- 57 minutes ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Guess who's back? Back again. Shady's back. Tell a friend, Joe. Tell a friend in Pittsburgh because
00:06the worst kept secret in the history of the NFL is once again, I don't know if I want to
00:11play.
00:12I'll tell you when it's my time at this point right now. Don't worry about me. I'll let you
00:17know. And they did let him know. Aaron Rodgers back with the Pittsburgh Steelers one-year deal
00:22up to $25 million. No longer Mike Tomlin. It's Mike McCarthy in the building, his old head coach.
00:29Does this move the needle for Joe Ranieri? He's back, Joe, in Pittsburgh, black and gold.
00:34Well, yeah, I mean, it absolutely has to move the needle. I mean, I had them pegged at three wins
00:40with Aller, and now I've got them at least four wins, Donnie, with a 42-year-old quarterback who
00:47looks about as disinterested as humanly possible, not to mention you have the highest paid defense
00:54in the league, and you couldn't stop a nosebleed last year. So, yeah, no, I think things are going
00:59well in Pittsburgh. You got your man all 42 years of him. Congrats. Enjoy.
01:06You know, it's funny about the NFL, too. It's like you never want to throw away football seasons
01:10because people love football so much, and Pittsburgh is used to winning seasons, but they're
01:13not a championship organization anymore. If you are a true Steelers fan, you say, okay, Aaron Rodgers
01:18coming back, usually the excitement is good young football team building, or we're at the peak,
01:24we're going for the Super Bowl this year. Like, there is no in-between at this point where you
01:27get on that treadmill like, all right, nine and eight, bounced early, or maybe it goes a little
01:32bit worse. It's interesting to see what Pittsburgh fans have. Oh, great, Aaron Rodgers is back. What
01:36does that mean? We watched it last year. It didn't mean too much at this point. We'll find out much
01:39more, but, Joe, we got other news and notes there from the same division. Could this be true?
01:44We got a Jeremy Fowler report that says Watson has hit it off with Todd Munkin, their new head
01:49coach at OTAs. They can't be starting Deshaun Watson, can they? Is this charade still going on?
01:58Well, I mean, listen, Donnie, you paid him 200 and plus million dollars. Somebody better get some
02:05money's worth out of him at some point if he can still play the game, and I don't think anybody
02:10knows that he can play the game anymore, but if there is a shot, you got a $250 million
02:17investment. Somebody better make sure every rock is turned over and make sure he can't
02:23play.
02:25Maybe, like, maybe there's, I give the Browns a little bit of credit where I probably shouldn't.
02:30Could it just be, Joe? Hey, look, let's rehab the guy enough to get a sixth round pick for
02:34the guy and bump him right out if somebody gets injured and you can have them off our hands
02:38because there's no reason. They actually paid this guy. I know he was injured for the most
02:42part, but usually when a player gets injured, you want him around the team, he's going to
02:45be rehabbing, can't wait to get my starting quarterback that I'm paying hundreds of millions
02:48of dollars to, but they basically paid him. Just stay away. We don't even want you in the
02:53facility to now. Welcome back, open arms, new coach here. Maybe you can be the starter.
02:57We'll find out, but if it is just to bring him back to trade him, then it makes sense.
03:01If it's actually to be our starting quarterback, then we'll certainly find out.
03:05Pro Football Talk tweeted, the Accelerator program is back after last year's
03:08cancellation, which means 34-year-old candidates or 34 candidates for 2026 include Chargers,
03:15offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, and Chiefs, offensive coordinator Eric Biennemi. Man,
03:19Biennemi's back as a Chiefs. Was he coaching like high school last year? Where'd that guy go?
03:25Yeah, well, listen, that's actually not a bad thing because they looked a little bit
03:29undisciplined, did they not last year, Donnie, to say the least? That did not look like your
03:36typical, you know, offense that we were used to seeing. I think he brings back a little
03:41discipline. I think he brings back, you know, it's time to put it together here because the
03:47window is closing, Donnie, if we're being honest here on a couple of teams and a couple of quarterbacks
03:52here. By the way, with Eric Biennemi on the Accelerator program, dude's been lit. He's on like
03:57the Decelerator program at this point now. He was supposed to be a head coach in like 1998,
04:01still waiting on his turn to try to get that done. How about another Pro Football Talk tweet
04:05here, Joe? It's all about the money, you know it is. They're talking about here's a look at why
04:09streaming has created a political issue for the NFL and where it could or should go from here.
04:14If anybody knows what these sports, major sports, I should say, have the antitrust exemptions,
04:19which means that's a lot of money in your pocket from other organizations that aren't allowed to
04:24compete with you. And anytime you see like, oh, a sports league gets out of their britches here,
04:29as we like to say, as Congress goes, we'll take that antitrust back. Oh boy, they snapped right
04:33back into it here. This is interesting because now as you're seeing like, hey, we give you these
04:38exemptions because we want this to be a public brand. Now you're telling everything can go behind
04:43a paywall at this point. They're not liking it. We're going to have some congressional hearings,
04:47Joe, you watch. Well, and Donnie, that is exactly why the NCAA has been doing what they've
04:54been doing, Donnie, because that's their ultimate goal is to get the exemption for the NCAA now that
05:02they're paying all of these players. So yeah, that's the ultimate goal, but they can easily
05:08take it away if they give it to you. No. And again, that's what they held it. That carrot goes
05:13right above and they snap back quickly here. You don't want to walk that fine line and lose an
05:17antitrust exemption. Good luck with that. Hour number two on its way next, which brings up our
05:23next thing. You know where Tom Brady used to play at a ton of success? That's what the New England
05:27Patriots people, their forecast for wins on the Cal State marketplace, nine plus, 10 plus, 11 wins.
05:34Joe, they cruised last year, but apparently people looking for maybe not to be so successful this year
05:39as they actually play a decent schedule. No. Where do we go on the win totals here on the Cal
05:43State
05:43marketplace? Well, again, keeping in mind, you know, they forecasted about 9.7, I think,
05:51total wins here. But keep in mind, you know, when you dive into these future markets like this and
05:55the prediction side, you know, you're always looking for value where you can, you'll have an
06:02opportunity to get out, make a profit, Donnie, because the market has got to reprice as the season
06:08moves along. You know, the Patriots are sitting here, nine and a half wins. I think you can even
06:14see 10 plus wins on their card here. I mean, they're pricing them now like they're a real
06:21contender and not this cute sleeper team that had an easy schedule last year because the schedule
06:27much more difficult. The noise much more this year than in past year. Travel mileage totally
06:34different. So I don't see a lot of value in expecting them to win 10 or 11 games.
06:40I see the value in them not living up to the potential. And I see the under is the where
06:45the
06:45value is. Yeah, it looks like nine plus wins, Joe, currently with a 57% chance to have that happen.
06:51But the yes contract is actually at 66 cents, which means a hundred dollar investment on the
06:56Patriots winning 10 or nine plus games, I should say, gets back $152. Let's take a look at the
07:01opening game that New England's going to play against the Super Bowl champions from a game we
07:06just saw in the Super Bowl, New England versus Seattle. Currently right now, Seattle, Joe and
07:10Kelsey just to win the game, 66% chance with a yes contract of 68 cents. Always hard to go
07:17on the
07:17road, emotional atmosphere on opening night, all the way out in Seattle. That's going to let you know
07:22how dialed in those New England Patriots are. And also any off field off season happenings could
07:29interfere with game number one. We'll find out. But the heavy favorite right now are those Seattle
07:33Seahawks, Joe. Well, here's the deal, Donnie. The market we just talked about there regarding
07:39New England and their win total. Well, I tell you right now, if they win this one to open up
07:44the
07:45season, Donnie, that market's going to reprice and adjust in a big way, right? Same thing for
07:50Seattle. I have if I'm just need who's going to win this game. I would much rather have Seattle
07:56here than anything else. Traveling across country, 12th man, all of that good stuff there. Yeah. But
08:04again, Seattle's market, I don't know what their win total is, Donnie, but it will likely have to
08:09reprice as well after this game. So those two markets, I think, correlated with game one, depending
08:16on which side you think is going to win. Most of the time, Joe, those rosters are set heading into
08:21training camp OTAs in the first game of the season. Not the case here. We got June 1st coming
08:26up sooner than later, which maybe the Patriots can add a wide receiver from Philadelphia. We'll
08:31certainly find that out. Probably going to happen here. But also we take a look at the Seattle Seahawks
08:35win total coming up for the next season. We talked about the Patriots right around that nine plus win
08:40scenario. You're not getting those discounts with Seattle. That's a good football team, but it is a
08:44tough division, Joe. I go to the Kelsey marketplace, 57% chance to do what? 11 plus wins on the
08:51season.
08:51The yes contracts at 55 cents here, Joe. Expectations for the Super Bowl champions,
08:56extremely high once again in 2026. Yeah. Well, and they got, I think they got the Rams
09:03in twice in the final three weeks again here on the schedule. They play the last three Super Bowl
09:09champ. The schedule for Seattle is not going to be easy, but look at the price, Donnie. They're
09:14taxing them like, Hey, there you go again. Another 11, 12 win season up and coming here.
09:20We always know there's always that regression with the Super Bowl champs, right? Again, this is a
09:27market where I think the fade early on is where the best repricing is going to take place.
09:33Mike Tomlin's not in town, which means questionable. If we do get another winning season in Pittsburgh,
09:38Aaron Rodgers is back. Mike McCarthy's a new head coach, but I go to the Kelsey marketplace here,
09:43Joe. Eight plus wins on the season is at 60% right now is a chance. Seven plus wins though,
09:49is listed at 54%, but that's not where you make the money. It's in the contract. A yes on seven
09:54wins
09:55is 72 cents. A yes on eight wins. It's all the way down to 56 cents here, Joe. Seven, eight
10:01wins.
10:01That's not a 500 season, Joe. Uh-oh. Yeah. And what you just said is so true, Donnie. Take whatever
10:09you want to think of Pittsburgh with Tomlin and throw it out the window because Tomlin is not
10:15there. All of those stats, all of those trends, throw them right out the window. It's Mike McCarthy's
10:21show now, and this is going to be a dumpster fire all to the under for me across the board
10:27with
10:27Pittsburgh this year.
Comments