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Scientists are warning of a potential eruption so massive it could change life as we know it. If this supervolcano erupts, even Vesuvius will seem small in comparison!
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00:00Oh boy, scientists predict a volcanic eruption that is likely to be one of the most destructive
00:06in the history of our species. There's a 1 in 6 chance of it happening in this century,
00:11and it could seriously change the climate even more and put millions of lives in danger.
00:16Back in January 2022, the Hunga Tonga Hunga Haapai volcano erupted in the South Pacific
00:23Ocean, creating a huge explosion. It sent tsunamis all the way to Japan,
00:28North America, and South America. Tonga itself was hit hard, with damage costing nearly 20%
00:34of the country's entire economy. Now, researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen
00:40have studied ice samples from Greenland and Antarctica, and their findings are worrying,
00:46predicting potential global volcanic disaster. They say there's a real chance of a much bigger
00:51eruption, a whopping 10 to 100 times larger than Tonga's. In the past, eruptions this size
00:58used to change the climate and even cause civilizations to collapse.
01:02Despite future volcanic eruption risks, experts say the world isn't prepared at all.
01:08Michael Cassidy, a volcanologist from the University of Birmingham,
01:12warns that no sufficient effort is made to handle a disaster like this.
01:16He says that NASA and other space agencies spend billions on asteroid defense. At the same time,
01:22a volcanic supereruption is way more likely than an asteroid impact. And right now, there's no global
01:29plan for dealing with a massive eruption, even though it's likely to be far more destructive.
01:35The last magnitude 7 eruption happened in 1815 at Mount Tambora in Indonesia. Then,
01:43thousands of people lost their lives in just a few days. The disaster also disrupted weather and
01:48caused food shortages worldwide, affecting millions. That eruption was the biggest in recorded history.
01:55It blasted a massive cloud of particles into the sky. Those particles blocked sunlight, cooled the
02:01planet, and caused worldwide chaos. The year after the eruption became known as the year without a
02:07summer. Temperatures plummeted, crops failed, famine spread, and a cholera pandemic broke out,
02:14leading to tens of thousands of lost lives. A shocking fact, the eruption may have even
02:20inspired Mary Shelley to write Frankenstein, while stuck indoors during the unusually cold summer
02:26of 1816 in Switzerland. Since then, many volcanoes have erupted, but none have matched Tambora's scale.
02:34Now, over 200 years later, scientists warn that there's a new supervolcano threat. Another massive
02:41eruption could be on the way, and the world might not be ready for it. So, while scientists seriously
02:47discuss the likelihood of the next volcanic eruption, experts are calling for urgent action to prepare
02:53before it's too late. So, the thing is, a massive volcanic eruption today could be even more devastating
03:00than the year without a summer. Unlike back then, we're already dealing with all kinds of weather
03:06changes and a more fragile global system, which could make the effects even worse. Dr. Michael
03:12Rampino, a geological scientist, warns that the world is more unstable now, and it means that a modern-day
03:18mega-eruption could have even more severe consequences. But this time, greenhouse gases from fossil fuels
03:25may make the aftermath of such an eruption even colder instead of warmer. So, we're talking about volcanic
03:32activity endangering humanity. Dr. Thomas Aubrey, a volcanologist, found that in a hotter, more
03:39turbulent atmosphere, the sulfur dioxide gas released by a volcanic eruption would spread faster
03:45and farther than in the past. This gas forms sulfate aerosols, which reflect sunlight and cause global
03:52cooling. Because these tiny particles would be more evenly distributed, they'd have a stronger cooling
03:58effect than in 1815. Another atmospheric scientist at Cambridge explains that the size of these airborne
04:05particles matters. It affects how they absorb sunlight. And in a future warmer climate, an eruption could
04:11make the surface cooling stronger by 15%. At the same time, there are still many unknowns. Scientists from
04:19the University of Geneva say that we're only beginning to understand the full impacts of such an event.
04:25It's also difficult to precisely estimate future volcanic eruption risks, since we have very little
04:31data on older eruptions. So, to understand past volcanic activity, researchers analyze ice cores from
04:38Greenland and Antarctica, as well as ancient tree rings. Those act as historical records of weather
04:44changes. These measurements suggest that several eruptions in the past few thousand years temporarily
04:50cooled the planet by about two to two and a half degrees Fahrenheit. One of the most catastrophic
04:57examples is the 1257 Somalus eruption in Indonesia, which was so powerful that it likely triggered the
05:05Little Ice Age. It was a period of global cooling that lasted for hundreds of years. More recently,
05:11the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines slightly cooled Earth for a few years. Because this
05:18eruption happened in the satellite era, scientists were able to measure exactly how much sulfur dioxide
05:23was released and how it affected the atmosphere. But even with modern tools like satellites and
05:30seismic instruments, scientists still have difficult times forecasting the next big volcanic eruption.
05:36Luckily, even though we can't predict the exact timing, we can study worst-case scenarios to help
05:43authorities prepare. This includes creating evacuation plans and stockpiling food in case of global crop
05:49failures caused by volcanic cooling. The changes in weather patterns might make volcanoes more active.
05:56Melting glaciers can reduce pressure on underground magma, which will increase the chances of an eruption.
06:02Plus, more extreme rainfall, which is becoming more and more common, can seep into volcanic cracks and cause
06:09powerful steam-driven explosions. It can affect both active and dormant volcanoes.
06:15Because of these risks, researchers are now mapping volcanoes that are the most vulnerable to climate change.
06:21Their studies show that the highest supervolcano threat comes from such areas as Iceland, Chile,
06:27and Indonesia. Those are places where glaciers are melting quickly or rainfall is increasing dramatically.
06:33A 2022 study found that 716 volcanoes worldwide – that's about 58% of all known active above-ground
06:42volcanoes – could be triggered by extreme rainfall, increasing the likelihood of another mini-ice age.
06:49Now let's get back to that Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai eruption that occurred on January 15, 2022.
06:56Scientists have confirmed that it created the highest plume ever recorded. The volcano,
07:01located underwater in the South Pacific, sent an ash cloud 187,000 feet high. That's higher than any
07:09previously recorded eruption. What makes this eruption even more remarkable is that it was the first to
07:15ever reach the mesosphere. It's the third layer of Earth's atmosphere. The mesosphere begins at about
07:21160,000 feet above Earth, where meteors start burning up and creating shooting stars.
07:28To measure the plume's height, researchers from the University of Oxford and RAL Space used data from three
07:34geostationary weather satellites. Before this, the record for the highest volcanic plume was held by Mount
07:41Pinatubo's 1991 eruption in the Philippines, which reached 131,000 feet high. Interestingly, this kind of
07:49measurement was only possible thanks to modern satellite technology, and a decade ago, no one would have been able to
07:55do this.
07:56Another volcano we should mention, in relation to a potential global volcanic disaster,
08:02is located on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula. Its latest eruption happened in November of 2024,
08:09leading to evacuations in nearby areas. The eruption began just after 11 p.m. with little warning.
08:15The volcano released orange lava from a nearly two-mile-long fissure. Authorities ordered evacuations
08:22for about 50 homes and guests staying at the Blue Lagoon Spa Resort, a popular tourist
08:27destination southwest of Reykjavik. While air travel was not affected, officials still warned of
08:33potentially dangerous gas emissions spreading across parts of the peninsula, including the nearby town of
08:39Grindavik. Grindavik, home to 3,800 residents, has repeatedly witnessed volcanic activity, and past
08:46eruptions even damaged its infrastructure and forced evacuations. For example, in August 2024, a two-and-a-half
08:54mile-long crack opened at the Sunthun-Kangigar crater near Grindavik. It led authorities declaring a
09:01state of emergency as lava flowed in multiple directions. Fortunately, Iceland's meteorological
09:07office reported that the latest eruption was significantly smaller than the one in August.
09:12Geophysics experts conducted aerial surveys and figured out that the situation appeared less
09:17intense than the previous eruptions. These days, Grindavik is not at risk, but the possibility of
09:23further developments cannot be ruled out. Scientists predict more volcanic eruptions.
09:29The last time this volcano erupted was about 500 years ago. But recently, small tremors have grown
09:36really frequent, to such an extent that scientists have been recording more than a thousand a month.
09:42I'm talking about the Campi Flegri supervolcano in Italy. At one point, just a few weeks ago,
09:50the area was rattled by a 4.4 magnitude earthquake with 150 tremors in just one night. It was the
09:58strongest
09:58earthquake in over 40 years. A lot of locals spent the night in their cars, but in the morning,
10:04the shakes were followed by another earthquake, a bit weaker with a magnitude of 3.6.
10:11So, is Italy in danger? Well, the quake itself wasn't big enough to cause serious damage,
10:18but it evoked a lot of panic. At the moment, local authorities are working on grandiose emergency plans.
10:25If worse comes to worse, they'll have to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people.
10:30One of the reasons is the proximity of this area to Naples with more than 3 million inhabitants.
10:36At the moment, they're even considering an option of paying people to leave their homes.
10:43Right now, schools remain closed in the Campi Flegri area. The authorities are allocating more than 500
10:49million euros to ensure the safety of buildings and constructions in the area. A yellow alert is still
10:56in place in the region, where 80,000 people live. There's the so-called red zone, which is the most
11:02dangerous area. There are 1,250 houses in this red zone, and all of them will be at high seismic
11:11risk
11:11if an eruption begins. Plus, more than twice as many will be at medium risk.
11:17Italy is a country prone to seismic activity, and Pozzuoli is a densely populated area that is
11:24located on one of the most dangerous supervolcanoes in Europe. Campi Flegri has 24 hidden underground
11:32craters and dwarfs the better-known Vesuvius. Yes, the very volcano that wiped the ancient Roman city of
11:40Pompeii off the face of the earth in 79 CE. This city thrived near the base of Mount Vesuvius
11:47at the Bay of Naples. In the time of the early Roman Empire, 20,000 people lived in Pompeii.
11:54They were merchants, manufacturers, farmers, and others. The soil in the region was rich and fertile,
12:01so there were lots of orchards and vineyards. Strangely, no one knew that this black earth was
12:06the legacy of an earlier eruption of Mount Vesuvius. The area was a favorite summer
12:12destination for rich Romans. Sadly, at noon on August 24, 79 CE, all this prosperity came to an end.
12:21The peak of Mount Vesuvius exploded, sending a 10-mile-high mushroom cloud of ash and pumice into
12:28the stratosphere. For the next 12 hours, the eruption was wreaking havoc on the city. Volcanic ash and hail of
12:36pumice stones, some of which were three inches in diameter, showered Pompeii. It forced the city's
12:42occupants to flee in terror. Around 2,000 people holed up in stone structures and cellars, paralyzed by
12:49fear. They hoped to wait out the eruption. Who knows? Maybe if they had decided to leave the city
12:56immediately after the beginning of the eruption, they would have had some chances to survive.
13:01A westerly wind protected the city from the first stages of the eruption. But soon, a giant cloud
13:08of hot ash and gas rushed down the western slope of Vesuvius. It engulfed the city, burning everything
13:15in its way. This disastrous cloud was followed by a flood of volcanic mud and rock, which completely
13:23buried the city. As if the volcano was making sure no one would survive, a cloud of toxic gas poured
13:30onto
13:31the city, finishing the lives of a few survivors on August 25th. A flow of rock and ash followed.
13:38It collapsed roofs and walls and turned the city into a giant cemetery.
13:44When a supervolcano erupts, the consequences are usually catastrophic. Supervolcanoes have at least
13:51once had an eruption with a volcanic explosivity index of eight, which is the largest recorded
13:57number on the index. Supervolcanoes are often extremely large, with no cone at all. That's
14:04because they're typically the remains of gigantic magma chambers that once flared up, leaving behind
14:10a caldera. They're usually located over hot spots and appear when huge volumes of magma are trying to
14:16escape from deep underground. Eventually, they burst through Earth's surface. Sometimes, all this magma
14:24gets stuck, unable to break through the planet's crust. And then, massive pools of pressurized magma
14:31gather at a depth of several miles. The pressure keeps growing because more and more magma is trying
14:37to get to the surface. At one point, a supereruption goes off!
14:43The most recent supereruption happened in New Zealand. Well, when I say recent, I meant around
14:4926,500 years ago. That's when a supervolcano beneath the surface of Lake Taupo spewed into the
14:57air more than 300 cubic miles of ash and pumice. Imagine 500,000 Great Pyramids of Giza flying up into
15:06the air at the same time. That's how incredibly powerful that eruption was. But the most exciting
15:13and confusing thing about the eruption was that the Taupo volcano didn't simply go off like many others.
15:20At first, everything was going as usual. Tons and tons of pressurized magma had built up under the
15:26surface, and the pressure was getting higher and higher. But after the rock cracked and the first
15:32portion of lava rushed out of the crater, something went wrong, and the supervolcano took a break.
15:38Only several months later, the disastrous eruption shook the ground. Thousands of tons of lava,
15:44rocks, and ash flew high into the atmosphere. The unusual pattern of Taupo still confuses scientists.
15:53The Indonesian eruption at Toba Caldera 75,000 years ago was the largest eruption in the last 2 million years.
16:02Experts estimate that the eruption could have released hundreds of thousands of tons of sulfuric acid,
16:08which might have even caused a several degree cooling of the planet's surface. But nowadays,
16:13the impact is hard to detect because of glaciers that covered the ground afterward. There are also
16:19several so-called supervolcanoes that haven't lived up to this name yet because they've never produced any
16:25supereruptions. For example, in 1883, Indonesian volcano Krakatoa went off. The power of the eruption
16:33tore the volcano's walls open, and cold seawater rushed into its molten insides. The difference in
16:40temperatures made the volcano blow up with a deafening boom. It was clearly heard 3,000 miles away in
16:47Australia. It earned the blast the title of the loudest sound in history. But even though the
16:54consequences of this event were truly catastrophic, it still turned out not powerful enough to be called
17:01a supereruption. It only had a volcanic explosivity index of 6. Then, there's also Mauna Loa. It's a shield
17:11volcano, which means it won't produce explosive eruptions. But its sheer size makes this monster of
17:17a volcano extremely dangerous. At the moment, the volcano seems to be at peace with its surroundings.
17:25Research equipment doesn't show any signs of activity on Mauna Loa. But if Mauna Loa did suddenly erupt,
17:32lava flows could reach the ocean and the most populated and touristy places like Captain Cook very
17:38fast, in a matter of hours. The last time the volcano erupted, lava got as far as the outskirts
17:46of Hilo on the other side of the island. That's where the University of Hawaii is located. Luckily,
17:52people had a few weeks warning to get ready for the disaster. Over its recorded history, Mauna Loa has
17:58been erupting pretty regularly, almost every six years. On the bright side, big island volcanoes
18:04including Mauna Loa aren't really very volatile. That's because they're shield volcanoes. These volcanoes
18:11got such a name because they aren't really very high and resemble a warrior shield placed flat on the
18:16ground. Shield volcanoes are formed by very fluid lava. It travels way farther and forms much thinner
18:23flows than the lava erupted from a stratovolcano, which is conically shaped and tall, like the infamous
18:30Krakatoa in Indonesia. So, if Mauna Loa erupts, there probably won't be ash clouds or tons of debris.
18:38The most dangerous thing will be lava. Since Mauna Loa is a shield volcano, its lava is extremely fluid
18:45and voluminous, which allows it to flow far and fast.
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