00:00Well, I think the deal is very favorable to Iran, and the one issue that mattered most to Trump, which
00:07is opening the Strait of Hormuz, whether Iran tries to charge tolls, for example, or imposes other conditions on maritime
00:17traffic, this agreement does not prohibit that.
00:19I think Trump had put himself in a very difficult position. It was clear he wanted out of the war.
00:26He's worried about the price of gasoline in the United States.
00:30So, Mr. Walton, thank you very much for speaking with A&I. I'll begin by asking you, of course, on
00:35the USA-Iran deal. The signing was done yesterday in Versailles.
00:41The leaders of the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum, which has also been released by
00:48the Iranian president.
00:49From the U.S. point of view, the deal leaves a lot to be desired. Washington is giving up a
00:54lot for very little in return.
00:57How do you, as former National Security Advisor for President Trump, what are your views on the deal, sir?
01:05Well, I think the deal is very favorable to Iran, and the one issue that mattered most to Trump, which
01:13is opening the Strait of Hormuz, is not fully resolved by this deal.
01:16I mean, we'll see what happens. We'll see whether Iran tries to charge tolls, for example, or imposes other conditions
01:24on maritime traffic.
01:26This agreement does not prohibit that. I think Trump had put himself in a very difficult position. It was clear
01:33he wanted out of the war.
01:35He's worried about the price of gasoline in the United States. He wanted to release more Gulf oil into international
01:42markets to get global prices down,
01:44and therefore the price in the United States. And he didn't really care what he gave up to get it.
01:50And I think that's very evident in the generous terms that are provided to Iran, the restrictions that the U
01:56.S. places on its own forced deployments in the region,
02:00and the restrictions that are placed on Israel, purport to be placed on Israel by this deal. It's more than
02:06the Iranian regime ever could have hoped for.
02:10Yes, Mr. Bolton, critics have also said that this deal gives Iran sanction relief, access to frozen assets and strategic
02:17breathing room in exchange for promises that are difficult to verify.
02:23In this, in your view, sir, a repeat of the structural flaws of the JCPO?
02:28Well, exactly. Whether it's Iran or North Korea, these rogue states try to bargain on their nuclear programs in the
02:37same way.
02:38The first thing they say is, give me a lot of tangible economic benefits up front.
02:42And in return for those benefits, down the road, I will agree to limitations on the nuclear program.
02:48And time and time again, when people have reached agreements, whether it's with Iran or North Korea,
02:55Iran and North Korea get the economic benefits, but somehow they just never get around to putting the restrictions on
03:02their nuclear program.
03:03I mean, we have bought this horse now five or six different times with Iran alone, and Trump has just
03:10bought it again.
03:11And so Israel, talking about Israel now, it has historically viewed any softening towards Iran with deep suspicion.
03:19Does this deal risk creating a strategic rift between Washington and Jerusalem?
03:24And also, sir, if Iran emerges economically stronger while retaining proxy influence in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen,
03:31has the U.S. effectively strengthened the very axis it sought to contain?
03:38Well, I think the relationship between the U.S. and Israel is stronger than a mistake in this case by
03:46the President
03:47and the resulting breach in the personal relationship between Netanyahu and Trump.
03:52We'll see what happens here.
03:54Iran's performance is yet to come.
03:57And knowing Iran, I don't think that they're going to do anything to give people confidence
04:03that they'll meet any of the rest of the objectives stated in the memorandum.
04:09The fact is that Iran was badly hurt by the U.S. blockade,
04:14which had stopped essentially all export of Iranian oil and therefore blocked all revenues to Iran
04:21that the regime desperately needs to stay alive.
04:24Once it can sell oil again on the international markets, which is effectively right now,
04:29that revenue stream will resume again.
04:33And the regime will not use it for the benefit of the Iranian people.
04:36It will use to re-entrench itself in power, rebuild the Revolutionary Guard,
04:43rebuild the terrorist proxy network, rebuild the nuclear program.
04:46And the threat that was posed when the attacks began will simply appear again.
04:54So Trump has said that the deal ensures Iran will not get a nuclear weapon.
04:58Do you trust Iran's commitments in case this agreement collapses?
05:01Because we still have 60 days of negotiations.
05:04What are the likely next steps, sanctions, cobalt action, military confrontation?
05:09Well, in terms of Iran's commitment, it doesn't mean anything.
05:12You know, Iran has committed multiple times in the past not to acquire or build its own nuclear weapons.
05:18It started in 1970 when it became a non-nuclear weapons state party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
05:26Now, that was under the Shah.
05:27But even after the 1979 revolution, the regime said time and time again it didn't want nuclear weapons.
05:35And it committed to that most recently, I think, in the 2015 nuclear deal.
05:40Iran is happy to say it won't acquire nuclear weapons.
05:44It just is lying when it says it.
05:48So, talking about G7 now and India-USA relationship.
05:52Yesterday, after more than one and a half years, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump met in person.
05:57They met on the sidelines of G7.
05:58There were many topics that were discussed, including the Prime Minister also took the issue of, you know,
06:04the killing of Indian seafarers by the American strike.
06:07First of all, what do you make out of that meeting?
06:10And how important is India today in America's wider strategic calculus?
06:17Well, it's not clear that very much constructive came out of it, any deliverables, as they say.
06:23But I do think it was important for Trump and Modi to meet again.
06:27Trump has always believed he has a good personal relationship with Modi.
06:32And I am hoping that the trade issues, the tariff issues can be put behind us.
06:40I personally am opposed to Trump's tariff program.
06:43I think it's a big mistake around the world from the U.S. perspective.
06:47It's been particularly unfairly applied to India, much more so than to China.
06:53And what I really hope comes for the first time is a strategic discussion between Trump and Modi on how
07:03to deal with the Chinese threat.
07:05It always, in the past, in the first term and so far in Trump's second term, it gets lost in
07:10a discussion of trade issues.
07:12And I'm not saying trade is unimportant because it is important, but the strategic questions are more important.
07:18And that's what those leaders should be focused on.
07:22President Trump has increasingly spoken in terms of a G2 world, suggesting that global stability may ultimately hinge in Washington
07:29and Beijing.
07:30Do you see that as a realistic recognition of geopolitical reality or a dangerous sidelining of allies in institutions like
07:37the G7?
07:38Well, I think it's a it's a dangerous sidelining of India.
07:42I mean, I think I think China's aspirations for hegemony along the Indo-Pacific periphery is really the one of
07:49the major issues, if not the major issue of the 21st century,
07:53which is why it seems to me that closer relations between India and the United States are so critical.
07:59That could come in a variety of ways in bilateral projects and policies in the Asian security quad, along with
08:07Japan and Australia,
08:09which I think is a very important institution.
08:11I wish we could make more out of it or in various other ways.
08:16And so it's a part of the problem is that Trump's focus is so heavily on trade almost all the
08:23time he speaks with foreign leaders.
08:25It's hard to get to anything else. But we can see what China's approach has been in East Asia across
08:32the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
08:35We know of the tensions along the line of actual control with India.
08:39You know, this problem isn't going away. It's getting bigger.
08:42And we either address it together or we're going to have to address it separately, which is not ideal.
08:49So under President Donald Trump, how do you see the quad grouping evolving?
08:53You know that India is the chair for this year's quad. We even held the foreign ministers meeting.
08:58And given Beijing's expanding footprint from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean,
09:03should the quad now move beyond diplomacy into intelligence sharing or other things?
09:10What are your views in quad, sir?
09:12Well, I think there are a lot of potential areas for cooperation that should be explored.
09:18I do think it has to go beyond diplomacy. And I think I think it's this is an opportunity to
09:26be creative.
09:27We're not where nobody's trying to use this to recreate NATO in the Asia Pacific.
09:33It's it's a very different environment. There are multiple ways in which countries can cooperate.
09:39But I do think that that the quad is a unique combination.
09:43It was really the initially the idea of Shinzo Abe when he was Prime Minister of Japan.
09:49But but other leaders have taken it up. And I think Prime Minister Takeichi, who is a kind of follower,
09:55who was a follower of Shinzo Abe, recognizes how important it is.
09:58I think the Australians do as well.
10:00So I would hope that we could have meetings on many levels on among intelligence professionals,
10:06with the militaries in many ways that would be helpful going forward.
10:12And I think there are others in the region that that could be invited to participate in it as well,
10:17at least for some activities. South Korea, for example, Singapore.
10:21So the more creative we are, the more flexible we can be and the more prepared in a variety of
10:28different areas
10:29is to handle the kind of threat that that many people see emerging from China,
10:34which thinks through its strategy very carefully, takes a long term perspective and has a plan it's working on.
10:43We need something in response to that.
10:46And how do you look at the US's policy when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war?
10:50Because President Trump has been saying that I had always thought that this would have been the easiest war to
10:56solve.
10:58Well, he, of course, was wrong about that and he didn't solve it in 24 hours either.
11:04The G7 declaration on the Ukraine war I thought was very good.
11:08I think many people were surprised that Trump signed on to it because it reflects a very strong expression of
11:14support for Ukraine.
11:16That, I think, is where the great majority of the American people are.
11:20Trump may have been skeptical of Ukraine, but I think in Congress and in the general population,
11:25there's enormous support for Ukraine.
11:27They're defending their territory against unprovoked aggression by Russia.
11:32And they've learned a lot of lessons in Ukraine that can be beneficial to the rest of us.
11:38They, by dint of battlefield necessity, have developed some of the best cyber warfare capabilities in the world.
11:44And many people believe that the Ukrainian army today is one of the best in the world overall, certainly the
11:50best in Europe.
11:51So there's a lot to be gained by supporting Ukraine.
11:55And I think, you know, more people should be helping out.
12:00I certainly hope the U.S. role in that regard increases.
12:05We'll see.
12:06Mr. Bolton, just last question, sir.
12:09Since we have closely worked with Trump and also on Iran, if you were sitting in the situation room today,
12:15would you advise President Trump to walk away from this deal or use the next 60 days to harden it
12:21dramatically?
12:23Well, you know, he signed it. That's a mistake. You know, you can't correct that now.
12:28But what I would insist is on absolutely strict performance by Iran.
12:33And I would focus, because the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is the center of this deal,
12:39I would focus on Iran meeting its international legal obligations.
12:44So a lot of people like to take that as the standard.
12:48And, you know, the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway.
12:51And that means whether you're a party to the Law of the Sea Treaty or not,
12:55there is a right of innocent passage through the strait for all commercial vessels.
12:59That means no tolls, no restrictions.
13:02There's no exercise of sovereignty over that right of innocent passage,
13:08not by Iran, not by Oman, not by any of the literal states of the Gulf.
13:13And if Iran varies from that conduct, which was the kind of conduct
13:18all the Gulf nations engaged in before the war, then I think the deal's off.
13:23That's what I'd advise them.
Comments