00:00Now, ating matandaan, last week, ang D.O.S.T. Pag-asa ay nagpalabas ng first El Niño advisory.
00:11And based on the latest monitoring, El Niño is already present in the tropical Pacific.
00:20And more than 80% na ang chance na this will develop fully during the June, July, August.
00:31And in fact, based on projections ng iba't ibang models, it may strengthen into a strong El Niño during October,
00:43November, December season and possibly lasting until the early part of 2027.
00:53Alam naman po natin, strong El Niño can bring below normal rainfall, prolonged dry conditions, water shortages, and adverse impacts
01:06on key sectors, particularly agriculture, energy, health, and other sectors.
01:13While these impacts may still be months away, the time to prepare is now.
01:20The purpose of this advisory actually is not to cause alarm but to encourage early action.
01:28Experience has shown that communities, local governments, and sectors that prepare early are better able to reduce losses and protect
01:42lives and livelihoods.
01:43So, of course, as we emphasized earlier, bago dumating ang tagtuyot, makakaranas tayo ng mga malalakas ng mga pagulan during
01:55the habagat season.
01:57Ito'y isa din sa mga expected nating impacts ng El Niño.
02:02The DOHST Pag-ASA will continue to closely monitor the situation and provide regular updates and advisories.
02:12And we encourage everyone and, of course, all concerned to stay informed and work together to implement preparedness measures, of
02:23course, sa lahat ng mga sectors para ma-mitigate ang impacts ng fenomenon na ito.
02:32So, base po dun sa latest prediction natin na minomonitor po, base po dun sa mga international prediction centers.
02:41Next po.
02:43El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific.
02:46Next.
02:47And most climate models suggest El Niño will likely to persist until early 2027.
02:53So, yan po yung general statement na ipinalabas ng pag-asa.
02:56Last week, kaugnay po nung El Niño Advisory 1 na issuance natin.
03:00So, dito po nakikita natin na halos 98, 100% sure, na sure po tayo na nandyan po yung El
03:07Niño.
03:07Ang tinitingnan po ay minomonitor po natin is yung ano yung posibleng maging strength nito,
03:13kailan to hanggang sa, kailan to magtatagal, at ano-ano po yung mga areas na posibleng maapektuhan nito.
03:20Next po.
03:23So, dito pinapakita naman po yung chance kung paano magiging strength ng ating El Niño natin na binabantayan ngayon.
03:31So, increasing chance of strong El Niño by September, October, November 2026.
03:36So, ito po lang ibig sabihin natin, mas umiinit po yung temperatura ng dagat na patuloy that could start as
03:43a weak, moderate, and then becoming strong.
03:46Ibig sabihin po, up to 1.9 degrees centigrade yung pag-init niya.
03:50But then, may nakikita po tayong mas mataas na chance of very strong El Niño by October, November, December, to
03:57November, December, January,
03:59which is around between 30 to 37%.
04:02So, ito po ay mas mataas dun sa historical climatology na ito ay posibleng mangyari.
04:08Mas mataas po siya dun sa tinatawag nating historical climatology na posibleng po ito mag-iisa ang very strong El
04:15Niño.
04:16So, kung baga po sa ating lagnat ay possible na ito yung kumbulsyon na nagkukumbulsyon ang ating dagat
04:22at sobrang init na po na more than 2 degrees yung pinipredict po natin na pag-init.
04:27Next.
04:32Next.
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