00:00We don't know yet, to be honest. It's why we at the ECB published three weeks ago three different scenarios,
00:07and this is exactly what the IMF did here this week.
00:11And let me stress that we cannot bet only on the most favorable scenario, so-called reference scenario for the
00:18IMF.
00:18We must be prepared for each of these scenarios because there is unprecedented uncertainty, even unknown.
00:27It could be prolonged. There could be secondary effects, not only on energy, but also on some other products.
00:34So in our case, we expect higher inflation and we expect lower growth.
00:41In each of these scenarios, the URA, as well as the French economy, would avoid recession, but clearly this is
00:49a negative supply.
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