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00:04Partiamo da un viaggio, un viaggio veloce che ci porterà dall'economia fino alla prospettiva
00:11storica dei meccanismi con cui si prendono le decisioni nella democrazia nel tempo dell'informazione
00:16digitale fino di nuovo all'economia. Un saluto anche a chi ci sta seguendo in diretta su Classe
00:24MBC quest'anno è visto il nostro ospite che è il professor Joseph Stiglitz. Professor Stiglitz
00:40Welcome Professor Stiglitz, so good to have you back here at l'incontro Nielsen last year
00:50we had a conversation, you were traveling in Europe, so good to have you back here
00:55It's much nicer to be here in person
00:57Absolutely, we love it and you know this is a huge meeting which has a long history
01:05but let me start with another summit, with another meeting which today is taking place in a very far place
01:12which is Beijing with President Xi Jinping is currently meeting, they just had the state banquet
01:19I mean with President Donald Trump and apparently it's a meeting among all trends
01:25they have a lot of smiles, a lot of ceremonies and so on, in the end they're managing the most
01:33dangerous relationship in the world
01:36what's your sense of the potential outcome of this meeting?
01:41Well I think President Xi has been very clear in getting across a couple of political messages
01:50the first is Taiwan is important and don't mess with it and the US is messing with it
01:59because it's proposing to sell a record amount of military equipment in Taiwan
02:06so he was really pushing back on that
02:08the second message was trade wars are bad for everybody
02:15and of course Donald Trump loves tariffs, he said that he loves tariffs
02:22and those are the precursors of a trade war
02:25in the first round of that trade war with China, the US backed off
02:32In the first mandate as well
02:34so you know that on the market there's this say, taco always chickens out, Trump's always chickens out
02:40A taco
02:41Taco, will this be the case also with China, is this what we're seeing today?
02:46I think probably yes, you know, Trump loves pomp and circumstance
02:53he wants to build an arc to triumph in Washington
02:58the great ballroom
03:01so he likes grandeur and Xi has been pandering to him
03:10when you contrast the strong political message that President Xi
03:17with what he comes with, what Trump comes with
03:21is we want you to buy more soybeans
03:24there's sort of a different level of conversation
03:28food is good, as you all know, and soybeans are good
03:33but the level of discourse is very different
03:36Let me use the words Donald Trump would use in this situation
03:39Who's got the cards at the table today between Xi and President Trump?
03:44I think Xi has the cards
03:47Why?
03:48And you saw that in the first round of negotiations
03:55where Xi pointed out that he controls the critical minerals, rare earths
04:02they control 80, 90, 95% of different critical earths
04:08Magnets, little things, small components
04:12but without which you can't produce cars
04:15without which you can't produce a lot of the other things
04:19Before you go into a war
04:22you ought to think about what cards you have and what cards they have
04:28and Trump didn't do that
04:32and so Xi said, I'm sorry, but if you're going to do this
04:37we're going to do that
04:37and our faculty was going to do that
04:42so he gave in
04:42Well, absolutely, Professor
04:44You mentioned Taiwan, which was at the center of the dialogue
04:46Clearly, do you expect Xi Jinping to get something out of Trump
04:51and some concessions on Taiwan in exchange for some kind of help
04:56to get out of the mess of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran situation?
05:02I don't think China's going to give in much on that
05:08There may be some words
05:11but I think, I think President Xi is enjoying the mess that Trump got himself into
05:20Again, he didn't think about who had the cards
05:26Iran had one card, which is the Strait of Hormuz, as I say, one-fifth
05:33and not only so much oil goes through
05:37but we've now begun to realize that a lot of other things go through there
05:43like fertilizer is at risk, which is important for food
05:52Aluminum, helium
05:53Helium for chips
05:54And so there are so many strangleholds
05:58The world is different than it was in 1970
06:01when there was the previous oil embargo by the Middle East then
06:11That was oil
06:13Now it's a whole range of commodities
06:17the full effects of which we won't see for a while
06:20Is that one of the reasons why oil price is still around 100, 105, 95 a barrel
06:27versus the expectation of the market
06:29You know, Hormuz was the nightmare of every energy trader
06:32and every energy company
06:34But it's still trading kind of in a trading range
06:38What do you think is that?
06:40Well, I think there has been a lot of uncertainty about how long this war is going to last
06:45and how quickly things will recover
06:49If you remember at the beginning of the war
06:53Trump kept saying it's going to last a few days
06:56a week, two weeks
06:59and now we're in several months
07:03and knowing in sight
07:05there's a ceasefire
07:06but it's not a ceasefire
07:08because we have a blockade
07:10which is an act of war
07:12and Iran keeps lobbing missiles
07:17One of the things that I think have not been fully appreciated
07:22at least according to energy experts I've talked to
07:25they've already done a lot of damage to the infrastructure in the Middle East
07:31Repairing that infrastructure is going to take a long time
07:36So I think the market hasn't fully yet taken into account
07:42this may last a long time
07:44and it may take an even longer time to get things back to normal
07:50Right, absolutely, you're right
07:52For example, we in Italy rely a lot in terms of gas supply
07:56from the Ras La Fan gas city in Qatar
08:00which has been bombed heavily
08:02and it will take, according to some experts that we had interviewed with
08:06between three and five years to get back
08:08Exactly
08:08at that situation
08:09So, Professor, clearly
08:12this war, again, is a new tragedy
08:15a humanitarian catastrophe
08:16at the same time
08:17how would you assess the economic impact
08:20for the rest of the world?
08:22Because in Europe, what we see is that
08:24according to the ECB
08:25economic growth is slowing down
08:27inflation is going up
08:29In the US, inflation is going up
08:31this week 3.8%
08:32At the same time, economic growth remain pretty robust
08:37What's your take on this?
08:39Well, I think it's going to have variable effects in different countries
08:42because there are offsetting things
08:45So, you mentioned the 3.8%
08:50You know, inflation was going down
08:52Now it's going way up
08:54The wholesale prices that were just announced yesterday
08:59or today
09:00were 6%
09:03Inflation has now gone
09:05from oil into what we call the core
09:10So, it's seeping into other parts of the economy
09:14Now, what that means
09:17Central Bank's knee-jerk reaction
09:22to higher inflation is higher interest rates
09:25and that slows down the economy
09:27So, the inflation directly
09:30is going to slow down the economy
09:32It's going to take away people's purchasing power
09:36and indirectly through the increase of interest rates
09:40Now, in the United States
09:42the countervailing force
09:45is the data centers
09:48AI
09:49You talked about that a little bit earlier
09:52About a third of all U.S. growth now
09:55is accounted for by investment data centers
09:59It is not a balanced growth
10:01I don't think it's a sustainable growth
10:04I think there's an AI bubble
10:06We can talk about that later
10:07But, for now, that's what's keeping the economy going
10:13In Europe, it's a different picture
10:18The war in Ukraine, unfortunately, is still going on
10:22Europe has figured out, at last
10:26that Trump
10:29and I would have to say
10:31having elected Trump twice
10:33U.S. cannot be relied on
10:35either for defense or technology
10:38and so Europe is ramping up
10:41Germany particularly
10:42and, you know, changing the fiscal constraints
10:47So, that's providing a stimulus that offsets that
10:51But, globally, other countries are not in that position
10:56And so, I think the estimates are
10:59that global growth will be markedly slower
11:02as a result of these forces
11:04Well, this is not good news
11:05especially for this piece of the economy
11:08which relies on consumption
11:10on consumer behavior
11:12How do you see the resilience of consumers
11:15in this kind of situation
11:16and what the dynamics
11:18especially here in Europe
11:19we might expect?
11:21Well, to begin with the U.S. that I know best
11:24Yeah
11:26Consumer confidence is very low
11:30There's just a lot of uncertainty
11:34You know, there are some forces in the U.S. that make things worse
11:38in terms of inflation than in Europe
11:40We have the tariffs
11:41We have the immigration policy
11:44which is creating labor shortages
11:48There's the political uncertainty
11:49There's the political uncertainty
11:50And all of this has contributed to
11:53I think, a pessimism
11:56A widespread
11:57You know, not only polarization
11:58but a real pessimism in the consumer market
12:01So, I think the U.S. consumer market is not
12:06I would say not robust right now
12:11The forces in Europe are a little bit different
12:13as I say
12:14because you don't have the tariffs
12:16You have to respond to the tariffs
12:21You capitulated, in my view
12:25Europe should have been stronger in reaction
12:27And, obviously, that undermines confidence in Europe's
12:33Yeah, for sure
12:35geopolitical position
12:38And, you know, the war in Ukraine is a continual drain
12:43But it's, from my perspective, absolutely essential to win that war
12:48Absolutely
12:49Now, there's another fact that it's quite difficult to explain
12:53Given all the complexity and all the bad news for the global economy
12:57Which is markets
12:59You know, we at ClassCBC
13:00We're a market channel, economic channel
13:03And markets are trading at historic highs
13:06Dow Jones 50,000
13:08And S&P 7400
13:11For the first time since year 2000
13:14Today, the Milan Stock Exchange Futsimib crossed 50,000
13:20And, again, how do you match this with the reality of the economy that they face every day?
13:27So, my view is there's a lot of short-sightedness
13:33Also, I don't know as well the European market as I do the US market
13:38The US stock market really reflects a very few companies
13:44The tech companies, the AI companies
13:46And they're doing very well
13:50As I said before, I think there's a bubble in AI
13:55If you look at the rest of the stock market in the United States
13:58It's not doing particularly well
14:00So, I think the overall number gives a distorted view
14:07But markets almost always are a little bit short-sighted
14:13They aren't looking, you know, they're looking for the now
14:18And not asking about what is the future world going to look like?
14:26Yeah, talking about the future world
14:28You know, the markets are betting that we're living a new industrial revolution
14:32Which is based on AI
14:34And the infrastructure we need is so huge
14:38That hundreds of thousands of billions will be invested in this new economy
14:44You mentioned data center, old infrastructure
14:46Which is real economy, which is workers, which is plumbers, which is technicians, engineers, whatever
14:53We are short of energy, we're short of chips, we're short of land to build
14:58So, it's a huge tension
15:00Do you think this is for real?
15:02Or is it a bubble?
15:04And do you expect this to burst?
15:05And many of these billions are invested with no return
15:09This is not going to be a return
15:11What do you make of it?
15:12Yeah, I said before, a bubble
15:14Let me try to explain why I think it's a bubble
15:18By the way, I think it still will have a very big effect on our economy
15:26That's a different issue than
15:28Productivity is surging
15:29What?
15:30Productivity, productivity
15:31Given AI, productivity is surging
15:34And if we look at the numbers of companies, they're doing better
15:37In particular companies, but not in the aggregate
15:40We don't see it in the aggregate statistics
15:44For the profits to be as high to justify the investments
15:51Assumes that there's not going to be competition
15:55Because the basic law of competition is that
15:58Competition drives prices down to what we call marginal cost
16:02And this is an industry where marginal cost is relatively low
16:07And profits will be driven out and there will be a lot of losses
16:10Like in the tech bubble at the end of the 90s
16:14Now, what we've seen is how quickly a startup like Anthropic can catch up with a firm that had the
16:27big lead like OpenAI
16:29And there are a lot of other firms in the market
16:32If you look at it at a global point of view, DeepSeek has managed with a fraction of the resources
16:40to produce a competitive product
16:44Not quite as good from what everybody says
16:47And it's trading way lower
16:48And it's trading way lower than Anthropic valuation market cap expected for OpenAI
16:54And one of the things is that in the developing world, the third world
16:59Because it's cheaper, it's open source
17:03It's beating OpenAI
17:05And beating Anthropic
17:07So there's going to be a lot of competition
17:10And there's going to be a lot of competition that's going to drive the profits down
17:14The second thing is that even assuming it's technologically successful
17:24If it is as technologically successful as advocates claim, it's going to be a lot of labor market disruption
17:31So we aren't capable, especially the Trump administration
17:35But I think in general, managing that macroeconomic disturbance
17:40And so you can't have a prosperous company if the overall macroeconomy is not functioning well
17:50Well, absolutely
17:52So there are financial aspects, but let me stop with that
17:55Because there are economic consequences and social consequences of what's going on
18:00So AI has created an enormous wealth
18:03Will probably produce with more productivity, more profits for some companies
18:08The real problem, and you've been working a lot in your career on this
18:12Is how the wealth that has been created
18:16Inequality, you've been saying it's not just a social matter, it's a macroeconomic matter
18:22How do you see the future of this, they call it K-economy
18:25The rich are getting richer
18:28The middle class is suffering, the poorer are getting poorer
18:32But before I come to that, I want to emphasize a real risk that the way we are organizing AI
18:41Actually will lead to lower productivity systemically for the whole economy
18:47Wow
18:48And the reason is that we used to have an expression called GIGO
18:56Garbage in, garbage out
18:58And the point is that AI relies on information produced by others
19:07At least at the current time
19:10That's media like yours, newspapers
19:14And what AI has been doing is stealing all that information
19:21That's a strong word
19:22Like yours, newspapers
19:27Because you can get a summary of everybody's information
19:31But if they take away all the eyeballs from you, all the attention
19:36What's your business model?
19:38And already employment is going down
19:43And so there won't be the production of good information that is so essential for a good information ecosystem
19:52So some of my research has emphasized that there is a real risk of the quality of information ecosystem going
19:59down
19:59And if that happens, societal productivity may not gain as much as
20:04Why may, Professor Stiglitz, one of us, at least on this matter
20:08And in terms of social impact in general, socially...
20:15Scusate, ma ci sono dei fischi
20:20Io se traduco così, sento lui e me
20:26I'm part of the group who created something called the International Association for Safe and Ethnic AI
20:35With, you know, the guys who got the Nobel Prize for creating AI
20:40Stuart Russell, who's the head of Berkeley
20:44Their view is that AI has a downside risk which is very great
20:51In fact, at a meeting a year ago in Paris
20:56One of them stood up and said, you know, have we created something like the atomic bomb
21:02That's so dangerous
21:03And, you know, how do we feel about that?
21:07So, they are very strong about having good regulations
21:12To channel AI in the right way
21:16And, I'm in the view that that's absolutely essential
21:23You are moving in the right direction
21:24And, in the right direction
21:26And, in the right direction
21:27And, in the right direction
21:28And, in the right direction
21:28And, in the right direction
21:30We started with Trump and Xi Jinping
21:32But you just mentioned the Europe
21:33Which is clearly crucial to us
21:36And, what is the place of Europe?
21:41I'm asking you
21:43Because yesterday night
21:45Mario Draghi was awarded the Charlemagne price
21:49Which is a recognition for those who support the digital government
21:54And, in the right direction
21:58And, in the right direction
22:00He said, for the very first time
22:02We are alone together
22:03We are alone together
22:06So, we cannot rely on the EU
22:08The US and the Net
22:08The US and the security government
22:10The China has a surplus
22:12Which is a threat of industrialization
22:13That is a threat of industrialization
22:18Here in Europe
22:18We have to use these forces
22:20That are Superd plate
22:21To do what the case
22:22Even does
22:23We have to grow together
22:25In the right direction
22:28The European Union
22:28We know that he made a report
22:30Two and a half years ago
22:31So, we know that he made a report
22:34Two and a half years ago
22:34un rapporto Draghi e soltanto il 10% di quanto lui suggeriva è stato applicato dall'Europa.
22:40Lei come la vede? Quindi è una situazione fondamentale in questo momento. Sono d'accordo
22:48con Draghi rispetto a quello che ha appena detto. Io farei addirittura un passo in lÃ
22:55perché l'Europa in questo momento è il solo luogo in cui rimane e prospera ancora
23:04la democrazia e prosperano ancora i diritti umani. Negli Stati Uniti sapete cosa sta succedendo.
23:14Ieri è stato pubblicato un editoriale e si diceva appunto che gli Stati Uniti sono a metÃ
23:20strada fra l'autocrazia e la democrazia. È stata fatta una disamina di tutte le varie
23:24categorie, di tutti i vari aspetti. Un paio di settimane fa è stata pubblicata
23:34con il rapporto sulla libertà di stampa e gli Stati Uniti sono risultati di essere
23:38il 66esimo posto al Libro Mondiale. Questo è molto preoccupante. Per quanto riguarda
23:43la libertà accademica noi siamo nel 40% inferiore. Di solito eravamo in cima a questo tipo di
23:51classifiche. Quindi l'Europa sì, è da sola purtroppo. E questo significa che deve fare avvitamento
23:59su se stessa per quanto riguarda la difesa, la tecnologia, l'energia, eccetera. E Trump
24:08potrebbe addirittura tagliarvi fuori di fatto. Quindi dovete essere capaci di fare avvitamento
24:15su voi stessi a livello di tecnologia e di difesa. E la relazione con la Cina forse è l'aspetto
24:21più complesso fra tutti. La Cina è riuscita a produrre innovazione a basso costo, appunto
24:30per tagliarvi fuori dai mercati. E quindi questo vi ha creato uno svantaggio competitivo.
24:35Draghi ha ragione. Dovete usare le politiche industriali per poter recuperare, restaurare le
24:44vostre capacità produttive. Fiediamo con l'Italia. Come vede il futuro dell'Italia
24:50da un punto di vista economico, alla luce di quello che ci ho appena detto poco fa?
24:54Ma direi che l'Italia è un paese affascinante. Mi adoro l'Italia. Affascinante perché
25:02ci sono alcune parti dell'Italia che sono molto dinamiche, fra le più dinamiche, mentre
25:08in altre zone si vedono ad esempio aziende che sono molto innovative. E se si vedono
25:23le statistiche medie, di fatto queste statistiche non riflettono la dinamicità di quanto si
25:29si vedono in alcune zone, in alcune regioni dell'Italia che hanno ottime performance. Quindi
25:38è importante portare a termine la transizione rispetto all'industria manufatturiera. Ci sono,
25:50diciamo, rimangono comunque ancora molto spazio per i servizi. Ad esempio voi in Nord Italia
25:56avete la moda, altri settori, quindi avete l'innovazione che ha un ruolo trainante nella
26:05produzione di prodotti migliori. E quindi io credo che l'Italia di fatto sia una sorta di
26:14puzzle vero e proprio. Nel senso che si vede che ci sono tante storie di successo, ma a livello
26:24individuale, non so, ad esempio io ho una caffetiera italiana a casa che funziona benissimo, che adoro. Ci sono tantissimi
26:34aspetti, il cibo italiano lo adoriamo tutti. Naturalmente qui abbiamo molti attori del successo delle aziende italiane. Quindi ci sono
26:43molte
26:43storie di successo, ma di fatto come economista guardo all'Italia, quindi senza soffermarmi su questo aspetto, quindi se vado
26:53a vedere i numeri
26:53aggregati, quindi la crescita della probabilità , in realtà i dati non sono molto promettenti, non sono stati così favolosi.
27:02Quindi bisogna cercare di riconciliare questi fattori discordanti. Grazie, cercheremo di riconciliare questi fattori e grazie ancora
27:12professore per essere qui con noi.
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