00:00Let's go to Alex Hogan who is live in Washington with the very latest on negotiations with Iran as that
00:06ceasefire is set to expire eminently. Hey Alex.
00:10Hi Carly and Todd. So diplomatic efforts are underway but they're in doubt as to whether these peace talks will
00:15even take place today.
00:16Again today VP Wenz, Vice President J.D. Wenz set to leave for Pakistan again today.
00:23Iranian state media this morning saying that no delegation from Iran has visited Pakistan and it comes after what we've
00:30seen in the last several days. Iran saying that they might not even show up. Still right now preparations are
00:36underway for these high stakes new rounds of talks which are set to take place.
00:42Uncertainty around whether Iran will negotiate or not.
00:46In Islamabad ahead of the arrival of all of these different delegates and U.S. Vice President J.D. Wenz
00:51is set to leave the American delegation.
00:55Peace talks round two today. One set to leave for Pakistan to meet with Iran.
00:59Speaker Speaker Mohamed Bagdir Khaliba fled the Iranian side but now he's posted this on X writing Trump by imposing
01:08a siege and violating the ceasefire seeks to turn this negotiating table into his own imagination into a table of
01:15surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.
01:18This is a big thing. Okay. Learn it. Learn it. Big thing.
01:21Do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. No.
01:24In the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.
01:28This is Iranian officially saying Iran is saying new cards.
01:33It has been a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz.
01:36U.S. forces continue to monitor their blockade in the critical waterway.
01:41Ceasefire between U.S. and Iran expires tomorrow.
01:45Dude.
01:46Command releasing these new photos.
01:48And President Donald Trump in a Bloomberg interview underscored this looming expiration date of the current ceasefire, time stamping it
01:55as Wednesday evening Eastern Time.
01:57So that could give a little more time for negotiations.
01:59The President also called it highly unlikely that he would extend the temporary deal if a new agreement is not
02:04reached.
02:04Yes.
02:05The ceasefire is not to be extended now.
02:07There is a new ceasefire that is reached this week, Carleen Todd, that raises more questions.
02:10How would it be enforced?
02:12And again, would it hold?
02:13Yep.
02:14A whole lot of questions on the table this morning.
02:15All right.
02:15Live for us in Washington, Alex.
02:17Thank you, Alex.
02:17Let's make your retired Navy SEAL.
02:18Mike Surrell to answer some of those.
02:19Mike, great to see you this morning.
02:20It is shaping up to be a critical day.
02:22As the ceasefire is set to expire, both sides are threatening further military action.
02:25And you have the Vice President heading to Pakistan for another round of negotiations.
02:29Where do you view where all of this is going at the end of the day today?
02:31Yes, Mike.
02:32Please, Mike.
02:33Several options, but the eyes of the world will be on Islamabad today.
02:36So, you know, I think they're...
02:38Well, Mike, your wedding picture is very good behind.
02:42Oh, I like it.
02:42There's a high probability that nothing's going to come out of these peace talks.
02:46One, you know, Trump and J.D. Vance should be going in with full compliance of our...
02:50He's Mike Surrell, a retired Navy SEAL officer.
02:53...terms is the overall goal.
02:55But there's a few things.
02:56One, Iran is saying they won't negotiate under coercion.
02:58No.
02:58Carly, that's the sound of leverage working.
03:00You know, they say that they've got a new set of cards that they're going to unleash.
03:03They're probably, you know, referring to a strongly worded essay to the UN, which we highly encourage.
03:07But what's extremely troubling is the ascension of Ahmed Vahidi, a former...
03:12Ahmed Vahidi is the new thing, you understand?
03:15A fanatical hardliner.
03:16I mean, this is the guy who orchestrated and led the Quds Force prior to Soleimani.
03:20And that's disturbing because he was the architect of Iran's global terror operations,
03:23has the blood of Americans on his hands with several bombings.
03:25And that is a sign that the hardliners are consolidating power over the diplomats within Iran
03:29and not great stepping into these negotiations because they will choose force over any deal.
03:33Yeah, this is the thing.
03:35Iran's ceasefire deal expires in less than 48 hours and they have new cards on them.
03:41New cards on table?
03:42Yeah, they are powerful now.
03:43They are stronger.
03:44It's considered radical even within the regime's hardline elite and could move Iran towards peace
03:48or further military action.
03:49And when it comes to that, Iran feels like they have leverage regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
03:53Is that true?
03:55This is...
03:55You gotta understand, for a fanatical of this type, peace is not within their vernacular.
03:59So it is terror.
04:00He is the architect of death to America and death to Israel.
04:02But it does show that he is getting more influence potentially than Galibov and, you know,
04:06Khomeini as well.
04:07Yeah, this is what they have, you know, propaganda.
04:10Death to America, death to Israel.
04:13This is what they call it.
04:14Okay.
04:15So under his control, I don't think they're going in with any good faith.
04:18No.
04:18As Iran usually does not.
04:20To come to...
04:20The new controller, yes.
04:22Mike Sarrail is the podcast host of Everyday Warrior and there is some...
04:27A reasonable deal.
04:28And listening to the rhetoric of this hardline faction that they believe enrichment is a regime
04:33right.
04:33Yes.
04:34The uranium enrichment and being able to made a nuclear weapon is the right of regime,
04:41right of a country and they are not...
04:43That shows that they're not willing to meet the zero enrichment.
04:46And I'll say this.
04:46Be skeptical when you hear words like temporary or moderated.
04:50Those lead to phased operations of diminishing their uranium enrichment.
04:54But we know that Iran has a history...
04:56This has Iran's nuclear facilities, nuclear sites, uranium mines, research reactor and
05:01military sites.
05:02...of reading any agreements like it's, you know, optional fine print and they've never
05:06negotiated or held true on any deal or agreements in good faith.
05:09Yeah.
05:09And, you know, the other major element of this is the already enriched uranium that Iran has.
05:12And last week, President Trump said that they would hand it over and then Iran said,
05:16no, we will not.
05:16Here is General David Petraeus on what it would look like to retrieve that enriched uranium
05:20ourselves.
05:22We're not really sure where these canisters are of this thousand pounds.
05:25This is General David Petros, former U.S.
05:29CENTCOM commander.
05:30Yep.
05:30...of 60% enriched uranium, which rightly was noted is one turn of the enrichment process
05:34below that of weapons grade.
05:35But they're going to have to excavate very, very substantially.
05:37And by the way, that's what makes the idea of a forced ground operation very, very challenging.
05:42This would be a very, very tall order.
05:43It would be exceed risky.
05:44And the casualties could potentially be quite substantial.
05:47Now, what do you think about that as a realistic possibility?
05:49This can be.
05:50I think it may be.
05:50This can be one of the possibilities.
05:52They really do this operation to get uranium out of Iran's hands.
05:58We really need that.
05:59The only options.
06:00Can we trust Iran to turn over the uranium?
06:02No, no.
06:03Can we take them at their word that they'll dispose of it?
06:05No.
06:05No.
06:05So, you know, our combat operations risky.
06:07Yes.
06:07They're inherently risky.
06:08However, with our military force and our capability, they are possible.
06:11What makes us know that it becomes a combat operation while doing...
06:14America great.
06:15...construction in a sense.
06:16And that requires a defensive perimeter.
06:17I'm never fearful or overly fearful of our troops going in.
06:20It's always when you take a defensive posture and any military professional will tell you...
06:23This is happening.
06:24This military operation, this war with Iran is inevitable.
06:30Inevitable.
06:31...that you expose your people to risk.
06:32It's hard to hold static ground.
06:33Very hard.
06:34It is possible and most likely the only viable way to ensure that we get our hands on the uranium,
06:38we account for it and then we ultimately dispose of it or take custody of it.
06:41And taking in all that you said collectively with Ahmad Bahini being the head of the IRGC now
06:45and being an extreme hardliner, Iran having, you know, some sway over...
06:49The new head of IRGC is an extreme liner.
06:52And what we do when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz and not willing to give up their nuclear
06:55ambitions.
06:56I mean, where do you think things are going from here when these negotiations with this attempt at diplomacy is
07:00over?
07:01Yeah, well, I'll tell you where they should not go.
07:02And this is the Iran playbook, is they're trying to reset the clock.
07:04More time.
07:05Iran elevates hardliner as head of IRGC and this is not going anywhere.
07:12This is the main point.
07:13More time, more time.
07:14And President Trump knows that and he's not willing to give it.
07:15So if these negotiations don't come to some reasonable, verifiable, durable terms,
07:21then I believe we will see strikes again.
07:23New, new head of IRGC.
07:25On Wednesday night.
07:26The blockade will continue because that is crushing them financially.
07:28And we have reported reporting that Peshkin is at a near breakdown because he understands what every business leader understands.
07:32You can't run a company or you can't run a regime without oxygen.
07:34Yes, without oxygen, you know what we are referring as oxygen in this situation, right?
07:40As is your oxygen.
07:40But when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, you know, we saw Iranian 10-point plan.
07:44They still want control of the Strait of Hormuz.
07:46Iran has no money left.
07:48180% their inflation has gone high.
07:51They have no money to pay their government supply.
07:53They have no money to pay their military troops and nothing they have.
07:57That shows their lack of reality in this situation that they have no leverage.
08:00They lose everything.
08:02They lost everything.
08:03They lost everything.
08:04Diplomacy today and then we'll see where it all goes from here.
08:06Retired Navy SEAL, Mike Cirelli, thank you so much for joining us this morning.
08:07We appreciate it.
08:07Thank you, man.
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