00:00On March 30th, inside the secure confines of the Pentagon's war planning rooms,
00:05General Scott Kerr, the commander of U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM,
00:09presented at least three military options to President Donald Trump.
00:13The target, Iran.
00:15According to three anonymous sources who spoke to U.S. media,
00:19the options ranged from limited strikes to full-scale operations.
00:23Each was designed to be short in duration, but highly effective.
00:27Among the proposals, one, capture the Strait of Hormuz,
00:32a naval and amphibious operation to seize full control of the world's most critical oil choke point.
00:38Two, a special operation to seize Iranian nuclear facilities,
00:42targeting key factories in the Kala region, likely a reference to Natanz, Fordo, or Isfahan.
00:49Three, a third unspecified option,
00:52described only as a clear plan to seize part of the Gulf of Aden to reopen free navigation.
00:58President Trump has confirmed receiving a summary of the plan.
01:02General Kerr's proposal, according to the sources, is already prepared for execution.
01:08If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is resumed, and if the operation is successful,
01:14it would be the shortest but most effective of the three options.
01:17The U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. military have not responded to requests for comment.
01:24The presentation came against the backdrop of an ongoing, undeclared war.
01:29Since February 28th, U.S. and Israeli forces have been conducting joint operations against Iran.
01:36The stated goal?
01:37Weaken the Iranian regime and destroy its nuclear weapons capability.
01:41Iran has not sat idle.
01:43In response, it has fired hundreds of thousands of missiles and cruise missiles at two sets of targets.
01:49Israel, directly targeting Israeli cities and military installations.
01:54Gulf states, specifically, bases where U.S. forces are stationed, including in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.
02:02The most intense phase of the conflict occurred approximately three weeks ago.
02:07Despite multiple attempts by Iran to mediate, reaching out through third-party countries,
02:12the dispute remains deadlocked.
02:14The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the stalemate.
02:18The consequences of the standoff are already visible in global energy markets.
02:23Less than 40 Iranian ships have been pushed back to their ports.
02:27These vessels were meant to carry approximately 70 million barrels of oil to the Asia-Pacific market.
02:33That oil never arrived.
02:35Since April 13th alone, Iran has lost an estimated $6 billion in foreign oil sales.
02:42The Strait of Hormuz, which normally sees the passage of oil from the Middle East and Africa to European and
02:48Asian markets,
02:49has been effectively shut.
02:51Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply transits this narrow waterway, most of it destined for Asia.
02:58President Trump has recently escalated his rhetoric, threatening to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure if the conflict continues.
03:06International law experts have responded with alarm.
03:10Under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, specifically the provisions on humanitarian aid and the conduct of warfare,
03:18the destruction of civilian infrastructure is a violation of international law.
03:23Such acts could be considered war crimes.
03:26Trump's response, according to sources close to the White House, has been dismissive.
03:31There is no such law, he has reportedly declared,
03:35when the world is rescuing a nation from a murderous regime
03:38and reducing a country that is threatening to use weapons of mass destruction.
03:43Legal scholars disagree.
03:45The laws of war apply equally to all nations, one expert told a news outlet.
03:50You cannot bomb hospitals, schools, and power plants just because you believe your cause is just.
03:58The Iranian war effort does not yet have the full support of the American people.
04:03Polling remains mixed.
04:04However, most Republican politicians in Congress continue to support Trump's plan.
04:10Trump's strong air stance on the Strait of Hormuz has actually regained him some political support.
04:16Voters who previously criticized his foreign policy now see him as taking decisive action.
04:23As one analyst noted, Trump prefers cold means over hot means, economic pressure and naval blockade over full-scale invasion.
04:32So far, that approach has maintained his base while costing fewer American lives.
04:37But experts warn of the risks.
04:39If Trump had ordered a full naval invasion on the first day of the war,
04:44Iran, with its demonstrated ability to use drones and missiles,
04:47would likely have launched a major attack on American warships.
04:51The result could have been a full-scale naval war with heavy U.S. casualties.
04:56Within the Pentagon, a fierce debate is underway about how much of Iran's missile and drone capability has been destroyed.
05:03General Kerr and CENTCOM believe that U.S. air and naval attacks have significantly reduced the ability
05:09of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, to launch missiles and drones.
05:15They argue that Israel's parallel campaign has contributed substantially to this degradation.
05:21The estimates vary widely.
05:24Source, estimated loss of Iranian missile-slash-drone capability.
05:29Israeli Defense Ministry, 70%.
05:32General Kerr and Top Brass, 90% plus.
05:36U.S. intelligence agencies, 50%.
05:39The discrepancy is significant.
05:42If U.S. intelligence is correct, Iran retains half of its pre-war missile and drone arsenal,
05:48enough to inflict serious damage on U.S. warships and Israeli cities.
05:53If General Kerr is correct, Iran is nearly defenseless.
05:57Most experts lean toward the middle.
05:59Iran has lost approximately 60% to 70% of its capability, but the remaining 30% to 40%
06:07is still dangerous.
06:08Moreover, much of that remaining capability is stored in hardened underground facilities that have not yet been targeted.
06:15Washington's strategy, according to sources, is to launch a rapid strike on Iran's missile storage sites.
06:23Such a strike would immediately reduce Iran's remaining capability, potentially to near zero.
06:28If we hit the storage sites before they can launch, one military planner said, we can take most of their
06:35remaining missiles out of the fight.
06:37The key is speed and surprise.
06:40General Kerr's plan to seize the Gulf of Aden from IRGC control is the most aggressive option.
06:47Washington knows that such a seizure will provoke a response from Iran.
06:51But the administration believes that Iran, facing overwhelming force, will quickly agree to negotiations, or collapse.
06:59The generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are not backing down.
07:04Publicly and privately, they claim that they can fight against the combined U.S.-Israeli military for many months to come.
07:12General Iran of the IRGC has stated that Iran's missiles are not yet exhausted.
07:18Our missiles and ammunition are still safely stored in underground facilities, he said.
07:23We have plenty of opportunities to fire at many U.S. and Israeli Targics.
07:28If America attacks us again, we will respond.
07:31General Iran also issued a direct warning about the U.S. warships currently deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.
07:39The refusal to allow our warships to leave the Strait, he said, gives our military a choice.
07:45Either we attack or we destroy the U.S. warships that are crying in our waters.
07:51The threat is taken seriously by Pentagon planners.
07:55While Iran's Navy is no match for the U.S. Navy in a conventional surface battle,
08:00Iran's asymmetric capabilities, swarms of small speedboats, anti-ship cruise missiles, and underwater drones,
08:08could still pose a significant threat.
08:10The United States has deployed significant naval forces to the region.
08:15According to reports, 16 warships are currently deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.
08:20100 warplanes accompany these warships, ready to launch operations.
08:26Multiple aircraft carriers are training in the Middle East.
08:29The specific deployments include
08:31Vessel, USS Lincoln, USS Lincoln, Red Sea, cargo ship, name not specified, Arabian Sea, tugboat, name not specified,
08:43Oban Sea, likely Gulf of Oman, USS George Howard, likely USS George H.W. Bush, preparing to leave Middle East
08:53for Mediterranean.
08:53The USS Sarumlin, name may be a transcription error, possibly USS Samson or another vessel,
09:01is currently in the Red Sea, approximately 1,500 kilometers from the Iranian coast.
09:08Military experts have warned that U.S. warships positioned too close to the Iranian coast are extremely vulnerable.
09:14Iran's missile and drone capabilities, even if degraded, could still reach ships within 1,000 kilometers.
09:22The ideal defensive posture, experts say, is to keep warships at least 2,000 kilometers from the enemy's coast.
09:29This puts them outside the range of most Iranian missiles and allows carrier-based aircraft to strike without risking the
09:36carrier itself.
09:37The USS George Howard is reportedly being withdrawn from the Middle East to a safer position in the Mediterranean,
09:44approximately 2,000 kilometers from Iran.
09:47The USS Sarumlin, at 1,500 kilometers, is still within range of some Iranian missiles.
09:55If Iran launches a coordinated attack, one naval analyst said, the ships in the Red Sea could be hit.
10:02The ships in the strait itself would be in extreme danger.
10:05Experts are unanimous on one point.
10:09Iran cannot win a conventional naval battle against the United States.
10:14The Iranian Navy is simply not capable.
10:17What remains of Iran's fleet consists primarily of small, high-speed boats equipped with cannons and machine guns,
10:24a handful of aging frigates and corvettes, coastal defense batteries, submarines, mostly small, diesel-electric vessels.
10:32None of these can stand up to a U.S. destroyer, cruiser, or aircraft carrier in a direct engagement.
10:39However, Iran does not need to win a conventional battle.
10:43It only needs to inflict enough damage to deter or delay a U.S. invasion.
10:48A single anti-ship missile hitting a U.S. destroyer or a swarm of small boats overwhelming a patrol would
10:56be a propaganda victory for Iran and a political disaster for the White House.
11:00Part 12. The Strait of Hormuz, the prize and the trap.
11:05If the United States seizes the Strait of Hormuz, according to General Kerr's map,
11:10U.S. Central Command will effectively control the most strategic waterway in the world.
11:15Every oil tanker from the Persian Gulf would have to pass through a U.S.-controlled choke point.
11:21But seizing the strait is easier than holding it.
11:24Iran has spent decades preparing to defend the strait.
11:27It has mined the shipping lanes, deployed anti-ship missiles on both sides of the waterway,
11:34positioned small attack boats in hidden coves, built coastal defense batteries into the mountains.
11:40A U.S. operation to capture the strait would likely succeed, but at a cost.
11:45And once captured, U.S. forces would face an ongoing insurgency from IRGC units operating from the Iranian mainland.
11:53The most important question remains unanswered.
11:56Will President Trump order the strike?
11:59General Kerr's plan is ready.
12:01The warships are in position.
12:03The warplanes are fueled and armed.
12:05The Israeli military is coordinating closely with CENTCOM.
12:09But the political calculus is complex.
12:12Trump does not have full public support.
12:15The economic cost of a prolonged conflict would be enormous.
12:19And if the operation goes wrong,
12:21If U.S. casualties are high or if Iran retaliates successfully,
12:26the political fallout could end his presidency.
12:29For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains a stalemate.
12:33Iranian ships sit trapped in port.
12:35U.S. warships patrol the choke point.
12:38And General Kerr waits in his command center,
12:41watching the clock,
12:42waiting for the order that could start the next great war in the Middle East.
12:46Inext deducted
12:46A stand of normalвет
12:46Mr. Wagon
12:47No
12:47No
12:47No
12:47Day
12:47No
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