- 9 hours ago
Manchester United need to make a decision. Should they go for one of Europe's alleged "elite" managers, or should they give the job to Michael Carrick, the man who has had it for the last 14 games and masterminded their return to the Champions League.The arguments both for and against are pretty compelling. Adam Clery looks at how he has transformed this team (and how he's yet to be really tested) to draw a conclusion.
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00:00Hello there, gorgeous. Have you had your haircut? Have you? It looks really nice.
00:04Anyway, we are here today to ponder the future of this man, Michael Carrick.
00:10Should he be the next permanent Manchester United manager or should not he?
00:16Shouldn't he? That's it.
00:18The cases, both for and against, are actually quite compelling.
00:20So let us break those down now and come to some sort of a conclusion.
00:26Because I think moments like this here are as good as moments like this here are bad.
00:35So it is quite tricky, this one.
00:40Now your reminder before we begin that ACFC is proudly brought to you in partnership with our investment buds at
00:46Trading212.
00:47Hence, Teddy Sheringham over here.
00:50And before you ask, no, this is not some hot new merch drop.
00:53This is just the goalkeeper shirt I wear when I'm playing for the independence team in the big journalism league
01:00we have.
01:01Which I'm doing immediately after this video or before, by the time you've watched it.
01:06This was the score.
01:08I have no idea if that's any good because it hasn't happened yet.
01:11But that was, that's how it went.
01:12But yes, so this is basically Michael Carrick's Manchester United.
01:16And I will set my stall out for you early, right?
01:19I think the most important thing when assessing his suitability to be the Man United manager
01:26is the job he has done as Man United manager.
01:30You've seen this graph loads already, so I'll just get it out of the way, right?
01:33Since he took over at Old Trafford, no manager in the Premier League has won more points.
01:39And you can't just dismiss that, right?
01:41That is quite a big deal.
01:43If the season had started when he did, we'd be nearly halfway through it.
01:47And Man United would be top of the league.
01:50And I would say, arguably, more important than just the points
01:53is the fact that the league's top scorers across those 14 games as well.
01:58Like, when you watch them, there's now a fluidity to their attack.
02:01You get a lot of one-touch passes.
02:03They drive in behind.
02:04And you need to have that when a squad has been as expensively assembled as this one has.
02:11And, like, that moment we've just shown you there from the Liverpool game,
02:15that's actually a pretty neat summation of what he's done to this team
02:19and why it has been working so consistently well.
02:22Because if you look at this, or literally any other moment from that match,
02:26despite the fact they're at home, despite the fact they're dominating,
02:29despite the fact they're winning, despite the fact they're playing really well,
02:32they are still trying to sit off Liverpool in, like, this compact 4-4-2 shape.
02:39And as you've seen from these last 14 games, that is really hard to play through.
02:43And as soon as they win it back, they can then burst up the other end of the pitch
02:47with quick passing and direct running.
02:49It is, I believe, what was once referred to as the Manchester United way.
02:54And it works really well for this team,
02:57not because it's some, like, ingenious bit of tactical thinking,
03:00but because Man United have a squad of players who are really, really well-suited to playing it.
03:06Like, Matthias Cunha and Brian Umbermo,
03:08they came in this summer as the hot, shiny new attacking prospects,
03:12but they did not arrive from two teams who love high-possession, dominant football.
03:18They were players who loved to attack the space, to hit you in transition.
03:22And the fact that they're so good on the ball when they are at full burn
03:27is what makes them so good.
03:29And Benjamin Sesko, he is still a very, very raw talent.
03:34But if you watched him for, like, five minutes when he was at Leipzig,
03:38you'll know the one thing he was already elite at
03:41was burning past defenders to attack space in behind.
03:46You combine that with Bruno Fernandes' ability to make the exact right decision
03:50in transitions and having the engine to keep up with players like that,
03:54and you have magically, overnight, got yourself a team who are really, really dangerous
03:59in certain situations.
04:01And I know it sounds really straightforward, like any manager could have just done this,
04:06but Ruben Amorim had these exact same players
04:09and was not playing to their strengths anywhere near as well as Michael Carrick was.
04:15And that is not nothing. He gets a lot of credit for that.
04:19And this is, by the way, something that Michael Carrick has done,
04:23not something that has simply just happened while he's been there.
04:26Because Man United, prior to his appointment, were averaging, like, 55% possession per game,
04:32and now they only average, like, 47%, 48%, 49%.
04:36Don't get me wrong, that's not a jaw-dropping change in those numbers,
04:40but it does just show you that, as a team, they are happy to enjoy periods of the game
04:45without the ball so that they can manufacture those situations
04:50where these players are at their best.
04:52And on top of that, he has tweaked a number of the individual roles
04:55the players are fulfilling for him.
04:57Like, Kunja comes in and he spends most of the start of the season
05:00either as the centre-forward or just off him.
05:03But now, playing out on the left-hand side
05:05with the ability to float into his favourite part of the pitch,
05:09getting enough support from the full-back that he hasn't got to worry about the whip,
05:12his goal contributions have doubled.
05:15Like, he had four of them or something in his first 20 games of the season,
05:19and he's had eight in the 14 since Carrick's come in.
05:22And it's the same for Umbermo on the other side.
05:24He starts on the right, but the idea is that he'll float nearer the pitch,
05:27get closer to Fernandes, get closer to the centre-forward.
05:30He's obviously brought Kobi Maynou back into the team,
05:33and he's looked excellent.
05:34Harry Maguire is out from the wilderness.
05:36And then, of course, there is Bruno Fernandes,
05:38who may very well be the Premier League Player of the Year,
05:43largely off the back of the run he's been on since the change in manager.
05:47And the thing is, right, I could stand here for about a billion hours
05:52and take you through all the other stats that are out there about this team.
05:57Like, I've seen a big argument happening recently
05:58about the rolling XG average between the two managers.
06:02Like, it basically hasn't changed from Amirim to Carrick,
06:06even though you've watched these games with your eyes,
06:08and you know they've been very different.
06:11So I would say that I think there's no, like, super granular statistical way
06:16to prove that Michael Carrick would be an amazing appointment.
06:21But like I've just said, you've watched them.
06:24You can see how much better they look.
06:26They're better organised.
06:27They're a lot more expressive.
06:29Most of their big-money players are now always in areas of the pitch
06:33where their instincts will override tactical instruction
06:37and they've started to deliver for this team.
06:40And honestly, just doing that itself, I think, is a huge accomplishment.
06:45Like, there are loads of managers they could have brought in
06:47who would not have done this as well or as consistently for as many players
06:52as Michael Carrick has done.
06:54And on that basis, if this was an audition to get the job properly,
06:59then he's passed it.
07:00He's absolutely smashed it.
07:02Like, honestly, you can't beat Man City and Arsenal and Chelsea and Liverpool
07:07and deliver Champions League football
07:09and then have somebody say,
07:11oh, yeah, all right, that's pretty good.
07:13But unfortunately, the rolling five-game XG average
07:16is a little bit concerning.
07:19Like, even at the very, very top levels of football decision-making,
07:23the results count for more than anything else.
07:27However, however, however, however,
07:30does that mean that there is not a number of quite serious issues
07:35with this appointment?
07:38Ask the Magic 8 ball.
07:40Ah, no, it does not mean that.
07:43So we're going to have to talk about them.
07:45And before we get into the slightly nerdy stuff here, right,
07:49the big glaring fact that's got neon lights around it
07:53and you can see from space is that because they had no European football
07:57and went out of both cups in the very first round,
08:02every single team that Michael Carrick has faced
08:06while Man United manager this season
08:08has played more football than they have.
08:12For some, it's just a game or two.
08:14But for Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Newcastle,
08:19Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool,
08:21it has been between 10 and 20 more games.
08:26And out of those eight fixtures, they won seven of them.
08:30Michael Carrick has had an enormous fitness advantage
08:33in all of these difficult fixtures
08:35and then obviously an enormous talent advantage over everyone else.
08:40And the fact is, you only really see what a manager's value is
08:44to a team of footballers when you are down to the bare bones,
08:48when you are stretched across multiple competitions,
08:50when you are missing your key players
08:52and you have to get through tough games
08:54on little more than your depth and your identity.
08:58And we saw it in a number of the lineups
09:00that Ruben Amorim was forced to put out,
09:02but this is something that has still not been tested under Carrick.
09:06And if you were to go and ask literally any Middlesbrough fan,
09:10they would tell you that when the season really starts to ramp up
09:13because, oh, I don't know,
09:15you're having an underdog run to the League Cup semis
09:17and that's really adding to the number of games you're playing,
09:21your season can then start to fall apart
09:24with a lack of rotation or tactical flexibility.
09:27Now, maybe he just simply didn't have the players
09:30to get through that situation,
09:31or maybe he lacked the ability to think himself out of those problems.
09:36The fact is, in this job, we have not seen that, so we don't know.
09:40And likewise, I think the reason he's got Manchester United
09:43set up in this way that prioritises
09:46first what they do off the ball
09:48so that they can do certain things on it
09:50is because he looks at this team
09:53and he does not see a group of players
09:54capable of dominating games the way they maybe should.
09:58You've got a front line and creatives and even full backs, I guess,
10:02who thrive in quick open games
10:04and you've got the rest time between matches
10:06to maintain that sort of intensity.
10:09So it makes sense that that's what he's doing.
10:12But the problem is, in the games where he has tried to alter that approach,
10:16it's not gone very well.
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12:11Class dismissed.
12:13They pressed really high against Newcastle away
12:17and despite them being down to 10 men,
12:19Newcastle still played around and over
12:22this pressing shape really, really easily.
12:25And they did control that game.
12:27They had almost all of the ball.
12:28They had an extra man for the entire half
12:30and they still managed to get done on a counter-attack
12:33and somehow lose.
12:35Then they almost chucked it away against Liverpool,
12:38I think largely because of his choice of sub.
12:41Sesco was giving them this great physical outlet
12:43to beat Liverpool's press
12:45and by not bringing Xerxe on,
12:47who can do that,
12:48they suddenly had to try and build up a totally different way
12:52and made two massive errors while trying to adapt to that.
12:55Now, is that simply that this Man United side
12:58is not good enough to either press teams high
13:00or build up more patiently?
13:03Well, Michael Carrick obviously thinks so,
13:06judging by the way he sets them up.
13:08But the reality is,
13:09next season, when the fixture list starts piling up
13:12and you've been in the job for a while now,
13:14teams have figured out your style of play,
13:15you are going to need to be able to mix things up,
13:19to target teams in a different way
13:21and manage the workload by slowing the game down
13:24and not burning yourselves out.
13:26The evidence for them trying that is arguably already there
13:29and it's not good.
13:31So this, for me,
13:32is the major problem with appointing Michael Carrick, right?
13:36All the evidence that's grounded in the present
13:38makes it a no-brainer.
13:40Like, there is literally no manager in world football
13:43that could say they've done with this group of players
13:45what he has.
13:47But all the evidence that looks slightly further forward
13:49suggests next season we'll throw up challenges
13:52that he is not personally that well-equipped to overcome,
13:57at least based on what we've seen so far.
13:59And if he can't find a way to make a press like this
14:01more effective or to make a build-up like this
14:03more reliable,
14:04he is going to be gone before Christmas
14:07and this club will have wasted another season.
14:10Presumably after blowing an enormous sum of money
14:13on this midfield rebuild
14:14that he's going to need to have a say in.
14:16So, it is an enormously big decision.
14:20And if, I don't know, you want a personal take,
14:23just give him it.
14:24Like, I've seen people saying,
14:25oh, they can't have a repeat of what happened with Oli, right?
14:29But I just, I don't get that
14:30because I maintain to this day
14:33that was a manager in a team
14:34that was about to have a very credible title challenge
14:37until it had a 36-year-old egomaniac thrust upon it
14:42who refused to do any running
14:44in a system that was almost entirely based on running.
14:49So, unless, like, Carrick's going to be told
14:51they're re-signing Mark Hughes,
14:53I don't think that's strictly relevant.
14:55And also, there's just,
14:58like, there's no perfect option, is there?
15:02Irreola and Glasner know the league inside out,
15:04but their systems, the way they play currently,
15:07would require quite a lot of adaptation
15:09to make it work at a club the size of Man United.
15:12So, they're a risk.
15:14Alonso and Fabregas are obviously very exciting options,
15:17but both of them still have a couple of question marks
15:19over their suitability to manage in England
15:22slash might have their eyes on other
15:26more appealing to them personally jobs in this division.
15:30And even if you could get Nagelsmann or Tuchel,
15:32which is what they really want to do,
15:34the earliest you would prize them away
15:36from their current jobs
15:38is the end of the World Cup in July.
15:40And they really need to make this decision now.
15:45The fact is, none of these possible appointments
15:48come without a degree of risk.
15:51And at least with Michael Carrick,
15:53I don't know why I did that,
15:54you know exactly what the risks are.
15:57That's something.
15:58Plus, the players have all come out and said
15:59they love him, he's proved he understands
16:01the squad's strengths and his weaknesses.
16:03And while he is the least experienced
16:05of all the potential options,
16:07he is ironically still
16:09probably the safest pair of hands.
16:12And just as one final point, right,
16:14I am personally a really big believer
16:16in giving handsome, young Mavericks
16:20from North Tyneside
16:21quite prestigious jobs in football
16:23that some people might argue
16:25they're not fully qualified for.
16:28Eh?
16:29But yes, there you go.
16:30Those are the pros and indeed the cons
16:32of appointing Michael Carrick
16:33as the permanent Manchester United manager
16:35for next season.
16:36Now, if you have enjoyed this video,
16:38well done.
16:39Great taste you've got there.
16:40Please do subscribe to us here
16:41at the Adam Cleary Football Channel.
16:42All the World Cup coverage coming up
16:44as well as May in football,
16:46which is obviously always absolutely mad.
16:48Thanks again to our trading pals
16:50at Trading212, hence the name.
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17:01That's not it.
17:01But that's just a phone.
17:02I have the Hackney Half Marathon
17:04in like 10 days.
17:07So I'll get a bit nervous
17:09as that meme goes.
17:11I'm running it for Calm,
17:12the Campaign Against Living Miserably.
17:13They are a suicide prevention charity
17:14here in the UK.
17:15It's a cause very close to my heart.
17:17And any money we can raise for them
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17:22than you might think.
17:22It makes an enormous difference
17:24to people who are really struggling right now.
17:26So the link for that,
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17:31You get me across all the social medias
17:33at Aventury,
17:33C-L-E-R-Y.
17:34And that's it.
17:37That's it.
17:38We do have to play the game now.
17:40We're playing,
17:41anyone who's staying till the end
17:42and is interested in this,
17:43we're playing the political lobby.
17:44They have a team of journalists
17:45in this league.
17:46We're playing them tonight.
17:48We are as it stands.
17:50Third, I think, in the league,
17:52but we go top if we win tonight.
17:53It's a big game.
17:55It's a big, big game.
17:56This league matters more to me
17:58than it really should.
17:59So I'm going to go do that now.
18:01Bye.
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