00:00Your portfolio manager Tiffany Wade at Columbia Fred Needle. There's a lot to kind of put together in this morning's
00:06session. But again technology continues to be the story in this market. Is that true for you? Yes that's absolutely
00:13true. We did see tech stocks take a bit of a breather including semi stocks last week but they're off
00:17to the races again this week and that continues to lead the market higher. Of course for investors of all
00:24types the outlook for monetary policy and rates is important. It was really interesting
00:29seeing Noriel Roubini on Bloomberg television earlier basically saying now it's still tech. Just listen to this real quick. People
00:37obsessed with the Fed whether it's 50 basis points higher whether it's right now. What's the difference. The key story
00:43is tech boom and that's going to be the most important first order impact of anything else. You know Tiffany
00:49I grew up in the Bloomberg newsroom school of well you've got to understand the rate environment because higher rates
00:55discount the present value of future cash flows and future cash flows are one way
00:59that we measure the health and valuation of technology companies big and small. Does the Fed really matter at all.
01:06I think the Fed still matters a lot and it matters a lot for tech stocks as well. It matters
01:10a lot for high growth stocks. We did see a slightly more hawkish Fed meeting last week. Kevin Warsh's first
01:16Fed meeting. However you know quite a bit has changed since the data they were looking at last week including
01:21the MOU between U.S. and Iran. So I think we might see you know potentially some different news coming
01:26out of the next Fed meeting if oil prices continue to normalize.
01:29And in the background of course for the Bloomberg tech audience you know the very there are headlines coming from
01:35the vice president and his participation in in the talks between the United States and Iran. We're very soon going
01:42to start talking about earnings again.
01:44And I just wondered Tiffany from from Columbia Thread Neal's perspective how important earnings momentum is going to be for
01:51a market where technology continues to dominate. We're going to get a first read on that from Micron this Wednesday.
01:58I think
01:58that's going to be very important to see if the momentum from these stocks can continue. We're going to want
02:03to see continued revenue upside from a lot of the semiconductor stocks and we're also probably going to want to
02:08see continued CapEx positive CapEx comments from all of the hyperscalers that will help keep the spending party going for
02:14all of the associated infrastructure names related to AI build out.
02:18It's really hard in aggregate to kind of say where's the beginning middle and end here. You know I think
02:23you'd note right Tiffany that last week some of the chip stocks the picks and shovels took a bit of
02:28a breather and off we are again today with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index outperforming
02:33and in a gauge that's up 90 percent year to date. How long can that carry on for. I think
02:39we're going to see this continue for another couple of quarters. The outlook for these stocks related to AI infrastructure
02:45spending is tremendous and the revenue and earnings estimates continue to be revised higher.
02:50And I think as long as that continues you'll continue to see these stocks working. And some of the announcement
02:55we've seen you know with Micron Anthropic and then also around you know Microsoft and you know more data center
03:02spending
03:03in Texas continues to you know reinforce the story that this spending is going to continue for another couple of
03:10years and probably continue at a faster pace than it has been
03:12for the last one or two years. So I think we'll continue to see those positive earnings revisions that will
03:17continue to push the stocks higher. We started the program today talking about
03:21SpaceX's inaugural bond sale. But I just use that as a case study that with CapEx both in equity the
03:31markets being flooded right. Alphabet doing its offering the use of corporate credit to fund what's going on.
03:39How closely are you tracking these companies going to market to get the capital they need to fund these big
03:46commitments. We're certainly focused on the outcome of
03:50these bond sales because I think it's an indicator of the appetite for the market for the amount of CapEx
03:55spending that the companies are doing. It's also an indicator of future CapEx
03:59expectations. So as those bond sales continue to increase in size it can you know it means that CapEx spending
04:06intentions continue to rise. So it's certainly something
04:08that we're watching to indicate the health of the CapEx spending cycle and also the intention of a lot of
04:13the large companies around additional
04:15spending for AI infrastructure. Tiffany real quick what's the next thing you're watching for on your calendar. I think it's
04:23probably earnings
04:24because Micron this Wednesday is certainly a big one that we'll be keeping an eye out for.
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