And as always in our area, in our region, it's very interesting to be here. It's always something to do.
08:02Israel is strong. Israel is going to protect its citizens, especially in the north, but also in the south, like
08:09we did in Gaza, in Lebanon and in Judea and Samaria and other places.
08:15In Iran, I hope the US will understand that the Iranians are not telling them the truth and will go
08:20back to what we did before.
08:22Okay. Very quickly, sir. There's been a bit of a tension between Netanyahu and President Trump recently, and J.D.
08:32Vance actually also took stage and explained that Israel should stay in its lane.
08:37Do you think the relationship between the US and Israel has been strained recently?
08:42Again, you're putting the right point. Israel and the US are best allies. They are our best friends. They are
08:53supporting Israel in the UN Security Council. They are supporting us with many other things.
08:59But as I said before, President Trump now, for this point, I think he is doing a mistake, but it's
09:06legitimate from Israel, decided to prefer the American interest, meaning the economy, taking down the price of oil, being ready
09:17for the mid-term because his people told him, otherwise, you're going to lose house and senate.
09:22We like very much that the US will be with us. Sometimes, if they want his interest, okay, they will
09:29come to their senses and decisions very soon. They know who is good and who is bad.
09:34No, I understand. I understand that Israel wants to be strong on its own. However, it's dependent on US aid,
09:41military aid.
09:42No, no.
09:43And, well, partially. I mean, I know it has a very strong defense, you know, industry, but my point mostly
09:48is that how can it be a stable Middle East if the interests of the United States and Israel diverge
09:55so much right now?
09:55And again, you said before about the dependency. Israel is strong. Yes, we are getting an aid. I signed on
10:01the name of Israel, the last agreement of 38 billion, and I think there will be another one. But we
10:06are depending on the US, mainly on the main platforms, F-15, F-16, F-35. We're not going to
10:14build them alone. But the US is selling those also to other countries. Are we going to do it with
10:18an American money, Israel money? It's totally different.
10:21I don't think the Americans are going to, you know, with all those things for us. All the other things,
10:27ammunition, tank shells, artillery, many, many air to ground. We are doing it on our own. Israel is not depending
10:36in the United States. We are independent.
10:38Last question, if I may, we talked about a possible strained relation between Israel and the US. Now, I'd like
10:45to turn very briefly to the EU. I mean, you're aware, I guess, of the diplomatic spot that happened between
10:52the EU foreign policy chief Kayakalas and Israel's foreign minister Gideon Sakh.
10:59Are you worried about the future of EU-Israel relationship?
11:03I'm sorry, you're not going to like my answer. I was working very hard. When I was an Israeli national
11:08security advisor, every month I was taking 28 EU ambassadors in Israel and talking to them once a month. They
11:16didn't like it. I didn't like it. Unfortunately, we are asking the United States. The EU is not relevant.
11:21Now, about EU-Israel, at the end, I think that also the EU countries will come to their senses and
11:28will realize who are the good guys, who are the bad guys. See, some of the countries inside Europe, and
11:33I don't want to say names, you go in the streets, there is terror inside Europe, I think, and there
11:39are some European countries that understood it and they took the law to their end.
11:44Some already lost the war against the immigrants. I think Europe is in a big problem that they have to
11:51solve. And their problem is not Israel.
11:53Thank you, sir. Thank you for your time.
11:55Thank you very much.
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