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NewsTranscript
00:14Good morning, it is Thursday the 9th of April. I'm Maeve McMahon and this is Europe Today.
00:20Your daily dose of European news and analysis live here on Euronews.
00:25Coming up, Israel has carried out its deadliest attack yet on Lebanon since its war with Hezbollah began.
00:32More than 200 people are reported dead in an assault that is prompting Iranian officials to maybe withdraw from the
00:39fragile ceasefire agreed with the US.
00:42We'll speak to our correspondent in Lebanon.
00:44And after very frank talks at the White House, NATO Secretary General Marko Dutza has said Donald Trump was, quote,
00:51clearly disappointed that US allies had refused to join his war against Iran.
00:57Relations are awkward with NATO allies, with the US president calling NATO a one-way street and warning Europeans to
01:03start learning how to defend themselves.
01:05And just four days to go until Hungary's parliamentary election, shaping up to be the biggest test yet of Viktor
01:13Orban's 16 years in power.
01:15From smear campaigns to allegations of foreign interference, the campaign has been toxic.
01:21And the European Union is holding its breath. We'll have the latest from the Hungarian capital.
01:25But first, a two-week truce between the US and Iran hangs on a thread this morning, despite yesterday's victory
01:32lap by some from the US administration.
01:34For more, I'm joined here in the studio by our US politics expert, that's Stefan Krobey.
01:39Good morning, Stefan.
01:40Good morning, Maeve.
01:40So we're seeing the ceasefire already beginning to unravel and the Strait of Hormuz closed again.
01:46Are we back at square one?
01:47Absolutely, Maeve.
01:48This is a ceasefire in which fire has not ceased.
01:52I mean, for starters, Israel is still firing rockets into Iran to say nothing to laying waste to half of
01:59Lebanon,
01:59which prompted the Italian foreign minister yesterday to warn against a second Gaza.
02:05As you said, this has prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again.
02:10And there are conflicting reports as to whether some ships could make it and could pass yesterday.
02:16And finally, we're hearing reports from Israeli, from Iranian airstrikes against some of the Gulf states.
02:26And of course, what is in the deal?
02:27That is the big question as well.
02:29There's a lot of confusion about what's exactly in it.
02:32Well, that's the multimillion dollar question.
02:34Absolutely.
02:35There is confusion as to whether the English and the Farsi texts are actually identical.
02:40For example, Iran claims that it includes Israel and Lebanon, and Washington denies that.
02:46And that's, I mean, that's a basic point, right?
02:50And a political problem for Donald Trump is that Iran walks away with more than it had under a similar
02:57agreement under the Obama administration.
03:01Today, Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the deal turns that waterway basically into a giant tool
03:09booth.
03:10That's why oil executives have reached out to the White House complaining about this.
03:14They were saying, well, we didn't have to pay any tolls before the war started, and now we have to.
03:21So, we thought we were winning the war.
03:24So, that's a big problem, and there's a lot to talk about on Friday when peace talks officially start in
03:29Islamabad, Pakistan.
03:31Indeed.
03:31Stefan Krobey, thank you so much for that update.
03:34Well, on the back of the news of the ceasefire yesterday, global oil prices did fall sharply, and stock markets
03:40soared.
03:40But stocks are in free fall again this morning as the ceasefire looks set to unravel.
03:45To hear what this all means for us, we can now bring in the economist and professor, Maria de Martis.
03:50Good morning, Maria. Thank you so much for joining us.
03:53So, first, yesterday we saw markets very optimistic, but this reaction was premature given how fragile the ceasefire is.
04:00Do you think investors got a little bit ahead of themselves?
04:04Well, I think everybody's looking for good news, and that is true for investors as well.
04:08The fact that we do have a truce at the possibility of peace talks is a very good idea, and
04:12we are looking forward to that.
04:14But everything remains so fragile.
04:17And, of course, we have Israel that has an independent view on it in terms of what this peace might
04:22actually mean.
04:23So, the whole thing is extremely uncertain and will remain so.
04:26The volatility that it implies for markets will remain so, I'm afraid, at least in the short run.
04:30And as tensions escalate again, how quickly will prices spike up, do you think?
04:35Oh, I think the experience of the past few weeks, but also the experience we've had back in 2022, show
04:41that prices can be extremely volatile in both directions.
04:43So, I think, you know, to the extent that the peace deal might actually fail, we are going to see
04:47a huge spike again.
04:48I hope this will not be the case.
04:51But volatility really is the order of the day.
04:53So, what will this mean for European households?
04:55Our viewers tuning in this morning, should they expect high inflation?
04:59Well, we see it already in the petrol station where we go and reload our cars.
05:03I think we've seen it there.
05:05We might see it in an electricity bill, depending on what kind of contract we have.
05:09And there are big differences between both contracts and between countries in the EU.
05:12But then after that, we already see that the European Commission is downgrading its growth estimate for 2026, irrespective of
05:20what happens from now on, and is actually upgrading its inflation forecast for 2026 by about 1%.
05:27So, yes, the economic cost is already there.
05:30And, of course, whatever happens, some long-term damage is already done.
05:33Maria Demortiz, thank you so much for joining us this morning here on Europe Today.
05:37Now, moving on, the United Nations has warned that the scale of the killing in Israeli strikes against Lebanon is,
05:43quote, horrific.
05:44They've called on the international community to help end the unfolding nightmare.
05:49Italy and France have already spoken out.
05:51And for their part, the European Commission has told Israel to stop the violence and respect the UN peacekeeping mission.
05:57Speaking yesterday at a press conference here in Brussels, they said they call on Israel to cease the operation
06:03and respect Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
06:07For more, we can actually cross now straight over to Lebanon and bring in our correspondent in the coastal town
06:12of Thir, which is Sur in Arabeck.
06:15Ekbel Zayn is standing by for us there this morning.
06:18Good morning, Ekbel. Thank you so much for joining us here.
06:20Just tell us how are residents doing there and how exactly is the situation?
06:28So we're having some technical issues there with the sound of Ekbel Zayn, but we'll come back to her as
06:33soon as we can.
06:34But of course, all eyes here on Hungary, where parliamentary elections will take place this Sunday,
06:39which will have huge implications reaching well beyond the capital of Budapest.
06:44After 16 years in power, the Prime Minister Viktor Orban is facing a very credible challenge from Peter Maillard,
06:51whose TISA party is ahead in independent polling.
06:54For more, we can cross now over, hopefully, to Budapest and bring in your news correspondent, Zoltan Siboshegi,
07:00who's standing by for us this morning.
07:02Thank you so much, Zoltan, for joining us here.
07:05Just tell us first, what is the mood there ahead of Sunday's key elections?
07:10Good morning, Europe Today. Thank you for having me.
07:12So, actually, these weeks are the most turbulent times in the Hungarian politics in the last 30 years.
07:19There are leakings every day, every morning, all the politicians accusing each other that they are spies,
07:26they are talking about espionage actions, and people fighting on the street, they are arguing.
07:32The main reason is that, actually, for 16 years, there were no politics in Hungary.
07:37The government party was so solid that nobody really believed that they can change it.
07:42And two years ago, Peter Maillard just appeared from nothing, actually, from inside the system,
07:48and gave back to this hope to the people.
07:51They loved them with religious love.
07:53And, actually, there is a shield around him.
07:56He had a lot of accusations with sexual abuse, with corruption, everything,
08:02but nothing worked out.
08:05If you look around in Budapest, anywhere, there are huge billboards with the face of Volodymyr Zelensky,
08:12because they are telling that Peter Maillard is also an Ukrainian spy,
08:16but nobody really believes it according to the latest polls.
08:21What was a huge help for the Hungarian government that J.D. Wenz, the vice president of the United States,
08:29who visited Hungary for two and a half days, he emphasized, actually, he repeated the words of Viktor Orbán,
08:35telling that, yeah, the biggest threat for Europe and for Hungary is the Bristol bureaucrats.
08:42I've also been told that the vice president of the United States coming and saying that Viktor Orbán is doing
08:47a good job
08:48and is a helpful statesman to the cause of peace, that's foreign influence.
08:52When the European Union threatens billions of dollars withheld from Hungary because you guys protect your borders,
08:59that's apparently not foreign influence.
09:01When the Ukrainians shut down pipelines, causing suffering among the Hungarian people
09:07in an effort to influence an election, that's allegedly not foreign influence.
09:11It doesn't pass the smell test.
09:13That was J.D. Vance speaking there yesterday in Hungary,
09:16and of course, before that, our Hungarian correspondent.
09:19And we'll, of course, have live intensive coverage over the next couple of days on yournews.com,
09:23so do keep a close eye on that.
09:26But now we can bring you that interview that we promised,
09:28where our NATO correspondent, Shona Murray, had the opportunity to speak to Ivo Dalder.
09:33That's a former ambassador for NATO,
09:35and she started by asking him for his assessment on the very fragile ceasefire.
09:40Take a look.
09:41Although we've been six weeks into a war, an extraordinary bombing campaign by the United States
09:48and Israel, and I think Iran has the upper hand.
09:52I mean, that has been clear for quite a while.
09:54Remember, the Strait of Hormuz was open before the bombing started.
09:59Ships were going through, hundreds of them a day.
10:02Now ships may be going through.
10:04We don't know how many.
10:05We don't know when.
10:06We don't know where.
10:07And in any case, the Iranians are claiming they will maintain control.
10:12The armed forces of Iran will maintain control over shipments through the Straits.
10:16That is a massive change in Iran's benefit and to the detriment,
10:22not only of the United States and Israel,
10:23but frankly, to all the Gulf states who need the access to the Straits
10:28and so many others who depend on it.
10:30Well, I suppose also your heart would go out to the Iranian people
10:33who were protesting back in January, who were encouraged to continue their protests,
10:38who were promised that the Americans and the Israelis would assist them in regime change.
10:43And it actually looks like the Iranian regime has an even more ironclad control.
10:49Yeah, I think if this war ends like it does now, not just a two-week ceasefire by longer,
10:56we can say that none of the objectives, with perhaps the exception of the degree to which Iran still has
11:04a missile capability,
11:06that none of the objectives that were set out at the beginning of this campaign have been met.
11:10So when you look at it all, you say, why did we go to war?
11:15And if this is the result, you can't but conclude that this was a strategic blunder of historic proportion.
11:22The other question is the damage that has been done to NATO.
11:25I mean, you mentioned earlier there that allies have said this is not our war.
11:30NATO is a defensive organisation.
11:32You know, they're a pretty clear cut about that.
11:34Donald Trump is threatening to leave NATO, is humiliating NATO.
11:38It's a paper tiger.
11:39What is the impact of this?
11:41Well, I mean, clearly what's happened over the last six weeks has been extraordinarily damaging to NATO,
11:48coming on top of the extraordinarily damaging episode of our agreements.
11:52And I think the three months that have just passed, we will look back at it as the worst crisis
12:00that NATO has had in 77 years.
12:03It will end up with all European countries doubting that the United States,
12:08or at least a United States led by Donald Trump, can still be counted upon as a reliable ally when
12:14it comes to Article 5,
12:15or to collect defence of their territory.
12:18I know that Vladimir Putin is really, you know, can't believe his luck with this war in Iran.
12:23I mean, Donald Trump removed some of the sanctions on oil and so on.
12:27But if, let's say, he were to maybe test Article 5, maybe going into Estonia or one of those places,
12:34I mean, do you think that he might be a little bit more inclined to do that now, seeing the
12:37disarray within the alliance?
12:39Oh, absolutely. I think we are living in an extraordinarily dangerous period of time.
12:45We see a divide at NATO, which has been the goal of first the Soviet Union and then Russia for
12:50the better part of 80 years.
12:52A NATO that is truly at loggerheads.
12:55A NATO in which the President of the United States says, I'm not going to defend you.
12:58Don't count on me, as he put it, or bye-bye, as he said on his press conference on Monday.
13:05It is a it's a good time to test NATO if you are sitting in Moscow.
13:10By the way, it's a good time to test what you could get away with in Taiwan if you're sitting
13:14in Beijing,
13:15because much of the U.S. military capability has been moved to the Gulf.
13:21And indeed, much of the U.S. military capability has been expanded on this war,
13:27which turned out to be a strategic blunder of historic proportion.
13:30So we're living in a world where the possibility of major adversaries taking advantage of European weakness
13:39and American self-inflicted wounds is larger now than any time in my lifetime.
13:45And frankly, probably any time in anybody's lifetime.
13:47Final question, Ivo, because you're a dual national.
13:50You're you're born in The Hague.
13:51But I want to ask you a little bit about Mark Rutte's modus operandi when it comes to Donald Trump,
13:57because some people have found that a bit grating over the last few months that he hasn't been firm enough
14:02with Donald Trump.
14:03We saw in The Hague him referring to Trump as daddy and so on.
14:06Sometimes that's a bit of a joke.
14:07But there's a feeling that maybe he he just plays it up to Trump a little bit more to the
14:13detriment to to the European allies.
14:16What's your own interpretation?
14:17I think the big problem that Rutte faced is on the issue of Iran.
14:21He probably went too far.
14:23He probably went too much in the direction of supporting the president, particularly since 31 of his 32 constituents believe
14:31that the war that the president of the United States had started was both unnecessary and most importantly, illegal.
14:39And as a result, supporting the president sort of alienated him with many other countries.
14:48Shona Murray, they're speaking to Ivo Daldar.
14:50And now for the view from Lebanon, we can cross over once more to southern Lebanon, to the coastal town
14:55of Tir, which is Sur in Arabic, and bring in our reporter, Echbel Zane.
14:59Good morning, Echbel.
15:00Just tell us how are residents doing there and describe the situation on the ground.
15:06Good morning, Maeve.
15:08Well, as I said, today is a national warning day in Lebanon.
15:12Hundreds of civilians who were killed and wounded yesterday by Israeli airstrikes that targeted multiple areas in the country.
15:21That airstrike came without warnings and the bombardment continued overnight.
15:26Ambulances were racing, hospitals asking urgency for blood of all types.
15:31And also rescue missions were becoming more and more difficult as tens of people were stuck under the rubble.
15:38That sustained wave of bombardment was sending a clear Israeli message that Israel, at any coast, refuses to include Lebanon
15:47and any potential ceasefire between Iran and the United States.
15:51And how does that make people feel there?
15:53Are people now fleeing for fear of their lives?
15:57Well, when the ceasefire was announced and following Pakistan's statements, hopes were really high in the country that we might
16:06be included in that ceasefire.
16:08So, yes, most people first tried to rush and come back to the south.
16:13Yet, the Lebanese army prevented some of them because it's not safe yet.
16:18And yesterday, the Israeli army targeted the last key bridge linking south areas to north areas of Litani River to
16:26prevent people from returning to the south and also to assure that the war has not ended yet.
16:32Last day was one of the hardest days from the beginning of the war and people feel terrified and traumatized.
16:41So, many of them say that what's happening right now in the country goes beyond Lebanon.
16:47And the country is somehow in the middle of a regional equation between Iran trying to recognize the front again
16:54and the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to separate them.
17:00So, for now, all eyes are on the coming hours to see how things will evolve and unfold eventually.
17:07Indeed, on a very, very fragile situation.
17:09Stay safe and thank you so much for bringing us that live update there from Sour.
17:15Now, coming up, as we said earlier, this Sunday, Hungarian parliamentary elections.
17:20For more on what the outcome of these parliamentary elections could mean for EU-Hungarian relations,
17:25our reporter Jakub Janus now takes a look at the stance of both candidates.
17:32If there is one thing everyone is watching in Brussels right now, it is the Hungarian elections happening this Sunday.
17:38On one side sits Viktor Orban and his ruling Fidesz party, and on the other is Petr Magyar and his
17:44challenger Tisa party.
17:45But when it comes to the biggest European issues, your reporter was curious whose side they're actually on.
17:53If they shared a flight to Belgium, their views on Brussels could not be more different.
17:58Orban fights EU influence to protect national sovereignty.
18:02Whereas Magyar wants to repair the relationship, but avoids looking like he takes orders from the EU,
18:07deliberately keeping his distance from leaders like Ursula von der Leyen.
18:11Okay, but when they pick up the phone, who is on the other end?
18:15Orban maintains tight ties with the Kremlin.
18:17His foreign minister was even caught briefing Moscow around key EU meetings.
18:21And Magyar condemns this, accusing the government of acting on Vladimir Putin's behalf.
18:26However, looking next door to Ukraine, they differ in theory, but share a political calculation.
18:33Orban regularly blocks EU aid, campaigning on the fear of war.
18:37And Magyar avoids speaking about Ukraine, and his party opposes Ukraine's fast-track EU membership.
18:42But you see, there is a slight difference between them.
18:45Magyar personally delivered aid to a Russian bomb children's hospital in Kyiv.
18:50Finally, looking across the Atlantic, Orban relies on his close friendship with Donald Trump.
18:55Even hosting US Vice President J.D. Vance this week.
18:59Mr. President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you even more than
19:05they love Viktor Orban.
19:06And Magyar rejects this kind of personality-driven diplomacy, promising to root out Russian influence and restore Hungary as a
19:14reliable NATO ally.
19:15So as you can see, all of that paints a very intriguing political picture.
19:20However, let's not forget that in these elections, Hungarian opposition leader faces a severely unequal playing field.
19:26After 16 years in power, Fidesz maintains a massive grip over the state and public money, using redrawn voting districts
19:34and compliant media to gain advantage.
19:36And with Hungarian social media flooded with deep fakes targeting Petr Magyar and Tisa Parti, Sunday's vote will decide if
19:45the facts or the fakes shapes Hungary's future.
19:53Yeah, I could be honest, they're reporting for us, and you can read more about the high stakes of these
19:58elections on euronews.com.
20:00But for now, thank you so much for tuning in to Europe Today.
20:03Stay tuned with us here on Euronews for a brand new episode of The Ring, brought to you from the
20:07European Parliament here in Brussels.
20:09Take care and see you soon on Euronews.
20:18Take care and see you soon on Euronews.
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