00:00This locks in the stalemate at the Fed, right? It really kind of solidifies the fact that they are
00:06on hold here indefinitely. But at least as you pointed out, there are some whiffs of both the
00:12AI productivity story and actually wage disinflation in these data, right? I mean,
00:20Francis said, you know, we've had seen kind of real wages start to go back up. And I don't see
00:25that. I mean, since they peaked in COVID, wage growth has been in a disinflationary trend.
00:30And that trend continues today, right? So maybe it's a shift in the labor mix from higher paying
00:37white collar tech and investment jobs, you know, to health care and education. But you are seeing
00:45disinflation on the wage story. So as a whole, this labor market picture is not an inflation. It's not
00:52adding to the inflationary story. It's the other things like energy and supply shortages that are
00:57causing the inflation. And those are things actually that the Fed can't control, right? They can control
01:03the demand side, not the supply side. So, you know, if anything, maybe this, you know, is just more fuel
01:09to the fire for, you know, someone like Warsh who can, you know, say, wow, look, you're seeing the
01:14productivity come through. You're not seeing wage pressures at all. You know, maybe ultimately he can
01:20sway a couple other members to cut rates, you know, in a year from that.
01:23Mike, with that in mind, as you look across the curve, twos, tens, thirties, given everything
01:27you've said this morning, you've said your bullish bonds, I imagine you still are. This number's not
01:31going to change that, of course. It might encourage it. Where's the opportunity across the curve right
01:35now? You know, it's really in that belly and, you know, to get inside the yield curve here,
01:41like that five to 10-year part is where we're long. The 20-year looks cheap. You get basically
01:45five to 20-year part of the curve is where we're overweight. That's, you know, the steeper part of the
01:49curve that's upward sloping and it looks like there's a lot of value there.
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