00:00From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East, to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings,
00:06here's what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.
00:11Oil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022,
00:18as the war with Iran enters a third month.
00:21While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz,
00:26the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.
00:32For each week, the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated.
00:35The greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth, or for some, both.
00:42Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.
00:47A new month is now underway, and some traders will be mindful of that old adage,
00:52sell in May and go away.
00:54As the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war,
00:59Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.
01:04The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists pull by Reuters forecast.
01:10In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024,
01:17but that followed a sharp decline in February.
01:20The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve,
01:24as Donald Trump's pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair, with the U.S. president keen on rate
01:31cuts.
01:33Thursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way,
01:39with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
01:45A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers,
01:51and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets.
01:56That would bring more bad news for British bonds.
01:59It's a big week for European earnings, with Shell and Commerce Bank among those reporting.
02:06On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG IBE-S.
02:13Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated.
02:16Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors, financials, tech, and energy.
02:22The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.
02:28But if the war and energy surge persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
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