00:00Joining us now to discuss is Bloomberg's economy and government reporter in Switzerland, Bastian Benrith Wright.
00:05Thank you so much for joining us. This was struck down, but it was pretty close. I mean, 55 to
00:1045.
00:11That's not a blowout. Why was this getting traction with voters?
00:15And can you talk to us about the two camps and what they were arguing on this issue?
00:20Yeah, so this is by far not the first campaign to limit Switzerland's immigration.
00:25Switzerland is a very attractive place. We have high immigration every year.
00:30Because the companies, we have big companies here, Nestle is here, Roche is here, Novartis, UBS.
00:37They are just drawing a lot of people to fill their workforce.
00:41And therefore, the immigration is high.
00:43And right-wing forces have for decades campaigned to cap the immigration and to cap the population,
00:50arguing that the country just doesn't have enough space for all the newcomers,
00:54is in a way their newest way to approach to medium voters, middle voters.
01:00And they ran into staunch resistance from the companies, which I mentioned,
01:05who said this would cut the country off from vital immigration to fill workforces.
01:12And it looks like Swiss voters have voted with their heads and not their guts.
01:17Yes, Switzerland really dodged a bullet here because also a lot of economists said,
01:22guys, this is not going to work.
01:24So, yeah, it looks like it looks good for the Swiss economy.
01:27Talk a bit about the genesis of this.
01:29So the kind of right-wing Swiss People's Party was what was the main proponent of all of this.
01:34Where did it come from and why at this moment was it, I don't want to say overwhelmingly resonant,
01:38because of course it wasn't, but it did get traction.
01:40And why is that the case broadly?
01:43Well, Switzerland is kind of a special case because Switzerland is an island in a way in the middle of
01:49Europe.
01:49It never has joined the European Union and even the United Nations only in 2002.
01:54So sovereignty, particularly sovereignty over the borders, is really a thing which resonates here.
01:59As I said, we have decades of campaigns from right-wing forces arguing that Switzerland needs to retain its control
02:08and so on.
02:09And so it's really something which resonates with the population here, to say this.
02:14And it's, you know, this population cap proposal is just a vehicle.
02:19It is right-wing forces have been arguing for a long time to restrict relations with the European Union, for
02:27one thing,
02:27and to reduce immigration for another.
02:30And the argument that the country is running out of space, I mean, initially, or intuitively, it makes sense.
02:36And Switzerland has a lot of mountains.
02:37But this argument really was more a vehicle to appeal also to voters who don't usually vote for the Swiss
02:44People's Party.
02:45It's an interesting breakdown because a lot of the places in Europe, and I think about the UK, where you're
02:50getting pushback on immigration,
02:51it's a lot of illegal, what is referred to as illegal immigration, migrants, things like that are the flashpoint.
02:56But in Switzerland, we've got these numbers in the New York Times, the Swiss population has grown by more than
03:00a quarter to 9.1 million.
03:01But as of 2024, only about 89,000 migrants were recognized as refugees.
03:072 million were permanent foreign residents for Europe.
03:10So to your point, I had a friend who tried to get a work visa in Switzerland.
03:13He couldn't get it.
03:14It's really hard to do.
03:15You have to have a sponsor.
03:17You have to have a company.
03:17It's a long process.
03:19The fact that companies want this workforce and the population is saying no makes it a bit of a different
03:25case than I think we're seeing in other places.
03:28Yes, indeed.
03:29Absolutely.
03:30It is definitely a dichotomy between what the campaigns argue and what the numbers say.
03:37Because the Swiss People's Party has really pushed this point of, like, too many people are coming and it's the
03:42wrong ones.
03:43It's all asylum seekers and asylum abusers and so on.
03:46But as you just said, that's actually a minuscule number.
03:49By far, the majority of immigrants into Switzerland come because they want to work here and they come with a
03:55work visa.
03:55The situation you described is a little bit different for European Union citizens because there is a free movement of
04:01people treaty in place between Switzerland and the bloc.
04:05And so that's a little bit different than when you come from the U.S. or from other places outside
04:10Europe.
04:12But it is precisely this free movement treaty which makes it a lot easier for the big corporates here to
04:19recruit people.
04:20So this free movement treaty would have definitely come under threat if this population cap had been accepted.
04:26And this was also, because people know that it's really beneficial for companies, this was also a big argument of
04:33the no side in the campaign.
04:35And it seems like that has resonated with voters.
04:37Bastien, I want to ask you about Switzerland's competitiveness at this moment, enjoying this unique place in Europe.
04:44Obviously, the financial sector is so hugely important to Switzerland as it has been for such a long period of
04:49time.
04:49When it comes to wealth management, how well is it holding on to its kind of marquee position there?
04:56How much competition does it have for those jobs and for that industry right now?
05:01Well, there is a lot of competition for this.
05:03Switzerland has a tradition in finance, no doubt.
05:05But Boston Consulting Group report showed that Switzerland lost its top spot as a booking center for wealth management actually
05:13last year to Hong Kong.
05:14So there is a lot of competition there.
05:16Hong Kong is one.
05:18The Gulf states are another one, obviously.
05:20Singapore.
05:21So we have, like, there is competition and there is a lot of talk here also about that Switzerland may
05:27slip, particularly in its traditional strength of finance.
05:31So now that this referendum has not passed, where do you see this going?
05:35Will this be the end of it?
05:36Or do you expect efforts like this, maybe smaller portions of it, smaller motions to continue?
05:41It seems to me like this, you know, again, quite a few people did vote for this.
05:46This is probably not going away.
05:48Yeah, no, absolutely.
05:49Like, it is a sentiment which resonates in the population.
05:51And, I mean, like, we are probably going to end up with 45 percent of the population voting yes on
05:56this, right?
05:56This is, like, far from nothing.
05:58So I think proposals to reduce immigration will continue to come.
06:05Keep in mind, this is a direct democratic system.
06:08So there are votes as many as four times a year on different policy issues.
06:14There was even a vote.
06:15Like, they can get quite ridiculous, no offenses for voters, but, like, there was a vote whether apes should get
06:21human rights, for example.
06:22So those are the things voted on.
06:24Okay, so we have a very representative, you know, active direct democracy going on there.
06:28Yeah, yeah.
06:29Absolutely, exactly.
06:30And so the immigration-critical proposals will come.
06:35As I said, there are several decades of a tradition for it.
06:38And, yeah, particularly what's going on is that there is right now a package of treaties being ratified between Switzerland
06:48and the European Union intended to put the relations with the bloc on a firmer footing.
06:53And there's going to be a plebiscite on this probably next year or in 2028.
06:59And the Swiss People's Party is already campaigning against that and will definitely use the sentiment to attack this set
07:09of treaties.
07:10So that passing is far from sure.
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