00:00if bitcoin closes up above 76 000 this month the bear market is definitively over bitcoin and
00:07ethereum are up over 20 since the start of the iran war i think billions of dollars are coming
00:12in through etfs on a monthly basis through the end of the year most crypto investors
00:18are missing this you're never in a bear market if bitcoin closes up three consecutive months
00:24bitcoin price switching over to the monthly
00:32is entering
00:39is entering its third straight month up this is not how markets act in bear markets this is how assets
00:49act in a bull market especially after dips in bull markets dips are very normal if we can close the
00:57month of may this says a lot as explained by head of research at funstrat tom lee at consensus conference
01:04this morning you're never in a bear market if bitcoin closes up three consecutive months so
01:10since the inception of bitcoin being up two months in a row could happen in a bear market for instance
01:17that happened in 2022 uh but you've never had three consecutive and let's be clear if tom lee is
01:24right and by the way he has not as you know if you subscribe to altcoin daily he has not
01:29always been
01:30right here's tom lee at the end of last year november explaining why he believes bitcoin will hit close to
01:36two hundred thousand dollars per coin when the year was about to end in six weeks so i think eventually
01:42we consolidate and then we rally into your end to the 150 uh yeah i think we can still get
01:49to 150
01:50200 for bitcoin and then something like 7 000 for ethereum yet tom lee has not always been wrong he's
01:57been right a lot we were covering this back in 2019 did you subscribe to altcoin daily back in 2019
02:04if so you made money you saw this we think the best approach for most people is just to put
02:09one percent
02:09or two percent are you saying that i get that if you're somebody who's got a lot of assets
02:14i i still think it's crazy i mean they literally called him crazy altcoin daily was saying yeah i
02:19think now is a good time to buy a little bitcoin but they literally were trying to discourage you
02:24well it's basically idea that you know you can afford to lose one percent if that's one percent of
02:27your portfolio but crazy and let's understand two big things number one if tom lee is right and if this
02:35is
02:35a start of a trend change a start of a new bull market then maybe it would look a lot
02:42something
02:42like this we're up then consolidation nothing months of pain so not price pain not downward pain but
02:52months of time pain this would also probably get a lot of investors out to discourage investors all
02:58while consolidation builds but also two maybe we do have a quick recovery after all most investors
03:06are still blind to this u.s democratic senator also brooks that's her name says i think the clarity act
03:13can pass i really do and i think we have resolved the yield issue our audience has really basic questions
03:19when it comes to clarity yeah is it gonna pass and is it gonna happen this year because when you
03:23talk
03:24about it you make it sound like there's still pretty long road you know what i think it can pass
03:27i really
03:28do i mean i think is that this year in this congress i think i think i hope so we've
03:31had a lot of work
03:33we've put a lot of work into this i mean we've been working tirelessly for months uh what it will
03:37mean
03:37is something we're gonna have to have some compromise you know i think everyone will walk away from the
03:41clarity table just a little unhappy both the banks and the crypto industry what do you compromise on
03:45now potentially well you know what we compromised and said we want the innovation to grow but we don't want
03:50to
03:50create bank-like products without this the protections of a bank you cannot pretend to be
03:54a bank-like product without the protection stable coin yields the biggest hold up that was a big
03:59hold up we're still there though right that was well i think we have i think we've resolved the yield
04:03issue you did we have resolved the yield issue in a way that i think prevents uh evasion of the
04:09laws
04:09uh again allows the innovation to grow but you know we we put some some i think some uh barriers
04:15in
04:15place um that will allow both to be a little unhappy but i think it's a way forward so this
04:21is
04:21coming and according to white house crypto chief patrick j witt he says they're targeting a july 4th
04:30signing for the clarity act which would be a tremendous birthday present for america celebrating
04:35our 250th birthday again all live at consensus miami this morning i'm bringing this to you i want to
04:41like this content i appreciate this great content we're going to advance this bill out of the senate
04:46banking committee this month we're going to get it on the senate floor we have four working weeks i
04:51believe in in june in the senate we'll be able to advance that legislation get a floor vote and then
04:56provide enough time for the house to pass it we're targeting july 4th i think that would be a tremendous
05:01tremendous birthday present for america celebrating our 250th let's talk about altcoin news this is
05:07significant this affects you but my bias for what's next for bitcoin is this is tom lee crazy are we
05:14about to start the next bull run to me my bias is it's very rare very rare that we just
05:22see one bounce
05:24in a bear market i mean it's good that we saw a bounce this is a sign of life this
05:28is positive
05:29but this was our first real bounce of the bear market actually i guess back according to tom lee's
05:36research we did just have the one bounce in the 2011 bear market and then we started the next bull
05:42so it is possible plus as bitcoin goes up for those trading if oil prices keep coming down like now
05:49like
05:50today okay so what's that doing to oil prices this morning lauren pushing them down you're at around
05:5591 a barrel the market hopes to close a deal and open the street that's actually really bullish for
06:01crypto and if you want access to professional charts we x trad fi you're able to trade global
06:07markets with crypto meaning you could trade gold trade stocks trade oil with zero fees i'm gonna
06:13put a link down below this lasts for only a week or only until the 16th so i'm short oil
06:20right now
06:21so definitely i think oil is topping out here um and again it's just a matter of when those straits
06:27get
06:27reopened and is it militarily or is it um diplomatically join now and trade crude oil and share
06:35up to a hundred and fifty thousand dollar prize pool and fifteen dollars immediately just as a welcome
06:41reward but at some point oil is going back down to 70 maybe even in the 50s and keep in
06:47mind as oil comes
06:48down bitcoin since the iran war started it's trending up bitcoin and ethereum are up over 20 since the start
06:55of
06:55iran war everything else is down equities managed into the green after a dip but that's a pretty
07:01important proof point and the one that sticks in my head from just a few years ago silicon valley bank
07:08first republic bitcoin at the same time went up so 125 okay maybe but diversification absolutely and even
07:17if worst case scenario the clarity act does not get passed i love this perspective from bitwise's matt
07:24hogan he nails this is there a scenario as well where say the clarity act doesn't go through and then
07:31the sentiment changes and just like we've seen in previous cycles where retail has has gone away is
07:37there a scenario where institutional capital goes away and they start pulling away from crypto it's not
07:43what we've seen so i'll tell you the bitwise experience we had essentially no outflows in 2018 we had no
07:48outflows in 2022 most of the etf money that came in is still there even though the market is off
07:5450
07:55the reason institutional capital is diamond hands at this point is that if you're an institution you're
08:01allocating to bitcoin you're still on the outlier so you're not going to allocate if you're 51 confident
08:07you're going to wait till you're 80 or 90 confident every piece of data suggests that it's some of the
08:13strongest holders of crypto that exist so i don't think we're going to see sentiment turn on its head
08:19uh even if the clarity act passes i think there'll be a wobble in the market but the institutional bid
08:24is still coming they know that crypto is volatile they're orienting around adding to it i think it's
08:30going to come almost regardless and if you trade crude oil sign up or get involved before the 16th and
08:36share a pool of 150 000 and major news for xrp jp morgan and mastercard make the first cross-border
08:46u.s treasury transfer via the xrp ledger and this is big for xrp because they were made they were
08:53going
08:53to make transfers like this anyway most people expected the ethereum blockchain maybe the solana
08:58blockchain but the fact that xrp got it and this is from juggernauts financial juggernauts this is
09:05signal the cross-border tokenized u.s treasury transaction using blockchain and banking rails rails
09:12builds on an earlier pilot in which the same fund moved between a public and permissioned blockchain
09:19so this is signal for xrp this is bullish this is also signal for ando finance the pilot transaction
09:27involved blockchain tokenized platform ando finance redeeming the u.s ando short-term government
09:34treasuries ousg fund for ripple on the xrp ledger if you're bullish on ando or xrp you love this let
09:43me
09:43know if you're long or short if you're shorting oil if you're long on oil down below in the comment
09:48section like all we see tomorrow keep you updated on all this
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