00:00uh
00:18see rather than predicting the price of oil let's understand the other side of the oil
00:27so as a result we feel oil shocks and the oil shock is very dangerous i don't know whether you've
00:37seen
00:37our forex reserves our forex reserves january the high was made of 728 billion dollars and the last
00:48number was 688 billion so almost 40 billion has got eroded
00:53in forex reserve for india in last 40-50 days so basically we are losing our forex
00:59reserve very quickly when the oil shocks come into play and india's oil basket
01:13has got to look at the brand and this one
01:16So you have to look at differently
01:27So I cannot predict
01:32Maybe next month I can tell you exactly
01:34So what I am trying to tell you is
01:39This impact is very important
01:42For the investors
01:46At every 30% rise in the basket price
01:50Inflation goes up by 100 basis point
01:52And this price almost 60-70%
01:55Bڑھt چکا ہے last 3 meney کے اندر میں
01:57ठीक है?
01:58इसका मतलब जो हमारा inflation है
02:00वो 200 basis point बढ़ने वाला है
02:02Point number one
02:04इसका impact सिर्फ oil पे नहीं रहता
02:07पूरे logistics और transport और supply chain management पे आ जाता है
02:10उसके बाद इसका जो सबसे बड़ा impact आता है
02:41वो fertilizer और food inflation पे आता है
02:43See these two important factors
02:45तो ये अगर 300 basis point के आसपास जम गए
02:48India को बहुत बड़ा current account deficit face करना पड़ेगा
02:52और ये same situation 2012-13 में हुई थी
02:55If you recall
02:57और उसमें Congress government चले गई थी
02:59So inflation का जो अब जब अगली head आगे आता है
03:03So it can take away the entire government along with it
03:07So this is what I would like the investors और आम आदमी जो इसको देख रहे है
03:12To understand that हम लोग governments के बारे में बहुत freely discuss करते है
03:17हमारी beliefs के वज़े से, हमारे thoughts के वज़े से
03:20जातपात को लेके बहुत सारी चीजे है
03:22लेकिन अगर आपको किसी government की governance को rate करना है
03:26ठीके, निश्पक्स होके
03:27ठीके, तो there are four points
03:29ये चार point अगर आपने ठीक से note कर लिए
03:32आपका mind unbiased हो जाएगा
03:34and you will be able to get answers very easily
03:36तो पहला point क्या है अगर आप किसी government को
03:39या उसकी governance को देखना चाहते है
03:41Most important job of a government is
03:43inflation control and inflation management
03:45ये सबसे important चीज है
03:47उनका काम है demand supply को manage करना
03:49that is why they are government
03:50सबसे important चीज
03:52second, fiscal deficit
03:54fiscal prudence manage करना उनका काम है
03:57इसलिए वो government में है
03:58ये काम दूसरा कोई नहीं कर सकता
04:00so these are two important pillars
04:01the third important pillar is innovation and excellence
04:05in what area?
04:07in the area of science
04:09इसको STEAM कहते है
04:10S-T-E-A-M कहते है
04:12science, sustainability, technology
04:17engineering, arts
04:18medicine and mathematics
04:20तो जब innovation और excellence
04:23STEAM में होता है
04:25तब देश आगे जाता है
04:26and it is a very important pillar of
04:28rating for a government's progress
04:30और चौथा और आखरी जो
04:32pillar है इसका
04:34उसको कहते हैं
04:35self-reliance and inclusivity
04:38अब ये words जब हम पहले पोलते थे
04:40लोग जल्दी समझ नहीं पाते थे
04:42लेकिन current government इसको
04:44बहुत easy कर दिया
04:45inclusivity को ये कहते हैं
04:46सबका साथ, सबका विकास
04:48और self-reliance का मतलब होता है
04:50आत्म निर्भर
04:51तो ये चार important pillar है
04:54to see how governments can be rated
04:57निश्पक्स होकर
04:58तो अब मुझे लगता है कि
05:00moody government का सबसे बड़ा test
05:02one and two के अंदर में
05:04points में आने वाला है
05:05जहां उनको inflation manage करना है
05:08और physical deficit manage करना है
05:10लेकिन महंगाई की जहां तक बात है
05:12अगर मैं इससे पहले
05:14रूस युक्रेन युद्ध जब भड़का था
05:16उस समय से तुलना करूं
05:17उसके बाद global scale पर
05:21महंगाई बहुत ज्यादा बढ़ गई थी
05:22हमने देखा था अमेरिका में
05:23चार दर्श्मों की सबसे उची महंगाई आ गई
05:25यूके में आ गई पूरे यूरोप में रही
05:29भारत थोड़ा कम
05:32उसके टोफाव में रहा
05:34बेशक हमें भी उसका असर जहिलना
05:37तो पढ़ा ही लेकिन तुलनात्मक रूप से कम इस बार आप क्या देख रहे हैं क्योंकि इस बार कहानी थोड़ी
05:44से अलग है
05:44क्रूड पर हम बहुत ज्यादा निजबर हैं आयात पे और वो हमारे सारे गणित को बिगाड़ सकता है
05:52you know, good governance comes into play
05:58and
05:58India's intellectuals are
06:01who understand this
06:02they will have to come together
06:04and come up with a correct policy
06:07to attend it
06:07sudden shock
06:09if the economy is a sudden shock
06:12if the supply chain is
06:14if the energy
06:15dependency
06:18so definitely it will have a very large impact
06:21on masses
06:31so inflation is going to be the biggest challenge
06:34for India going forward
06:35for next 9 months
06:37now, how many periods
06:39are going to be the first time
06:41is different from Ukraine
06:43Ukraine and Russia
06:45which conflict was almost 4 years
06:47cross-cut
06:48but the impact is limited
06:50because we have our supply
06:51now, we have two things
06:54we have to use
06:55supply disrupts
06:57now, how much impact
07:00let's understand the impact
07:01first, how much crude consume
07:29we will lose somewhere close to 70 to 80 billion dollar for the year
07:33and if the company is going to be the first time
07:35and if the company is going to be the first time
07:36almost 100 billion dollar
07:40we have to manage inflation
07:43now we have to discuss
07:46major news channel
07:48it is not about price
07:51price
07:52price
07:53100 billion dollar shock
07:55arrangement
07:58supply
07:59if supply
08:02disrupt
08:02problem
08:04why
08:04if we have to ensure that
08:11consistent supply
08:13shock
08:14if we have to vibrations
08:15we have to ensure that
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