00:00so what happens after the u.s iran deal the new middle east order is coming to
00:06existence hello and welcome my name is pankaj misha thanks for watching one india
00:17after weeks of missile strikes military escalation months of fears of a wider
00:23regional war and growing uncertainty in global markets the united states and iran
00:29appear to have stepped back from the brink a ceasefire framework is taking shape diplomatic
00:35channels are reopening and the world is asking one big question what happens from here now what
00:43happens next is this simply a pause in the fighting or is it the beginning of a new geopolitical order
00:50in the middle east and perhaps more importantly who benefits from this deal the united states iran
00:57israel or the global economy let's break it down in simple terms first it is important to understand
01:06what both sides really want the united states does not necessarily need regime change in iran
01:12why would they go for it what washington wants is stability it wants to ensure that iran does not
01:20move closer to developing a nuclear weapon it also wants to protect american troops allies and strategic
01:27interests across the middle east iran on the other hand wants something very different tehran wants
01:34economic relief it wants sanctions eased it wants access to frozen assets and above all it wants
01:41security guarantees that it will not face another major military campaign in simple words neither side
01:48has defeated the other instead both sides are trying to secure their interests without
01:54entering a long and costly war now let's look at what america gains to begin with for washington the
02:03biggest victory is avoiding a regional war a prolonged conflict could have drawn in multiple countries
02:09across the gulf it could have disrupted shipping routes and it could have pushed energy prices sharply
02:15higher the united states also understands that another large-scale middle east war would be expensive
02:21politically economically and militarily by reaching an understanding with iran washington can claim now
02:28that diplomacy worked where military pressure alone could not that is an important message not only for
02:36the middle east but also for america's global leadership so what does iran gain then perhaps more than
02:45many people realize iran has demonstrated that it can challenge regional security arrangements and impose
02:52costs on its adversaries at the same time tehran understands that its economy cannot thrive under constant
02:59confrontation iran needs investment it needs trade it needs access to global markets and it needs oil
03:08revenues a deal with the united states creates the possibility of economic breathing space it does
03:15not solve all of iran's problems but it gives tehran a pathway towards greater stability and international
03:23engagement now let's talk about israel this may be where the biggest political impact is felt for years
03:30israel has viewed iran as its primary strategic threat its security doctrine has focused heavily on
03:37preventing iran from expanding its military and nuclear capabilities if direct u.s iran dialogue becomes
03:44more frequent israel could find itself operating in a more complicated strategic environment that does
03:52not mean israel becomes weaker far from it israel remains one of the most powerful military forces in
03:58the region but it does mean that washington may increasingly seek diplomatic management of iran
04:04rather than permanent confrontation along with the help of israel that shift could limit some of israel's
04:12strategic ambitions regarding iran as a result israeli leaders will likely push for strong security
04:18guarantees from the united states what about oil prices then this is where ordinary people around
04:25the world feel the impact like you and me during the crisis markets feared that the strait of hormuz
04:32could be disrupted for a very long time that narrow waterway carries a significant portion of world's
04:38oil exports if hormuz had been closed or heavily disputed over prices and oil prices could have
04:46surged dramatically now that tensions appear to be easing markets are beginning to price in greater
04:53stability lower geopolitical risk generally means lower oil prices and lower oil prices often mean lower
05:01transportation costs reduced inflation pressure and better economic conditions for consumers countries
05:08like india japan south korea and many european nations would benefit directly from a more stable energy
05:15market and what happens to the global financial markets this is something that all of us have been
05:21wondering markets dislike uncertainty you and i know that more than almost anything else war creates
05:30uncertainty investors become nervous they become jittery businesses delay decisions consumers spend less
05:37a reduction in tensions between washington and tehran sends a positive signal to global markets
05:43investors see reduced risks energy prices stabilize and confidence improves that does not mean markets
05:52will move in a straight line upward there are still many unresolved issues but the immediate threat of a
05:59major regional war would be significantly reduced that's for sure now comes the biggest question does this
06:06change the world order on the bigger picture the answer is yes but not overnight this crisis has shown that
06:15the middle east is no longer shaped by a single power alone that is either the united states or israel
06:22for that
06:23matter regional players such as iran saudi arabia turkey and others are increasingly influencing outcomes
06:31china has become more active diplomatically russia remains involved and america is adapting its role rather
06:37than dominating every development directly this points towards a more multipolar world a world where power
06:45is distributed across multiple centers rather than concentrated in one capital that trend was already underway
06:53the u.s iran understanding may accelerate it further so where does all this leave us
07:01the ceasefire or agreement is not the end of the story it is the beginning of a new chapter america
07:07wants security and stability iran wants economic relief and recognition israel wants strong security
07:14assurances so that iran doesn't come back again the world wants affordable energy and predictable markets
07:21balancing all these interests will be extremely difficult that is why the real test begins now the coming
07:29weeks and months will determine whether this becomes a lasting diplomatic breakthrough or a simply a pause
07:36before the next crisis one thing is clear the decisions made after this deal may shape not only
07:43the future of the middle east but also the direction of global politics energy markets and international
07:50international security for years to come thanks for watching
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