00:00What I would say next week is that all roads go into higher inflation, slower growth.
00:09This shock we know is a negative supply shock.
00:14It means it pushes prices up and whether that would go to a territory that requires central banks to intervene
00:24would really depend on how long it goes. A shorter duration, relatively mild impact, possible for central banks to look
00:35through that.
00:37A longer duration, inflation starts flashing red signs, then central banks have to step in.
00:44How much we were going to upgrade? Not by much. We were looking at 0.1% lift of our
00:51growth projections.
00:53And now we are going to be talking about different scenarios.
00:58We will present three scenarios, depending again on these factors.
01:03And I want to stress something very important.
01:06This crisis is global, but it is very asymmetric.
01:11If you are in the zone of hostilities, that hits you the most.
01:16If you are an oil importer, far away, you can't get even the quantities you need, that hits you a
01:26lot.
01:26If you are an exporter, like the United States, you are in a much more protected position.
01:33Poor countries, all importers, are in a very tough spot.
01:39The world as a whole has a problem with fiscal space.
01:45We have been borrowing, that has gone up, up, that service costs up, up.
01:51And now we are faced with another shock with very little space to act upon it.
01:57So I think we are going to go back.
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