00:00Let's start with Covid. Looking at this chart, it seems that the kind of
00:07The same kind of consolidation we saw in 2021 is back, but a little more.
00:17is only visible and or if we
00:22that it's so bad that I'm trying to come to the possibility that what this
00:33We took from around 26,000
00:36After doing this it saw gravitation around 22,800 and 22,750, almost similar gravitation once again
00:44It is replicating, it is repeating, can this form a kind of rectangular pattern in future
00:52And what that means is much farther than 21,750.
00:57Poor is probably not the bottom for us, at all, the valing point. Let us understand why this is so, which is our
01:08EPS growth could have been 15-18%, but I have now reduced it to 13%.
01:14If it becomes 10% then if it has to be reduced further then this movement which is 28
01:22It could have been in the range of 22,000 to 30,000. If the EPS growth is not that much, then it will be a
01:28Understand that the market may remain in the range of 22,000 to 26,000 for 6 months or so.
01:35After that, recovery is given in 6 months, that is, till September-October, this is the possibility, why did I say that?
01:45This is 2000-22-23 and
01:52In terms of valuation, it has gone up even more, so Nifty has reached 22,000 and not 22,000.
02:00Yes, but that could be the bottom end of valuation. Now what would be the problem if GDP data is not available here?
02:08We will come in quarters in the future and if this happens anywhere
02:216.75 6.57 Taking this range, it is discounting and swapping its valuation if 6.5
02:29If the GDP forecast of even 100% starts getting worse than that, then the market will also factor in some other downside bias.
02:37This correction is at this junction
02:51A lot will depend on future data as to whether Nifty will rise even 10% from 22,000.
02:58Only data can tell if it should go down.
03:05Well, since we saw retracement earlier from around 21,750, then there is no point in looking at retracement now.
03:14If it is no longer there then we will have to go back from here, then we will see its retracement from June 2022.
03:21Get started or go straight to
03:26One should look at it from the perspective of the world but also see that the market has not given any returns for the last two years.
03:33If we have given it then we will have to see with time and what happens in time correction that this is what we are feeling
03:42Now the correction related to Fovid should go away.
03:55So I think we should not do that much. I have tried to study two patterns.
04:03One which is ours where our rally started from June 2022
04:09One leg is that we have two legs to study, one leg since Covid.
04:14To do our study which started with Covid and ended with the correction in July or July 2022
04:24make a leg then
04:29Then the whole thing started in June 2022, I saw June 2022 and then the second leg started from there.
04:36So I feel that we should not leave that leg also, now read this leg.
04:44How is it, then you should get a full retrace done from June 2022.
04:56should come around 20,000 then how much division can be taken from 22,000 and tail in the latter
05:04If you assume that the market retraces 38% and moves up for the day
05:10Theoretically, it should not be considered as a weak market. Very long rice should be considered as a correction.
05:18And 38% correction strength is indicated in the market, so I went straight to 19,000 and then
05:26I don't want to go because I am 19,000. The company itself says that 62% of the retracement will be done from June 2022.
05:35There will be a correction and the retrace from the Covid low will retrace to 19,000, so one
05:42There is a situation prevailing in the market, I think that if the earnings become so bad then
05:5019,000 is a number, it will also reach
06:01You will not get it next year, if this happens then talk about 19,000, 18,000, whatever number you want to say.
06:08But if the damage is gone within 10-15 days and things can be rebuilt
06:14begins
06:16So the 38% retracement was around 22,000, it's a good correction, all the heat wave has passed.
06:24After this, even if it goes back to 26,000, the market will not be as heavy as it was before.
06:29Vikas, you have had correction and consolidation for more than two years, very long time.
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