NOAA: 70% Likelihood of Above-Average Pacific Season — Hawaii in Jeopardy - video Dailymotion

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The Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook from NOAA, released on June 4, indicates a 70% likelihood of a hurricane season that exceeds normal levels across the Central Pacific, posing a direct threat to Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast. Meteorologists point to a strengthening El Niño anticipated to achieve moderate to strong levels by late summer, significantly increasing tropical cyclone occurrences in the area. NOAA forecasts between five and thirteen tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific, which is considerably higher than the historical norm. Hawaii has not experienced a direct, major hurricane impact since Iniki in 1992 — specialists caution that this season alters that risk significantly.

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00:00NOAA just issued a stark warning for the Central Pacific, and it directly threatens Hawaii and the U.S. West

00:06Coast.

00:06The agency's 2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook, released today, gives a 70% probability of an above-normal season.

00:15The key driver is El Nino, which is expected to strengthen, to moderate, or strong intensity by late summer,

00:23dramatically boosting tropical storm activity across the region that directly impacts Hawaii.

00:29NOAA projects 5 to 13 tropical cyclones across the Central Pacific this season significantly above historical averages.

00:37Hawaii has not taken a direct major hurricane landfall since Iniki devastated Kauai in 1992.

00:44Meteorologists warn this season represents the most elevated risk for Hawaii in decades.

00:50Residents of Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island should review their emergency plans today.

00:55If El Nino strengthens as forecast, the season could become one of the most active in recorded history.

NOAA: 70% Likelihood of Above-Average Pacific Season — Hawaii in Jeopardy

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