- hace 6 semanas
Luis Duque, fue estratega político en las campañas de Enrique Peña Nieto, Juan Orlando Hernández, Henrique Capriles y el presidente Juan Manuel Santos, analiza la caída en las encuestas en la favorabilidad del primer mandatario.
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00:03Good afternoon, welcome to the video chat. I'm Marcia Rosario, president of the Política del Espectador.
00:09And today we are joining Luis Enrique, a reconocido asesor político, who has been extradera,
00:15has been working on campaigns such as the Trinity Peña Nieto and Juan Manuel Santos.
00:20It is an important issue, an important issue for the political community that currently lives in the country.
00:26And I would like to start by asking a little bit about the popularity of the actual president of Juan
00:34Manuel Santos.
00:35And the surveys that have been released recently show that his level of acceptation and favorability has been reduced in
00:44the last few years.
00:47How do you see the panorama of the president of Juan Manuel Santos?
00:50Well, one of the most important things is that the president, in the last election, that is legal,
00:57that has been published in the media, the president has been reduced from 42 to 42 percent.
01:04That is the most valuable than the president of the world.
01:10Okay.
01:11Because it seems to me a lot of a lot of people who have been released in August 2013 when
01:16he was born.
01:16Exactly.
01:17I believe that there were four great crashes.
01:20The first, the first crash, was when there was the war in Bernal.
01:28There was a lot of people who have been in the past.
01:32There was a lot of people who have been in the past.
01:39and they started causing him a lot of Labs that the second one had several different factors.
01:47Again, there was also many barrier issues.
01:50There was also some issues such as Mr. Hunter, they tried to put apparently on ,
01:57...by the worksheet with empresa to put the gun in the world out there,
02:00...we handled theural difference of theila,
02:04...unout of the criminal justice attack,
02:06...you too, in all the police택,
02:10The President should be able to govern more in the future.
02:14There are factors that have been extended,
02:19and I have the thinking of which President does.
02:22I think that the President is going to govern more
02:26for the generations, more in the future.
02:29since the process of peace
02:31we have the exact same
02:32the same
02:34and the same
02:35and that that we are not
02:36worried and that
02:37if we don't feel
02:39the impact we don't need
02:43is that we are not
02:44we're not recent
02:45we are not seeing
02:46is that
02:46is it easy
02:49to revert
02:50that negative
02:51is that
02:52it's not about
02:53politics
02:53and
02:53although
02:54many times
02:55said that
02:56we've went
02:56to vote
02:57in the
02:57It's a favor and contra of the peace, not the President.
03:02The image, in any way, depends on the situation and the situation in which the President can also affect that.
03:07Is it easy to divert that negative tendency as a result of this?
03:12And I think that the President must be thinking in his favor of the peace.
03:19I think that the President is going for the peace.
03:24It's not a proposal, but it's a false.
03:25So this little benefit has many negatives that they have.
03:29But in this moment, the President wants to take its project
03:34but they're losing its report called and we have to do a certain person.
03:39And other than the 2009 Senator黑 so it's going after the election.
03:42For the second election, the President is going for the Bingham 안
03:47and they're going for a number of countries there already.
03:52And it affects why people are counteract?
03:55has also had a tendency to lower the lower rate.
03:57And in this case, can you explain for cases like the Incone?
04:00Well, the limit and the banjo, you know,
04:02the governor's, you know,
04:05the governor was coming to the government
04:07to prepare a the government to come to the government
04:10and to move forward to the government
04:11to establish that policy.
04:13Because we're going to put it,
04:16we're going to put it.
04:18Well, let's say,
04:19is it probable that this tendency
04:22change in these months, let's say right now, the 23rd of March,
04:26when it says that there will be an announcement important in Havana,
04:29could you help to change the tendency
04:31on the perspective that have the Colombian in front of the war?
04:35The President said that no one of the Fed's not going to be able to film an agreement
04:40but I think that the 23rd will not be able to film an agreement,
04:46I think that we are going to be able to make it a little more.
04:48I think that all the actors have been said.
04:49But I'm convinced that when it comes to his firm,
04:54the tendency to favor the President,
04:58it will be much more.
05:00But the expectation is that the 23rd will have an announcement,
05:04not necessarily the date of the firm of an agreement final,
05:06but it will be an announcement that could help a little more
05:09the issue of the President.
05:11Yes, I think that the President and the President
05:16have a very good news for the Colombian,
05:21and the Colombian people are waiting to have the good news for the country.
05:24And we are expecting that is a good news for the next week.
05:34And, let's say, that the 23rd of March could help in the issue of the Reflexion of the Acuerdos, because
05:42the President insisted a lot in that it is not a obligation to submit a vote in the Havana, but
05:49that it does not make a legitimate vote in the Havana, but that it does not make a legitimate vote
05:52in the agreement of the Acuerdos.
05:53But, there is also a question about the level of approval of the Reflexion of the Acuerdos. Is there a
06:00question about if we vote in favor of the Acuerdos?
06:04Yes, there is a question about the Acuerdos that we are not going to agree with the President.
06:08What happens is that we are going to approve the Acuerdos.
06:13And I believe that the Colombian is going to be very well.
06:16We are going to approve the Acuerdos and through the Rural linh so far as possible.
06:20We are going to approve it.
06:23And, for example, I believe that we have an application of the Acuerdos that are the first one of the
06:25Acuerdos, the Acuerdos that do not let us know.
06:29We can do that in the Acuerdos making a state of the Acuerdos that do not let us go.
06:40It's not a specific scenario, but I don't think the sector, the sector, the political, the cultural, the educational, they
06:51have to look at it.
06:52However, there are political sectors and various sectors of society that have been in the campaign in the territories,
07:00and the countries find the prerequisites, to say it like, that the country, in terms of the peace, is very
07:08polarized and that it is not clear the if the prerequisites are in favor of the prerequisites.
07:14I think the prerequisites are so clear that the 50.
07:17You can also talk about the government's government, but you have to leave more than 50 of the country, but
07:22it seems like,
07:24and I think that there is a political decision, political decision, electoral system,
07:31and forces of the opposition that does not want that a political party,
07:37or a political party that doesn't go well.
07:40I'm convinced that the president of the Uribe and the president of the Uribe
07:43has a political party to have a party, and they have a lot of reparations
07:48and they say, how is it going to be a party?
07:49So I have a lot of discussion, I have a lot of discussion, I have a lot of discussion.
07:55That is a lot of discussion, one of the first discussions is that I have seen.
08:02And I think that the government will tend to be a lot of discussion.
08:09So, as well as there are campaigns in favor of the No, there are campaigns, obviously, for the government.
08:16What would be the success of a campaign in that sense, impulsed from the state,
08:22in favor of the CID and the peace agreements in the region?
08:26Yes, there are more than a campaign in the government,
08:29a campaign must be centered in what a great community, a great community,
08:38the Colombian people are looking for and is there in a conflict over 50 years?
08:43In which it was not working? In which we could not do the border?
08:47In which we had a many times in which we could take over the war?
08:52and that is going to work for money or for future politics.
08:57I think that the simple fact of thinking about the future in peace,
09:03in which people will have problems and in which country will improve
09:07much more than a level of international law,
09:10I think I will accept it.
09:12And I think that it is going to be better for the government to defend itself.
09:17We are going to talk a little bit about the results of Gallup.
09:24In that survey, the institutions are incorporated,
09:28especially the police, for example.
09:31How can you improve that image that is currently so high
09:36on the account of the scandals in the last few months?
09:38I think that we can't do it.
09:42But it is good and it is bad.
09:43It is good and it is bad.
09:45I think that there are a lot of people who have a lot of people who have been involved.
09:48There are good and good policemen, there are no people who have been involved.
09:52I think that the institution has made a change in the past 10 years.
09:57I think that the path in general was a good moment for the police.
10:02I think that the scandal of the supposed community of the NIO
10:07I think that the state has caused very much anger in the institution,
10:11but the organization that the police have from here in the day,
10:13has the contact with the people of the NIO,
10:15and that they have to do what they do,
10:17and it is a good moment,
10:17not changing the act of management of the NIO.
10:21How do we survive?
10:22How do we change this relationship with the police and the NIO?
10:24because there is where the people are not going to be able to do it,
10:26but they are not going to be able to do it.
10:29I think that in the case of the police,
10:33there is a long term between the good and the bad ones.
10:39There are institutions well evaluated,
10:42and there are institutions well evaluated,
10:45and this is the case that it shows that
10:47the polonians are still very critical and very optimistic
10:51that we have to deal with the police,
10:52and that is a lot of people,
10:56and they are not going to be able to deal with the people
10:56and the institutions.
10:59That is the contact that you have in the police,
11:03in this case, with the citizens,
11:06is very difficult to see
11:07because the citizens also have a very bad image
11:11not only of the police,
11:13but of the citizens,
11:13but of the members of the police.
11:15How can you achieve that?
11:17Yes,
11:19what we need to do with the police?
11:21What we need to do is
11:23with a positive attitude of the institution
11:28which is for the people's citizens,
11:30it is for the benefit of the citizens.
11:35If no one has a nice relationship between the police and the citizens,
11:40and even though they are not going to be able to do it,
11:42it is not going to be like it.
11:44Todo el tema del proceso de paz, de los escándalos, de la policía, de las instituciones, digamos,
11:50ha tenido una gran relevancia y un gran protagonismo en el papel de las redes sociales.
11:55¿Cómo ha cambiado el tema de la tecnología, de la existencia de las redes,
11:59las dinámicas políticas en Colombia?
12:03Total. ¿Sabes cuántos?
12:07Las visitas hubo el video de Vicky Dávila con el Senado de Ferro, en su primera hora,
12:15donde tuvo más de 500.000 visitas.
12:19Las redes sociales modificaron la forma de hacer política.
12:22Las redes sociales cambiaron la forma de ver el país, de vivir en el país,
12:27no solamente la política.
12:29Como ya estaba muy desfechado y le quedó muy difícil, pero era en el FED.
12:33Es que creo que es un argumento muy importante que hay que tener en cuenta que no hay gente.
12:38Para ser política, para guardar, para vivir.
12:41¿Cómo se podría tener en cuenta la estrategia para gobernar?
12:44A través de las redes sociales.
12:46No, no es que las redes sociales se vuelven a un medio o más.
12:50Estamos en el espectador, y el espectador tiene un medio que impreza.
12:54Hoy el espectador ya es un medio que impreza.
12:56Tiene todo esto, y esas son las redes sociales para comunicarse.
12:59Las redes sociales son un medio.
13:00Que hay que aprovechar.
13:02Por la inmediatez, por la civilización, por la cercanía.
13:10Yo creo que en las elecciones de octubre hicieron posible algunas victorias en diciembre de 16.
13:17En el caso del alcalde Medellín.
13:22Es una calle que se va a romper todo el punto de referencia y en todo el momento.
13:28Usted ha trabajado, como haces el político, en varias campañas.
13:32Y en Colombia, desde ya que siempre nos anticipamos a todo.
13:36Y desde ya se está hablando de la campaña presidencial de 2018.
13:40¿Cuál, digamos, esa campaña va a estar marcada por todo el tema del posacuerdo, por decirlo así?
13:46¿Cuál va a ser ese factor determinante en lo que se viene políticamente para con las próximas elecciones?
13:53En el momento, el que entienda a la comunidad, va a ganar.
13:57El que entienda que esto no es media.
14:00Mire, yo, eh, no respeto ni no creo que presidencialmente.
14:04Lo he dicho muy bien cuando me presidencialmente.
14:06Pero cuando entró a Andrés, entró a la pelea.
14:09Y cuando veo que eso era solamente pelea, las cosas se le dicen.
14:13Yo no creo que el país esté en un momento donde hagamos de entender algunas discusiones.
14:20Lo que estamos haciendo del país es sentarse en el lugar y buscar soluciones.
14:25Y, por eso, desde el gobierno de Fajardo ya empezó a recorrer el país.
14:30A escuchar a la gente, a dialogar.
14:33Por eso, eh, al vicepresidente le doy bien las encuestas,
14:37si es el funcionario mejor evaluado del gobierno,
14:40¿por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué?
14:41¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué?
14:43¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué? ¿Por qué?
14:44Yo creo que es un proceso que apenas se está comenzando.
14:48Todavía no tenemos los actores reales.
14:50Y lo que va a primar es la relación con la comunidad.
14:53La clavación, entonces, va a ser política en las regiones, en los territorios.
14:57Total. Por eso, me diría el presidente, que tiene que hacer dos años para acá,
15:03que activó un ejercicio muy importante que se llama Presidencia de las regiones,
15:06Colombia en las regiones.
15:07Y el otro lado, el otro día tiene que se hizo.
15:10Y entonces, las elecciones que se vienen, es totalmente a jugarse en los regiones.
15:17Entonces, vamos a ver qué factor va a jugar la costa.
15:22La costa, con lo que es realmente tan importante en cuál echar.
15:26¿Qué papel va a jugar Antioquia con Fajardo?
15:29¿Qué papel va a jugar Antioquia con el Partido Liberal?
15:34¿Qué papel va a jugar Antioquia con el Partido Liberal?
15:50¿Qué pasa en esas zonas donde históricamente el Estado ha sido ausente?
15:58¿Cómo hacer la campaña en esas zonas?
16:00¿Cómo llegarle a las comunidades en esas zonas?
16:03Yo creo que, disparándole bolas, el tema de San Andrés, el tema de Chocó,
16:08el tema de la América, porque son muy importantes.
16:12Desgraciadamente, poco no tienen una participación electoral tan importante.
16:19O sea, muchos no son tan fuertes a la hora del regional,
16:23pero creo que en las últimas elecciones estas regiones son muy, muy importantes.
16:29Creo que ahí hay que pagar muy problemas a la elección del 28.
16:35Bueno, Luis Dutti, muchísimas gracias a su compañero. Soy en El Espectador.
16:39Muchas gracias.
16:41A ustedes, muchas gracias por estar con nosotros y nos veremos en una próxima oportunidad.
16:59Gracias.
17:00Gracias.
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