00:00I think that there is a decent chance. He's made it very clear that they're going to focus on the
00:04data. So the data is almost even more important than it ever was. And we've got a few numbers coming
00:09up, PCE in particular, which they do care about. We think because there's a financial service and wealth effect feed
00:16through, i.e. our stocks higher, maybe they're a little bit off today, but in general, they're much higher. That
00:21is going to potentially lead to an inflation print that would suggest that a hike is reasonable. And so we
00:26think it's 50-50.
00:2750-50 by when? July. If a lot of indicators and a lot of different pieces of the inflation data
00:34point to, something needs to be done. We saw how the votes fell in this past week. There are people
00:41on the committee who are very much pushing for a hike. And so I think it is on the table.
00:46And that's where 50-50 may sound overwhelming. But what it means is we are looking and we're looking in
00:52the immediate, which I think is a little bit different than the whole world of forward guidance we used to
00:56have, which was we're guiding you out far. And now it's about the here and now.
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