00:02Their first budget since Labor's landslide victory.
00:06The government's economic duo spending some political capital
00:09and putting some money back in workers' pockets.
00:13Tonight unveiling another income tax cut
00:16or working Australians tax offset.
00:19So is it Waito or Watto?
00:21Waito.
00:2213 million workers to get $250 back at tax time from 2028
00:27and every year thereafter.
00:30The new measure on top of already legislated tax cuts
00:33costing the budget $6.4 billion over four years.
00:37So why do we have to wait another two years for Waito?
00:40Well we do as much tax relief as we can afford to do.
00:43And it's not the only tax relief that we are providing.
00:46The tax cut to be paid for by increasing taxes
00:49on property investors and trusts.
00:51From next year only investors building new homes
00:54will be able to use negative gearing.
00:56The 50% capital gains tax discount will go.
01:00Instead the tax will apply to the profit made minus inflation
01:04with a minimum 30% tax rate.
01:07Existing investors to be exempt.
01:09The change is estimated to help 75,000 more Australians
01:13buy their first home.
01:15But this is a policy U-turn.
01:17Do you reckon voters will forgive you for breaking an election commitment?
01:20The easiest thing in the world would be to leave these tax breaks
01:23in place exactly as they are.
01:25But it's locking too many people, particularly young people,
01:28out of the housing market.
01:30And so we've come to a different view for the right reasons.
01:33Property prices won't fall according to Treasury,
01:36but they'll grow more slowly.
01:38Rents expected to rise by $2 a week.
01:41Family trusts also targeted.
01:43From 2028, the tax on distributions to be lifted to 30%.
01:48All up the three tax hikes to raise $8.1 billion over four years.
01:54The aim? To rebalance the tax system.
01:56So that people who work for a living and earn wages
02:00are not treated substantially differently
02:02from people who make their income in other ways.
02:05The government's income is up.
02:07GST revenue $1.7 billion higher than forecast this financial year.
02:12The petroleum resource rent tax up $400 million.
02:15Both thanks to the conflict in the Middle East
02:18that's forced the government to spend billions
02:20cutting the fuel tax until July
02:22and building up Australia's fuel reserves.
02:25But there are some big savings.
02:28$36 billion cut from the NDIS
02:31and billions more axing a private health insurance discount
02:35for over 65s and reducing the use of contractors
02:38and labour hire companies.
02:40The combined effect improving the budget bottom line.
02:43This year's deficit is slightly lower at $28 billion.
02:47The budget to remain in the red over the forward estimates
02:51with a glimmer of hope beyond that.
02:53Treasury forecasting a surplus in a decade.
02:56Net debt expected to climb to $767 billion by 2030.
03:02The budget is stronger.
03:04The deficits are smaller and debt is lower.
03:06Inflation's now expected to peak at 5% this year,
03:10slowing to 2.5% from next year.
03:13Wages growth forecast to increase to 3.5% at the same time,
03:17meaning a real wage rise for workers.
03:20But there's a big but.
03:22If the Iran war continues,
03:25Treasury's warning inflation could remain persistently high,
03:28even hitting 7% if the price of oil doubles.
03:32Heavily dependent, heavily hostage to developments overseas.
03:37The war slowing economic growth too.
03:39It's been revised down to a sluggish 1.75% next year
03:44before rising again.
03:46Despite that, the jobless rate forecast to hover around 4.5%.
03:51One more figure worth mentioning, 54.
03:53That's the number of times the word uncertainty
03:56features in the main budget book.
04:02Stop saying what they're doing.
04:05So, there's a number of하지 options.
04:09That's the number of times the task.
04:09They were showing you or were reaching out for 1.5%
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