- 7 hours ago
According to the numbers, Aston Villa are well on their way to a shock relegation. But, according to the table, they might actually be Arsenal's best challengers for the title. Adam Clery examines how Unai Emery's team are defying every metric in the Premier League to go on a brilliant winning run, and why their newfound love of long-range goals might be a brilliant long-term fix.
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00:00Right, hello everybody and welcome to the, if I may, award-winning Adam Cleary football channel
00:05and it is time to give Aston Villa their flowers.
00:09Even though, if every single team in the Premier League was doing what they are currently doing,
00:15then I and an entire generation of football dweebs who grew up playing too much football manager
00:21would be out of a job.
00:24They had a garbage summer, which we'll have a look at.
00:26They started the season with zero wins and one goal in five games
00:30and now somehow sit one point behind Man City in third
00:34and have won eight of their last nine Premier League games.
00:39That puts them over that spell in better form than Arsenal.
00:44And all of that, despite the fact that the numbers,
00:46which bear in mind I've based this entire YouTube channel around,
00:50saying that they should be in the relegation zone,
00:54could quite possibly be getting relegated,
00:57should be lower than wolves.
01:00So how does that happen then?
01:02Which coven of milky-eyed forsaken witches
01:04has Unai Emery forged a blood pact with
01:07and why does this seemingly innocuous moment versus Brighton
01:11tell us that it might be a very deliberate,
01:14very clever thing for him to have done?
01:16All of that and more...
01:19Um, now.
01:23All right, so very simple formula for today's video.
01:26First of all, we're going to show you
01:27why Aston Villa should really be in a relegation scrap this season
01:32and then we're going to show you
01:34why they are laughing in the face
01:36of underlying numbers and statistical indicators.
01:40So quite predictably,
01:41they went and ruined this for me at Brighton
01:43by scoring three of their four goals
01:45from a combined distance of about one yard.
01:49But if we just jump back in time to Wednesday,
01:52here is David Jones very flamboyantly doing my job for me.
01:56And the numbers there that he is pointing at
01:58are slash were absolutely staggering.
02:02Bottom of the league for shot conversion inside the box
02:04and the XG of their shots
02:06and as good as bottom for XG as a whole,
02:09which I know probably feels like a very silly thing
02:12to be paying any attention to in this video in particular,
02:15but I will, I promise, show you why that matters.
02:19Meanwhile, as you can see,
02:20they are top of the league four
02:21and this is obviously the technical term,
02:24uh, fucking bangers.
02:25Rifling in 15% of all their long range shots,
02:29which for context,
02:30if nobody's pointed this out to you,
02:31the average Premier League conversion rate
02:34for shots from outside the box
02:35is 3.7%.
02:38So 15% is nuttier than your Christmas Panettone.
02:45Wait.
02:46Panettone.
02:47Panettone has nuts in it, doesn't it?
02:49Should have checked that, really.
02:51What is in a Panettone?
02:55Oh, no nuts.
02:57No nuts in a Panettone,
02:58just, uh, raisins, apparently.
02:59So, ignore me.
03:01All of this had combined to give them a firmly mired
03:04in the bottom half of the table 16 goals
03:06and when you combine that
03:07with the underlying defensive number data,
03:10like how many goals should they be scoring,
03:12how many goals should they be conceding,
03:14what points should that be giving them,
03:16they came out as, believe it or not,
03:1919th in the table,
03:21below Wolves.
03:23And just, Aston Villa fans,
03:24I know you'll be taking no pleasure whatsoever
03:27from either, A, the fact that Wolves are enjoying
03:30the biggest statistical underperformance this season
03:33or that you beat them 1-0
03:36in a game that sort of defied statistical explanation.
03:39Villa shading it on XG
03:40but Wolves having the only clear-cut chance in the match.
03:44That won't bother you at all.
03:46Now, look, as I say,
03:47these numbers have all improved
03:48following the Brighton game.
03:50Like, getting three goals from about as close
03:52as you can physically get them
03:54has bumped them up the XG table
03:56to a slightly better 15th.
03:59And then you look at their differential
04:00which I promise you
04:01is way more effective
04:03for predicting a team's direction of travel
04:06than any other statistic.
04:08It's how everybody clocked
04:09that Tottenham bubble was going to burst.
04:11They're now up to 14th at least on that.
04:14But that is still 11 places in the table
04:17and in reality,
04:18nine or 10 points away
04:19from where they actually are.
04:21So still, more or less,
04:23every single thing you can use
04:24to measure a team's performance
04:26aside from literally the team's performance
04:29should have alarm bells ringing.
04:32The XG per 90 has finally just crept over one
04:36but pretty much all season prior to Brighton
04:38it was floating at around like the 0.8 or 0.9 level.
04:43And I know, I know that's literally one decimal point.
04:45It might sound incredibly silly
04:47but that number, 0.8 or 0.9
04:50almost always gets you relegated.
04:53Literally, last season,
04:55that number would have got you relegated.
04:57The season before, you would have finished bottom.
05:00In fact, and I won't even tell you
05:02how long this took me to research,
05:05six to seven minutes,
05:07the last time 0.9 XG per 90
05:10would have let you stay up in the Premier League,
05:13you've got to go back to Crystal Palace in 2021.
05:16And just before you get really bored of this
05:19and you end up leaving the video, right,
05:20I know a lot of people still roll their eyes
05:23when they hear the term XG.
05:25Jamie Redknapp was literally doing it
05:26on Sky Sports the other night
05:28but this is honestly about as good an indicator
05:31of what is really going on with the team
05:34as anyone has ever come up with.
05:36Yes, it is a bit silly.
05:37Yes, it is incredibly nerdy.
05:39Yes, football games are played on grass,
05:42not Excel spreadsheets.
05:43But it has proved over the years,
05:46if used in the right context,
05:48to be incredibly accurate.
05:49But the question then is,
05:52well, if this stuff is so accurate
05:53at showing the way you're headed,
05:56why are Aston Villa so violently
05:58and hilariously going in completely
06:01the opposite direction?
06:03How can the XG have them in fifth gear
06:05going towards the Skybet
06:06and yet they're doing that scene
06:08from A Bronx Tale
06:09where Charles Palmenciar drives
06:11all the way into town the wrong way?
06:14And I know that's a really weird analogy, right?
06:17But...
06:20Anyway, though,
06:21the answer to both of those questions,
06:22it will not shock you,
06:23has been shots from distance.
06:27Over the last, like, 20 years,
06:29however long they've been collecting
06:30the data like this,
06:31the trend in the Premier League
06:33and everywhere else
06:34has been to shoot from outside the box
06:36less and less and less
06:38and less
06:38because it is a statistically
06:41unreliable way to score goals.
06:43Here's a nice little graph
06:44the BBC published last season.
06:46Back in the day
06:47when everything was good
06:48and fun and nice,
06:50like 15% of shots
06:51were from outside the box
06:53and now,
06:54when everything is bad
06:55and expensive and hollow,
06:57it's around 8%.
06:58That's getting on for a 50% decrease
07:01over 20 years
07:03and,
07:03just to circle back to David Jones
07:05doing a graceful plie here,
07:07prior to Brighton,
07:08Villa were sitting on 56%.
07:12That is,
07:13quite literally,
07:14a 700% increase
07:18on the norm.
07:20Once again,
07:22700%.
07:23And even with them
07:24ruining all my good research
07:26by scoring four
07:27from inside the box
07:28against Brighton,
07:29that still puts them
07:30on 45%
07:32for the season.
07:34And again,
07:35just to put all those numbers
07:36on screen at the same time
07:37so you can take it all in,
07:39right?
07:39Average number of goals
07:41from outside the box,
07:428%.
07:43Aston Villa's goals
07:44from outside the box,
07:4645%,
07:46down from 56%
07:48like three days ago.
07:50And what's remarkable,
07:51though,
07:52is how this is a team-specific
07:53instruction
07:54rather than just
07:55a player-specific instruction.
07:57But usually,
07:58recently,
07:59if a team is getting higher
08:00than average numbers
08:01of goals from outside the box,
08:02is because
08:03they have one player,
08:05usually in the midfield,
08:06who is worth giving that
08:08a go-to.
08:09So they will manufacture
08:10situations
08:11that will leave them
08:12free
08:12in those positions.
08:14Usually,
08:15it's like a second phase
08:16from a set piece
08:17or something.
08:18But Villa
08:19extraordinarily
08:20have had six
08:21different players
08:22score
08:22from outside the box.
08:24There has been
08:24John McGinn,
08:25Matty Cash
08:26has scored two,
08:27Emiliano Buendia,
08:28Morgan Rodgers,
08:30Buba Karkamara,
08:31and Amadou Onana.
08:33And I know,
08:33some of those
08:34are free kicks,
08:35so you can't exactly
08:36manufacture
08:36those situations.
08:38But the very fact
08:38that two of the free kicks
08:40have been scored
08:41by players
08:41you haven't been shooting
08:42from outside the box,
08:44like even the open play
08:45and set play shots
08:46are spread around
08:48a number of different players,
08:50does tell you something.
08:51Tells you it's a team instruction,
08:53tells you they're all
08:53very gifted footballers,
08:55and if an opening appears,
08:56they are told,
08:57have a go.
08:57And the thing is,
08:59you can trace this
09:00all back,
09:00the goals themselves,
09:02the instruction
09:02to even try them,
09:04to the very start
09:05of the season
09:06when Villa could not
09:07buy a goal.
09:08We said then
09:09that the reason
09:09they were struggling
09:10was the result
09:11of teams now
09:12knowing better
09:12than to commit players
09:14into pressuring
09:15the back line
09:15and instead
09:16cut off these passes
09:18into the middle
09:19that allow them
09:20to find the ball
09:21between the lines
09:21and turn.
09:22You can see it
09:23right here against Everton,
09:24this is from the video
09:25we did earlier on
09:26in the season,
09:26there is three
09:27at the back here,
09:28two sitting in front
09:29of them,
09:29but Everton are not
09:30getting suckered in
09:32to putting pressure
09:33on the ball.
09:34They're instead
09:34making absolutely sure
09:36it cannot go
09:37from here to here
09:39and if it does,
09:41the player receiving it
09:42can do nothing
09:43with his back to goal
09:44but send it back
09:46where it came from.
09:47And even then,
09:48when they do manage
09:49to get through teams,
09:50this is not the sort
09:51of verve
09:51or dynamic play
09:52that we've come
09:53to associate
09:54with Villa.
09:55Teams just would
09:56not give them
09:57an opportunity
09:57to stretch the defence
09:59out anymore
09:59and without any
10:00major impactful
10:02first team signings
10:04they'd become
10:04a little bit stale,
10:06a little bit predictable.
10:07Hence,
10:07teams being able
10:08to better restrict
10:09the quality of chances
10:10Villa are having,
10:11double hence
10:12the quality of chances
10:14they're having back then
10:15being the second lowest
10:16in the league,
10:17triple hence
10:18them not scoring a goal
10:20in those opening four games.
10:21But Emery has basically
10:22looked at situations
10:23like this one
10:24and gone,
10:25look,
10:25if we can get
10:26into these positions
10:27on the edge of the box
10:28right enough
10:29but we're not going
10:30to slice teams open
10:31and make good chances
10:31anymore,
10:32then let's just
10:35hit the thing.
10:36And the Wolves goal
10:36is maybe the best example
10:38of why this is genuinely
10:39a smart call
10:40because look how deep
10:41Wolves are here.
10:43That is about as low
10:45as a low block gets
10:46and teams like Villa
10:47who have good players
10:49who scare the opposition
10:50come up against
10:51situations like this
10:52more often than not.
10:54They've worked it to McGinn
10:55out wide
10:56and his crossing options
10:57are not good.
10:59Like Watkins has found
11:00maybe a little bit of space
11:01but despite committing
11:03bodies forward
11:04Wolves still have them
11:05outnumbered here
11:06five versus three.
11:07So common sense
11:08in that situation
11:08tells you
11:09well let's work it
11:10around the outside
11:11and wait for an opening
11:12so McGinn
11:13finds Kamara.
11:14Now if the instruction
11:15here was
11:16be patient
11:16then let's look
11:17at his options.
11:18He can't go back
11:19to McGinn,
11:19Tielemans can't do
11:21anything with it
11:21as he's marked
11:22and even if he could
11:23throughout a really
11:24delicate pass
11:25between these defenders
11:26all the forwards
11:27have their back to goal
11:28and someone squarely
11:30up their arse.
11:31So all he's got on
11:32really when you look
11:33at that
11:33is Matty Cash
11:35out to the left hand side
11:36and it's a makeable pass
11:37but it would just leave him
11:38in pretty much
11:39the same situation
11:40as McGinn was.
11:41No real crossing option
11:42no ability to get him behind
11:44so in all likelihood
11:45that would just
11:46come back out
11:47and then around
11:48and then a back
11:48and around
11:49and there's that
11:49horseshoe thing
11:50that teams always
11:52find very frustrating
11:53and it's boring
11:54to watch.
11:55So instead
11:56if there is no
11:57good chance
11:58to be had
12:00just take the bad one.
12:02Because teams get
12:02so concerned
12:03with defending the space
12:04inside the box
12:05he's actually got
12:05the room
12:06and the time
12:07to have a pretty
12:08decent go
12:09and
12:10whoosh
12:11whistles in.
12:12Now
12:12here is the thing
12:13right
12:13they've already asked
12:15Unai Emery
12:15about this trend
12:17of them scoring
12:17loads of goals
12:18from outside the box
12:19and he is at pains
12:20to say
12:20it's not something
12:22they want to build
12:23their game around
12:24it's not something
12:24that's going to be
12:25sustainable
12:26in the long run
12:27but weirdly
12:28I think that lack
12:30of sustainability
12:32is what makes it
12:33really clever.
12:34Like it is
12:35absolutely
12:35a short term
12:37solution
12:37and one that
12:38if they rely on it
12:39for too long
12:40will undoubtedly
12:41move them closer
12:42to where the data
12:44says they should be
12:45than where they
12:46are right now.
12:47Ha ha!
12:47But however
12:48short term solution
12:49it may be
12:50but one that I think
12:52will end up
12:53yielding
12:53long term results
12:55because purely
12:55by virtue
12:56of doing this
12:57more often
12:58it is going to
12:58force teams
12:59to change
13:00how they defend
13:02against Aston Villa.
13:04If you know
13:04you're playing a team
13:05who love to shoot
13:06on sight
13:07and more to the point
13:08have proven to be
13:09incredibly good at that
13:10then you will not
13:12simply sit
13:14rigidly
13:15in a block
13:15like this
13:16whenever they've
13:16got possession
13:17in the final third.
13:18You will instruct
13:19your players
13:20to get out
13:21to them
13:21to stop
13:21those opportunities
13:22which in turn
13:23opens up
13:24the spaces
13:25behind them
13:25to potentially
13:26create something.
13:27And obviously
13:28just don't get me wrong
13:29it doesn't guarantee
13:30that anything's
13:31going to happen
13:31you've still
13:32got to be able
13:32to exploit
13:33those spaces
13:34which is
13:34incredibly hard
13:35but simply
13:36by virtue
13:37of shooting
13:38on sight
13:39you should
13:39get more chances
13:41elsewhere.
13:41Case in point
13:42right here
13:43this is against
13:43Brighton
13:44Buendia
13:44breaks through
13:45this challenge
13:46and gets to
13:46within about
13:47what we say
13:48in there
13:4925 yards
13:50I think
13:50Van Hecker
13:51against almost
13:52any other team
13:53in the Premier League
13:54would hold
13:55his position
13:55and wait for
13:57I want to say
13:58that's Diego Lopez
13:59there
14:00to get across
14:01and cover
14:01because
14:02you've heard it
14:03so many times
14:03in commentary
14:04Brighton will be
14:05delighted if they're
14:06shooting from there
14:07but this is
14:08Aston Villa
14:08they've got
14:08nine goals
14:09from outside the box
14:10this season
14:11somebody
14:11needs to get
14:13in front of that
14:13Brighton will probably
14:14have been instructed
14:15to close down
14:16those shooting opportunities
14:17so with no one else
14:19there to do it
14:20Van Hecker has to do it
14:22he jumps out
14:22he wants to close down
14:23that space
14:24he shuts off
14:24the shooting opportunity
14:25but he also
14:26in the process
14:28leaves
14:29little gap behind him
14:31that Ollie Watkins
14:32happens to be standing in
14:33space
14:34that is simply
14:35never normally there
14:36for Aston Villa
14:37and very cleverly
14:38Buendia does not
14:40shoot
14:40he slips him in
14:41now this is a very
14:42minor small example
14:43they do not get a goal
14:44from it
14:45but they do eventually
14:46manage to work a chance
14:47but I would argue
14:48that is a chance
14:49that does not exist
14:51for most teams
14:52because you'll just
14:54let them shoot
14:55from those positions
14:56but
14:56you're going to take
14:58that chance with Villa
14:59now
14:59knowing how much
15:00they like to shoot
15:01no you're not
15:02and I honestly
15:03cannot think of
15:04another team
15:04in the Premier League
15:05where Van Hecker
15:06would look at that
15:07situation
15:07and think
15:08oh
15:09cool blimey mate
15:11I better get hurt
15:12then
15:12stop him
15:13before he hits
15:14real
15:15swears was
15:16and I know
15:18I know
15:18I know he's not
15:19I know he's not
15:19Australian
15:20I don't know why
15:21I did that
15:21so yes
15:22there you go
15:22that is how
15:22Unai Emery
15:23has fixed
15:24Aston Villa's problem
15:25of creating good chances
15:27by not fixing
15:29Aston Villa's problem
15:29of creating good chances
15:30just telling them
15:31to take the bad ones
15:33instead
15:33and I think
15:34over the course
15:35of the season
15:36you will see teams
15:37stop trying to
15:38prison yard block
15:40Aston Villa
15:40because that in itself
15:41becomes a risk
15:42but do you know
15:44what's really great
15:45about this
15:45right
15:46if you hate XG
15:47and you love
15:48finding examples
15:49of when it makes
15:50zero sense
15:51you can point at this
15:53as a time
15:53when it is doing that
15:55the team with the worst
15:56XG almost in the league
15:57are third
15:59but also
16:00equally
16:00if you really like XG
16:02and you love to talk
16:03about the ways
16:03that in proper context
16:04it can be very useful
16:05then you can also
16:07use this
16:07because Aston Villa
16:08are finding value
16:10and goals
16:10in positions
16:11that most teams
16:12don't defend
16:13because of its perceived
16:14lack of XG
16:16so you see
16:18everyone's a winner
16:19ish
16:20anyway
16:20that's the end of the video
16:21and today is actually
16:22the independent
16:23and by extension
16:23ACFC's Christmas party
16:25hence why I'm wearing
16:26such a lovely
16:27jazzy shirt
16:28so I'm going to go
16:29and enjoy that free bar now
16:30but thank you very much
16:31for watching this video
16:32if you're an Aston Villa fan
16:33you've got your own thoughts
16:34feelings
16:34anything else
16:35about it
16:36please do get it
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16:46it is a time of miracles
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16:59A
17:00I can put it in the background
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17:04that's it
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17:07you can go now
17:07goodbye
17:11boo
17:11I can put it in the background
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