00:00What are we likely to see in these new proposals from Iran?
00:04Because to me, Iran and the US are maximalist at the moment
00:09and there's no sort of meeting point.
00:12Yeah, I think, Leanne, there'll be a tactical shift.
00:15I don't think we're going to see full concessions from either side, actually.
00:18While Basarachi is talking about the previous US demands,
00:20he said they were too excessive.
00:22So he's saying things like the full nuclear rollback,
00:25like the timeline on that, the broader regional conditions,
00:28they're all apparently too excessive.
00:30So Iran has consistently pushed back on those things in the past as well.
00:34So now we're going to see new proposals.
00:36And I think they're likely to be incremental.
00:39I think we'll see things like the phase reopening of the Strait of Hormones.
00:41I think that's inevitable.
00:43Delaying parts of the nuclear agreement,
00:45but not a we are never going to enrich uranium again.
00:48I think they're not going to scrap it.
00:49And I think the US is going to have to find the middle ground
00:51where they are satisfied that for the Trump administration
00:53is better than the 2015 Obama deal,
00:55but it's not going to be a full seizure or a full stop to this nuclear enrichment.
01:03So I think there's going to be limited compliance
01:04in exchange for sanction reliefs with Iran,
01:07which have been there for many, many years now.
01:10And I think the Hormones is the key.
01:13What we're seeing this week as well,
01:14Brent crude sitting at $107 a barrel.
01:16So the markets are clearly reacting to the uncertainty
01:19that we've been all experiencing for the last month,
01:21six weeks at this stage now.
01:22So the world in itself needs stability.
01:25So the US is coming to the table,
01:28not tail between its legs,
01:29but there's certainly a field for both sides.
01:31There needs to be some concessions made.
01:33Could they meet in the middle?
01:34I mean, it's possible.
01:35It will be a partial deal if they do.
01:36It won't be a full resolution.
01:38So again, with this, you'll see de-escalation.
01:40It won't be peace,
01:41but it will be a simmer where things just kind of,
01:44you know, pivot out a little bit for a while.
01:46And that's what I think we're going to see.
01:48What I do find fascinating is Russia
01:50stepping in and saying,
01:51don't worry, we'll do everything, we'll help.
01:53Like Moscow is trying to position itself in this,
01:55as a power broker here,
01:56I don't know if it can really deliver a deal.
01:59It kind of feels to me,
02:00Russia as a peace broker is like saying,
02:02right, we're going to bring an arsonist in.
02:03He's going to run the fire brigade.
02:04You admire the confidence,
02:06but you're thinking,
02:06I don't think I'm totally reassured
02:08how this is going to go down.
02:09So I am concerned about that.
02:11But I do think that there might be
02:14certain techniques or tactics
02:15that are at play here as well to think,
02:17right, is there a reason behind this?
02:18Because we do know, as you said,
02:20that Russia could stand to benefit
02:21from obtaining 60% enriched uranium
02:24from Iran if that becomes part of the deal.
02:26So I can see why they would be involved.
02:28But again, I'm not sure.
02:30They've shown up as a referee wearing a jersey
02:31and I'm not sure which team
02:32they're going to play for just yet.
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