00:00The U.S.-Iranian conflict has deeply damaged Iran's leadership structure and the military
00:05capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, KOR IRGC, including its missiles,
00:12drones, and warships. Contrary to what both the U.S. and Iran claim, the country is losing its
00:19ability to deliver serious strikes. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stated
00:25that despite the killing of key government leaders, the country maintains a strong
00:30leadership structure with immediate replacements ready. In this new context, the world's eyes are
00:36now on the U.S. military's deployment of warships to the Strait of Hormusta, economic lifeblood of
00:42the Iranian regime. To provide an analytical perspective, we turn to the explanation of
00:47Mr. Nunburen, as shared via YouTube and Facebook groups. We can begin by examining the consequences
00:53Iran faces as it tries to maintain its leadership. The conflict and economic tension continue with
01:00the closure of the Gulf of Amman-Iran's most important economic lifeline. From the start,
01:06divisions have emerged within Iran's leadership between IRGC generals and the Majlis parliament,
01:11both of which hold influence over the government. The IRGC has consistently pushed President Masood
01:18Bazashkin's government to reach an early agreement with the United States. Meanwhile, the Majlis and
01:25surviving top generals believe that the only parties capable of preventing a wider war are the U.S. and
01:31Israel. However, if we examine a 40-day period of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, we see significant losses.
01:38The Middle East Studies Group found that Iran lost an estimated $300 million in economic resources
01:44during such strikes. These airstrikes targeted energy infrastructure, oil and gas facilities,
01:51and transportation networks in major industrial centers, including steel and chemical plants.
01:57All were severely damaged before a 14-day ceasefire was reached on April 8. The Center for Regional
02:03Studies reported that Iran lost $300 billion in financial support for its government and society.
02:09During the war, the Iranian market saw the U.S. dollar soar by nearly 200 percent,
02:16severely affecting ordinary citizens, workers, civil servants, and even military families.
02:23The Iranian currency has depreciated so drastically that buying a chicken at the market now requires
02:28waiting for it to be packed and placed in a large bag before you can purchase it and return home,
02:34a sign of extreme inflation.
02:36The international financial system predicts that by 2026, Iran's economic infrastructure will be
02:42under severe strain, already losing revenue due to a direct economic blockade by U.S. warships.
02:48Iran which exports crude oil through both legal and black market channels is losing over $435
02:54million per day. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iran's treasury will soon be unable to
03:00pay salaries to workers, civil servants, and the military. If the U.S. continues to block the
03:07Strait of Hormuz and intercept? Iranian oil tanker Zaz has already happened with three tankers in the
03:13Indian Oseeran's crude. Oil sales to black markets, especially to China and India, will collapse.
03:20China alone has lost nearly one million barrels of crude oil from Iranian ships hit by the U.S. military.
03:26According to U.S. military command, since the blockade began, most ships leaving Iran for
03:32East and South Asian markets have been turned back. Of 33 large tankers, all have returned to
03:38Iran's coast. The U.S. has also deployed warships to the Gulf of Aden, reducing Iran's crude and raw
03:44material exports by 70%. Neighboring countries have also been affected, but far less than Iran.
03:50During the current U.S.-Israeli war, over 1 million young Iranians have lost their jobs. In the coming
03:57months, that number could reach 12 million. The factories where they worked iron and steel plants,
04:03food and chemical factories have been destroyed by U.S. and Israeli bombs. Many of these factories
04:08employed tens of thousands of workers each. The Iranian currency has plummeted so much that salaries
04:15for civil servants, military personnel, and police can no longer keep up. If the economy collapses,
04:21Iranian society will become further distant. Experts warn that Tehran's regime could face
04:27major unrest, as most young Iranians do not support the Islamic Republic and may seek a new regime.
04:33Some experts estimate that 85% of Iran's 92 million people oppose the current system,
04:40which could serve as a catalyst for revolution. Millions of workers going on strike simultaneously
04:45as happened in January 2026 Kutkazi economy, already crushed by U.S. pressure to collapse
04:52very quickly. President Masood Pazeshkin has reportedly admitted that the National Treasury has no money
04:58to pay workers, police, and soldiers in the coming weeks. A centrist politician, Pazeshkin revealed
05:06to economists that Iran's gross income has been lost due to economic collapse and the destruction
05:13of infrastructure by U.S. bombing. The Institute for Defense Studies confirmed that since the U.S.
05:19destroyed key infrastructure, including industrial sites, food plants, and chemical plants employing
05:25hundreds of thousands of workers, Iran's daily income has dropped by $435 million or more.
05:32The U.S. Central Command reports that blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million
05:37barrels of oil per day could pass, would cost Iran up to $500 million daily. Before the war,
05:44China was Iran's largest market, absorbing over 80% of Iranian crude oil via black market channels.
05:51But now, the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil ships has pressured even China and India, forcing them
05:57to turn to Russia. President Donald Trump has allowed Russia to sell weapons abroad for another month,
06:04further straining Iran's position. Air transport is also risky. As the U.S. has announced, it will
06:10seize any ship suspected of carrying weapons from Iran, regardless of destination. Two ships carrying
06:164 million barrels of oil to East Asia have already been intercepted in the Indian Ocean. With removal
06:22expected next week, Middle East analysts believe Iran can withstand the blockade for less than three
06:28months. If the economy collapses, Iran's industrial chain will stop. Factories will close due to lack
06:35of orders and transport to foreign markets. Even if Iran tries to produce goods for domestic sale,
06:41people cannot afford them at prices hundreds of times higher than the Iranian currency's value.
06:46Researchers also warn that if the U.S. launches a war of attrition, targets like power plants,
06:51bridges, and factories could be hit. President Trump has warned that without a deal,
06:57the U.S. and Israel will target all strategic points. Experts believe Iran could collapse
07:02economically. And that collapse could come from war. Even if Iran retaliates with missiles,
07:08its arsenal would be reduced by 60 to 70 percent within 40 days. According to the Israeli Ministry of
07:15Defense, only 30 percent would remain. And any mobile forces would be quickly destroyed by U.S.
07:21and Israeli bombers. That is why Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister believe further
07:27fighting is likely if negotiations fail. Many scholars conclude that Iran's leadership is losing
07:32its main engine and strategic direction, and the regime will not remain strong for long. Divisions have
07:39already emerged between extremists and moderates, and between President, Pozeskian's government,
07:45and IRGC generals. Observers even suggest the IRGC could stage a coup to overthrow its own government,
07:53which would end all negotiations with the U.S. In that case, the U.S. would have to decide whether
08:00to withdraw or wage war to end military rule and restore a new regime. If a new regime emerges,
08:07two options are possible. A democratic monarchy or a republic, not the current Islamic republic.
08:15Democratic forces could form a national assembly in Tehran, establishing a multi-party regime
08:20committed to democracy, freedom, and social justice. Such a regime would prioritize economic
08:26space for the Iranian people, rather than funding nuclear weapons or long-range missile programs to
08:32vary, factors that led the U.S. and Israel to launch war, attack, and blockade the Strait of Hormuz in
08:40the
08:40first place.
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