00:00We are revisiting as well our growth forecast and our inflation forecast.
00:06We have published that, as you know, and we have revised inflation to 2.6 percent, growth to 0.9.
00:13And then the evolution is going to be a factor of how long, how deep, how propagated the crisis is.
00:23And we central bankers are left with defining the baseline, which is based on the most accurate information we have,
00:34what we think will happen.
00:37And because this information that we have is constantly changing and we have a high degree of unpredictability and uncertainty,
00:44we have to work on scenarios, factoring in how high oil and gas and all 6NA and derivatives of those
00:56products will be,
00:57how long it will last and how fast the situation will be recovered.
01:02And we keep looking at current data as they come in.
01:06And thanks to Bloomberg, for instance, this comes in on a very regular basis.
01:11And we try to figure out where we are relative to the baseline and where we are relative to the
01:17various scenarios that we have laid out.
01:19And I think you laid it out as three scenarios, baseline, adverse and severe.
01:24I would call the baseline the baseline and the other two, the scenarios.
01:27The scenarios. So where are we now?
01:32We are in between the baseline and the adverse.
01:36So we have baseline, adverse, severe.
01:39So currently, but, you know, when I say currently, you have to look at, you know, the price of the
01:45burial,
01:45the price of the various categories of fuel, the price of futures and all of that applied to gas as
01:53well
01:53to determine where we are exactly relative to these two.
01:57But we are somewhere, I think, in between the baseline and the adverse scenario.
02:03So how quickly can can that change from baseline to scenarios?
02:06It changes every day.
02:08So the difficulty of us central bankers is that we need to take a medium term view.
02:14This is how we define our target.
02:16You know, this price stability that defines our mandate is done by reference to the medium term results.
02:25And at the same time, facts, data, number of ships blocked here, volume of oil extracted varies almost on a
02:34daily basis.
02:35So we need to do this somehow schizophrenic exercise of keeping our eyes on the medium term
02:41and making sure that we deliver on our mandate, but at the same time checking the data almost daily.
02:47We need to do this somehow.
02:47We need to do this somehow.
02:47We need to do this somehow.
02:47We need to do this somehow.
02:47We need to do this somehow.
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