- 5 hours ago
Without a Premier League win all year and on the brink of European elimination, Tottenham are in freefall. Only 1 point separates them from the relegation places, and with Nottingham Forest, Leeds, and West Ham all picking up points, Championship football has becomes a serious conversation. Adam Clery examines what Igor Tudor thinks he's doing with this team, as well as what the underlying numbers for all four teams suggest about their upcoming fortunes.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel where I started the season
00:04by saying what a good appointment I thought Thomas Frank might be for Spurs.
00:10Sensational appointment.
00:11And it's now March and we have to do a video about whether they could actually, actually get relegated.
00:19Which of course, to slightly misquote Mick McCarthy, they can.
00:26So yes, two things we're going to look at today.
00:29First off, what is it exactly that Igor Tudor thinks he's doing with this team?
00:34And then what do the underlying numbers tell us about their chances compared to these other teams?
00:41And I don't want to spoil the rest of the video, but if you are a Spurs fan, none of
00:46it is particularly good reading.
00:50Or watching as it would be in this case, obviously.
00:52Now, just a little reminder before we begin, ACFC is now proudly brought to you in partnership with Trading 212.
00:58There will be a nice little fun advert for them later on.
01:01But just in case you're wondering why I'm joined by Teddy Sheringham here.
01:06Eh?
01:06That's why.
01:07Anyway though, this is the league table as it currently stands.
01:10And we've got Leeds, Spurs, Forest and West Ham United all separated by three points.
01:16Now, the purists amongst you will tell you this is a proper relegation dogfight, won't they?
01:21Which is true, I think.
01:23But the problem is that it's all the dogs from the f***ing Goofy movie.
01:27Anyway though, the problem for Spurs is not this.
01:31It's this.
01:32The form table over the last ten games.
01:35Because here, yes, Leeds and Nottingham Forest are not pulling up any trees.
01:39Pun very much intended.
01:41But there is only really one relegation spot left.
01:45And Spurs are by about a million gajillion miles the worst team in the division over this period.
01:53And yes, you're right, it is absolutely mad to look at that.
01:55Because West Ham, who are currently 18th in the league, only have one win less in this period than Chelsea
02:02and Manchester City.
02:03Now, I don't know what you did with your Sunday evening, but I went and got all of the attacking
02:09and defensive numbers for the four teams in question.
02:12And then worked out how to plot a five game running average for all of those totals.
02:18So you can see who's trending up and who's trending down.
02:21And then managed to like colour grade it so you don't even have to really use your brain to think.
02:26You just instinctively can see it when you look at it.
02:29Now we are first going to have a look at what Tudor is doing with this team.
02:32So you can see what is happening on the pitch.
02:35But don't worry, we will absolutely be getting all the way up to the elbow joint in these graphs later
02:41on.
02:41So this is a look at Tottenham season as a whole, right?
02:44And after deciding that Thomas Frank needed to be fired out of a cannon and into the sun,
02:49the man they replaced him with was someone with a reputation for, let's say, immediate uplifts.
02:56He's had like 12 managerial jobs, but in the five times he's been in this sort of situation,
03:01taking over a team on the slide.
03:03He has come in and very quickly turned it around.
03:07Udinese twice, Hellas Verona, Lazio and Juventus on every occasion.
03:11He's made them more front foot.
03:13He's defended higher up the pitch and he has improved things in both boxes,
03:17which does obviously sound really good.
03:20But the one wrinkle here is that he's a manager who primarily, in fact, almost entirely,
03:25plays with a back three.
03:27And that's obviously a major departure from what Tottenham had been doing under Thomas Frank.
03:31Now, if you remember his first game against Arsenal, he started that with this quite conservative
03:363-5-2.
03:38But then immediately afterwards for the Fulham game,
03:40and I'll just have to get my magic wand out here, right?
03:43He quite quickly abandoned it in favour of this 4-2-3-1,
03:48probably presuming the players will be more familiar with the roles.
03:50But then, against Crystal Palace at home, one second, he returned to using a back three,
03:56but this time in more of a sort of 3-4-2-1 shape.
04:00Now, don't get me wrong, in the long term, I don't hate that.
04:04If you're a manager, you've got to try and find something that's going to work for you.
04:08But the problem is that Spurs need immediate short-term results.
04:12And you can see straight away, this lack of stability looks like a bit of a problem.
04:17Against Palace, Pedro Poro did not look comfortable at the right of a back three.
04:21Kolo Mouane barely touched the ball.
04:23And even before the red card, they looked quite uncomfortable trying to play this shape.
04:29For the offside goal, you can see them trying to defend higher up the pitch like he wants,
04:34but Palace bypassed the midfield so easily.
04:37And because van der Venz pushed up on Gessand, he's able to get the run on him in behind.
04:42And it's obviously only the most marginal, like it was his nose or something, wasn't it,
04:47offside stops that being a goal.
04:49Then for the equaliser, which is somehow worse,
04:51they've got five players here defending the centre of the pitch,
04:55but Palace still manage to play the ball through them.
04:58Van der Venz reads the danger, tries to jump out onto Saar,
05:01but that again just pulls him out of position.
05:03And when it's headed back, he's now on the wrong side.
05:07And it obviously looks like really bad defending from him because...
05:10Well, because it is, but the fact is that pass should never be allowed
05:14to happen in the first place with the amount of bodies they've got in this area.
05:20Alright, so I know exactly what you're thinking.
05:22There's no way you're any good with your money, Adam.
05:24You've not even ironed that shirt correctly, but you'd be wrong.
05:28Because I'm now a bona fide Trading212 customer
05:31and well on my way to owning this yacht.
05:36Yes, Trading212 currently has an exclusive cash ISA for ACFC viewers,
05:40giving you a market-leading interest rate in the first 12 months
05:44on contributions made in the current tax year.
05:47But what is a cash ISA?
05:49Great question, I have to ask my mom.
05:51It is a simple, tax-free way to save money.
05:56It's often used for short-term savings like an emergency fund
05:59or money for holidays because you can usually access it when you need it.
06:02You'll also typically earn more interest than just leaving it sitting in a current account
06:07and you don't pay tax on the interest you earn.
06:09Ooh.
06:10The Trading212 cash ISA offers flexible access, unlimited withdrawals
06:14and a straightforward sign-up process.
06:17New customers can register through the exclusive link in the description
06:20or use the promo code ACFC, eh, to access the offer.
06:25And just to read you a direct quote from Mother Cleary here,
06:29your money's doing nothing for you if it's just sitting in the same current account
06:33you've had since you were 16, you useless...
06:37Yes, can personally say, good idea this.
06:42Back to the video.
06:44But the thing is, right, the main feature of Igor Trudor's play,
06:49and especially with his Marseille team, for example,
06:51was winning the ball high up the pitch.
06:54There was this really nice little graph here from Opto when he was appointed
06:58showing all of the high turnovers they got that season.
07:02It was the third most in the entire French League.
07:05And you're right, yes, there are only two goals coming from this.
07:08They weren't really that good at converting those chances.
07:11But in terms of his style of play, it worked really well for them.
07:14They were horrible to play against.
07:16But Tottenham, by contrast, have been absolutely terrible at that this season.
07:21Which is, yes, mostly by design, because Thomas Frank didn't want them pressing
07:25high up the pitch all that very often.
07:27But if you go and look at the numbers,
07:28they're ranking the bottom three of the league right now
07:31for shots generated from a high turnover.
07:34They managed to get three against Fulham and got two shots from doing that,
07:38and then five against Palace, but didn't turn any of those into a chance.
07:42Now, the goal against Arsenal does quite literally come from a high turnover,
07:46so that's a good sign.
07:48But they were averaging 6.3 high turnovers a game under Thomas Frank.
07:54Thank you, Opta.
07:55And they're currently averaging less than that under Igor Tudor.
07:59So for all they're trying to do this more,
08:01it's not actually yielding any results yet.
08:04Instead, what it is doing is making them more vulnerable.
08:07You see the disorganisation apparent in both of those Crystal Palace chances.
08:11But against Fulham, you literally have Paulina and Bissouma running into each other
08:17as they both go to close down the same player.
08:20And that's a mistake that looks silly, yes,
08:22but it also takes them both completely out of the game.
08:25Fulham get up the pitch and very nearly score from that exact moment.
08:29Like, undeniably, they are pressing with more aggression
08:31and trying to get up the pitch,
08:33but there's very little coordination to it at present,
08:35and so it's causing more problems than it appears to be fixing.
08:39But the thing is, you don't need me to tell you
08:43that Tottenham are very bad at the minute.
08:46You have eyes, you can see that.
08:48The question is, are they worse than the teams around them
08:53at the bottom of the league right now?
08:55And that is where I, Grafael van der Vaart, Grafa Benitez, step in.
09:01So this is what I pull together for them, right?
09:03It's every Premier League game here,
09:05the results, obviously, the shots they both had and faced,
09:10and the XG both for and against.
09:13And because that's, like, loads of numbers,
09:15it's very difficult for your brain to look at.
09:17I've also done here this, like, rolling five-game average
09:21so you can see it as trends in form.
09:24And the deeper the colour, the higher the number,
09:26with, just like anything that comes out of your nose, right,
09:30green being good and red being bad.
09:33The story of Tottenham's season is just so obvious.
09:38Like, they were so, so negative in the earlier parts of the season,
09:42shots and XG both being very low,
09:45while the chances they were facing stayed pretty consistently not great.
09:51Now, this line here is where Thomas Frank eventually gets the boot.
09:54But if you look at the games just above that,
09:57you can see he was finally, finally making them more adventurous
10:01in front of goal without leaving them open at the back.
10:04But crucially, the really big problem
10:07is that even though the numbers are improving here,
10:10you can see the results didn't.
10:13It was all too little too late.
10:14And the problem is that since then,
10:16and going back to the start of this losing streak,
10:19the defensive numbers have absolutely fallen off a cliff
10:22at the same rate the attacking numbers have started to regress.
10:26Like I showed you at the start of the video,
10:28the league table over the last 10 games, right?
10:30And if you go and look at them,
10:31Tottenham have only failed to score in one of those matches,
10:35which is a better record than all the other teams down the bottom.
10:39But the problem is that they've also conceded fucking way, way more goals.
10:44Now, don't get me wrong, right?
10:46Tudor may yet stumble across some sort of winning formula.
10:49He may find a discarded genie lamp with one wish left remaining.
10:53But if you look at the performances and you look at the numbers,
10:57then right now they both say that Tottenham are not going to suddenly save themselves.
11:03They cannot defend anywhere near well enough to grind out the results they would need
11:08to guarantee anything.
11:10So the real, real question then becomes,
11:13are the three teams around them going to somehow let them get away with that or not?
11:21Leads, you can see here, are also on a bit of a slide.
11:25Their chance creation has started to dry up now that the league is getting a handle
11:28on that big tactical change that Daniel Tharka instigated,
11:32and you can see it on the graph, right here.
11:35Like there is a visible, immediate impact that formation change had
11:39at both ends of the field.
11:41They created a lot more chances, they defended a lot better,
11:44and were rewarded with that with this run of form.
11:47Now they've got Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Burnley and Spurs still to play this season,
11:52and you would think simply not losing those games, maybe even winning one or two,
11:57will be enough to keep them up.
11:59And also, having a three-point buffer at this stage is massive.
12:03Forest, though, are the really interesting one here,
12:06and I've marked all of the managerial sackings on the graph,
12:10which is still absolutely mad,
12:12and you can see that because Daesh took a while to get them defending better,
12:16their results are weird.
12:19They somehow had only nine shots against Palace,
12:22but then 35 against Wolves,
12:24and still managed, somehow, to draw both games.
12:27Now, of course, under Vitor Pereira,
12:29the results are yet to magically appear,
12:32but they ground out a point against Man City, somehow,
12:35and I thought they were quite unlucky against both Brighton and Liverpool.
12:39And their run-in is obviously the toughest of the lot,
12:41but Burnley at home and a trip to Spurs
12:44mean that if they can still keep all the other games tight,
12:47there will be some points there for them.
12:50And when you look at the other games,
12:51I don't think Villa, Fulham, or Newcastle
12:54will be particularly relishing going to the city ground, either,
12:57if there is any sort of wind in their sails.
13:00But then, you get to West Ham, right?
13:03And...
13:05bloody hell.
13:06They were awful after Nuno came in,
13:08but you can see as the season's gone on,
13:10they've become very steadily better in front of goal
13:14and tighter at the back.
13:16In fact, if you go all the way back to them beating Tottenham,
13:19not that very long ago,
13:20they've been dramatically better at both ends of the pitch
13:24and really did deserve the four wins and two draws they've got since.
13:28Their only defeats coming away to Liverpool and Chelsea as well
13:31is quite telling.
13:33Now, for them, having Sydney and Villa up next
13:35just as they were hitting a bit of form
13:37is a bit of a raw deal.
13:39But then after that,
13:40it's Palace, Wolves, Everton,
13:42and Leeds on the final day.
13:44So, despite the fact they are currently bottom
13:46of this little mini-league,
13:48they are also playing way better
13:50than the other three teams.
13:52And, bizarrely, you would probably say
13:54they look the most likely to stay up out of the four.
13:57And just, if you're looking at that,
13:59thinking, wow,
14:00that looks like a stylish and informative football data app.
14:02I wish I could download something like that.
14:05Then you can,
14:06because that is from our data pals at FopMob
14:09who also work with us here.
14:11I have it on my phone.
14:12It has, like, fixtures, results,
14:14heat maps now,
14:14loads of cool stats,
14:15stuff like that.
14:16The link is in the description.
14:17Be like me and have it.
14:19Now, I know exactly what you're thinking, right?
14:21That sure is a whole lot of numbers there, Adam.
14:24But if you've got anything I could actually take to the pub
14:26and explain to a normal person,
14:28and, um, yes, sort of,
14:31depending on who you drink with.
14:32Here are the actual goals,
14:35all the shots, the XG,
14:36both for and against,
14:37across those last 10 games,
14:39all lined up comparatively
14:41with the differences between the two,
14:43so you can see how bad or good they are.
14:46And the reality is that over this recent spell,
14:49Tottenham are clearly not going to score
14:52their way out of this,
14:53and they've conceded vastly more.
14:57But the one tiny glimmer of hope
15:00I can give you, Mr. or Mrs. Spurs fan,
15:02is that away from the actual goals scored and conceded,
15:06the underlying numbers
15:08are not quite as bad as that.
15:10They do still create a decent number of chances.
15:13They're just giving away
15:14more than everybody else down there.
15:17And on a rolling XG difference,
15:19there is only Nottingham Forest
15:21who might be in slightly more trouble,
15:25especially given the fixtures they've got.
15:28Spurs have already lost to West Ham at home,
15:31and Leeds and Forest are still to visit.
15:34Like, I cannot believe I'm saying this,
15:36but I genuinely think their entire season,
15:40all their hopes of staying in this division,
15:43come down to those two games.
15:46Like, West Ham look to me like they're going to climb out of this
15:49with something to spare.
15:50So if Leeds beat them,
15:51they're not going to catch them.
15:53And if Forest beat them and get above them,
15:56it's really hard to see
15:57where the points are going to come from.
15:59And that's all, like,
16:01without even considering all the injuries
16:03they're still having,
16:04or the fact that,
16:05at the point of me recording this,
16:07they're still in the Champions League,
16:09which,
16:10I mean, none of it helps, does it?
16:13So, yes,
16:14if you're a Tottenham fan,
16:16then I'm sorry I don't have better news.
16:20Hopefully you enjoyed that Raphael van der Vaart joke,
16:23if nothing else.
16:25But please let me know,
16:26because I'm sure you've got some opinions,
16:27what your thoughts are on this in the comments.
16:30Do you,
16:31you don't actually think you're going to get relegated,
16:34do you?
16:34Or have you already made your peace with that?
16:36I would love to read all of that,
16:38because I'm a Newcastle fan.
16:40I've been right here.
16:41As for the rest of you, though,
16:43you can subscribe to us here
16:44at the Adam Cleary Football Channel.
16:46You can follow me across all the social medias,
16:47at Adam Cleary,
16:48C-L-E-R-Y.
16:49You can sign up for our wonderful partners,
16:51Trading 212,
16:52and that cool cash isa thing
16:54that I literally have.
16:55And, of course,
16:56our Data Buddies Fopmob.
16:58You can download their app
16:59in the description as well.
17:01I think that's all the things
17:02I have to tell you about.
17:03If I've forgotten any,
17:05I'm sorry.
17:07Deal with it.
17:08I'll see you soon.
17:09Have a nice day.
17:10Bye.
Comments