اروپا امروز: آتش‌بس ایران در خطر؛ حملات اسرائیل در لبنان بیش از ۲۰۰ کشته

euronews (بزبان فارسی)

اروپا امروز: آتش‌بس ایران در خطر؛ حملات اسرائیل در لبنان بیش از ۲۰۰ کشته  برنامه صبحگاهی اصلی یورونیوز «اروپا امروز» را ساعت ۸ صبح به وقت بروکسل تماشا کنید. تنها در ۲۰ دقیقه مهمترین خبرهای روز را برایتان مرور می‌کنیم.  لب بیشتر : http://parsi.euronews.com/2026/04/09/europe-today-ceasefire-in-iran-at-risk-as-israeli-strikes-kill-over-200-in-lebanon  مشترک شوید: یورونیوز به یازده زبان دیگر در دسترس شماست

Transcript

00:14Good morning, it is Thursday the 9th of April. I'm Maeve McMahon and this is Europe Today.

00:20Your daily dose of European news and analysis live here on Euronews.

00:25Coming up, Israel has carried out its deadliest attack yet on Lebanon since its war with Hezbollah began.

00:32More than 200 people are reported dead in an assault that is prompting Iranian officials to maybe withdraw from the

00:39fragile ceasefire agreed with the US.

00:42We'll speak to our correspondent in Lebanon.

00:45And after very frank talks at the White House, NATO Secretary General Markovita has said Donald Trump was, quote,

00:51clearly disappointed that US allies have refused to join his war against Iran.

00:57Relations are awkward with NATO allies, with the US president calling NATO a one-way street and warning Europeans to

01:03start learning how to defend themselves.

01:06And just four days to go until Hungary's parliamentary election, shaping up to be the biggest test yet of Viktor

01:13Orbán's 16 years in power.

01:15From smear campaigns to allegations of foreign interference, the campaign has been toxic and the European Union is holding its

01:23breath.

01:23We'll have the latest from the Hungarian capital.

01:25But first, a two-week truce between the US and Iran hangs on a thread this morning, despite yesterday's victory

01:32lap by some from the US administration.

01:34For more, I'm joined here in the studio by our US politics expert, that's Stefan Krobey.

01:39Good morning, Stefan.

01:40Good morning, Maeve.

01:40So we're seeing the ceasefire already beginning to unravel and the Strait of Hormuz closed again.

01:45Are we back at square one?

01:47Absolutely, Maeve.

01:48This is a ceasefire in which fire has not ceased.

01:52I mean, for starters, Israel is still firing rockets into Iran to say nothing to laying waste to half of

01:59Lebanon, which prompted the Italian foreign minister yesterday to warn against a second Gaza.

02:05As you said, this has prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again.

02:10And there are conflicting reports as to whether some ships could make it and could pass yesterday.

02:17And finally, we're hearing reports from Israeli, from Iranian airstrikes against some of the Gulf states.

02:26And, of course, what is in the deal?

02:27That is the big question as well.

02:29There's a lot of confusion about what's exactly in it.

02:32Well, that's the multimillion dollar question.

02:34Absolutely.

02:34There is confusion as to whether the English and the Farsi texts are actually identical.

02:40For example, Iran claims that it includes Israel and Lebanon and Washington denies that.

02:46And that's, I mean, that's a basic point, right?

02:50And a political problem for Donald Trump is that Iran walks away with more than it had under a similar

02:57agreement under the Obama administration.

03:00Today, Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz.

03:05And the deal turns that waterway basically into a giant tool booth.

03:10That's why oil executives have reached out to the White House complaining about this.

03:14They were saying, well, we didn't have to pay any tolls before the war started.

03:20And now we have to.

03:21We thought we were winning the war.

03:23So that's a big problem.

03:25And there's a lot to talk about on Friday when peace talks officially start in Islamabad, Pakistan.

03:31Indeed, Stefan Krobey, thank you so much for that update.

03:34Well, on the back of the news of the ceasefire yesterday, global oil prices did fall sharply and stock markets

03:39soared.

03:40But stocks are in free fall again this morning as the ceasefire looks set to unravel.

03:45To hear what this all means for us, we can now bring in the economist and professor Maria de Martis.

03:50Good morning, Maria.

03:50Thank you so much for joining us.

03:53So first, yesterday we saw markets very optimistic, but this reaction was premature given how fragile the ceasefire is.

04:00Do you think investors got a little bit ahead of themselves?

04:03Well, I think everybody's looking for good news, and that is true for investors as well.

04:08The fact that we do have a truce, the possibility of peace talks is a very good idea, and we

04:12are looking forward to that.

04:14But everything remains so fragile.

04:17And, of course, we have Israel that has an independent view on in terms of what this peace might actually

04:22mean.

04:23So the whole thing is extremely uncertain and will remain so.

04:26The volatility that it implies for markets will remain so, I'm afraid, at least in the short run.

04:30And as tensions escalate again, how quickly will prices spike up, do you think?

04:35Oh, I think the experience of the past few weeks, but also the experience we've had back in 2022, show

04:40that prices can be extremely volatile in both directions.

04:43So I think, you know, to the extent that the peace deal might actually fail, we are going to see

04:47a huge spike again.

04:48I hope this will not be the case.

04:51But volatility really is the order of the day.

04:53So what will this mean for European households?

04:55Our viewers tuning in this morning, should they expect high inflation?

04:59Well, we see it already in the petrol station where we go and reload our cars.

05:03I think we've seen it there.

05:04We might see it in an electricity bill, depending on what kind of contract we have.

05:09And there are big differences between both contracts and between countries in the EU.

05:12But then after that, we already see that the European Commission is downgrading its growth estimate for 2026, irrespective of

05:20what happens from now on, and is actually upgrading its inflation forecast for 2026 by about 1%.

05:27So, yes, the economic cost is already there.

05:29And, of course, whatever happens, some long-term damage is already done.

05:32Maria Demortiz, thank you so much for joining us this morning here on Europe Today.

05:37Now, moving on, the United Nations has warned that the scale of the killing in Israeli strikes against Lebanon is,

05:43quote, horrific.

05:44They've called on the international community to help end the unfolding nightmare.

05:49Italy and France have already spoken out.

05:51And for their part, the European Commission has told Israel to stop the violence and respect the UN peacekeeping mission.

05:57Speaking yesterday at a press conference here in Brussels, they said they call on Israel to cease the operation

06:03and respect Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

06:07For more, we can actually cross now straight over to Lebanon and bring in our correspondent in the coastal town

06:12of Thir, which is Sur, in Arabeck.

06:15Ekbel Zayn is standing by for us there this morning.

06:18Good morning, Ekbel. Thank you so much for joining us here.

06:20Just tell us how are residents doing there and how exactly is the situation?

06:28So we're having some technical issues there with the sound of Ekbel Zayn, but we'll come back to her as

06:33soon as we can.

06:34But of course, all eyes here on Hungary, where parliamentary elections will take place this Sunday,

06:39which will have huge implications reaching well beyond the capital of Budapest.

06:44After 16 years in power, the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is facing a very credible challenge from Peter Maillard,

06:51whose TISA party is ahead in independent polling.

06:54For more, we can cross now over, hopefully, to Budapest and bring in your news correspondent, Zoltan Sibosheggi,

07:00who's standing by for us this morning.

07:02Thank you so much, Zoltan, for joining us here.

07:05Just tell us first, what is the mood there ahead of Sunday's key elections?

07:10Good morning, Europe, today. Thank you for having me.

07:12So, actually, these weeks are the most turbulent times in the Hungarian politics in the last 30 years.

07:20There are leakings every day, every morning, all the politicians accusing each other that they are spies,

07:26they are talking about espionage actions, and people fighting on the street, they are arguing.

07:32The main reason is that, actually, for 16 years, there were no politics in Hungary.

07:37The government party was so solid that nobody really believed that they can change it.

07:42And two years ago, Peter Maillard just appeared from nothing, actually, from inside the system,

07:48and gave back to this hope to the people.

07:50They loved them with religious love.

07:53And actually, there is a shield around him.

07:56He had a lot of accusations with sexual abuse, with corruption, everything, but nothing worked out.

08:04But if you look around in Budapest anywhere, there are huge billboards with the face of Volodymyr Zelensky,

08:12because they are telling that Peter Maillard is also an Ukrainian spy,

08:16but nobody really believes it according to the latest polls.

08:21What was a huge help for the Hungarian government that J.D. Wenz, the vice president of the United States,

08:29who visited Hungary for two and a half days, he emphasized, actually, he repeated the words of Viktor Orbán,

08:35telling that, yeah, the biggest threat for Europe and for Hungary is the Bristol bureaucrats.

08:42I've also been told that the vice president of the United States coming and saying that Viktor Orbán is doing

08:47a good job

08:48and is a helpful statesman to the cause of peace, that's foreign influence.

08:52When the European Union threatens billions of dollars withheld from Hungary because you guys protect your borders,

08:59that's apparently not foreign influence.

09:01When the Ukrainians shut down pipelines, causing suffering among the Hungarian people in an effort to influence an election,

09:08that's allegedly not foreign influence. It doesn't pass the smell test.

09:14That was J.D. Vance speaking there yesterday in Hungary and, of course, before that, our Hungarian correspondent.

09:19And we'll, of course, have live intensive coverage over the next couple of days on yournews.com,

09:23so do keep a close eye on that.

09:26But now we can bring you that interview that we promised,

09:28where our NATO correspondent, Shona Murray, had the opportunity to speak to Ivo Dalder,

09:33that's a former ambassador for NATO,

09:35and she started by asking him for his assessment on the very fragile ceasefire.

09:40Take a look.

09:41Although we've been six weeks into a war,

09:44an extraordinary bombing campaign by the United States and Israel,

09:50and I think Iran has the upper hand.

09:52I mean, that has been clear for quite a while.

09:54Remember, the Strait of Hormuz was open before the bombing started.

09:59Ships were going through, hundreds of them a day.

10:01Now, ships may be going through.

10:04We don't know how many.

10:05We don't know when.

10:06We don't know where.

10:07And in any case, the Iranians are claiming they will maintain control.

10:12The armed forces of Iran will maintain control over shipments through the Straits.

10:16That is a massive change in Iran's benefit and to the detriment,

10:21not only of the United States and Israel,

10:23but frankly, to all the Gulf states who need the access to the Straits

10:27and so many others who depend on it.

10:29Well, I suppose also your heart would go out to the Iranian people

10:33who were protesting back in January,

10:35who were encouraged to continue their protests,

10:38who were promised that the Americans and the Israelis would assist them

10:41in regime change.

10:43And it actually looks like the Iranian regime has an even more ironclad control.

10:49Yeah, I think if this war ends like it does now,

10:54not just a two-week ceasefire by longer,

10:57we can say that none of the objectives,

10:59with perhaps the exception of the degree to which Iran still has a missile capability,

11:06that none of the objectives that were set out at the beginning of this campaign have been met.

11:10So, when you look at it all, you say, why did we go to war?

11:15And if this is the result, you can't but conclude that this was a strategic blunder of historic proportion.

11:22The other question is the damage that has been done to NATO.

11:25I mean, you mentioned earlier there that allies have said this is not our war.

11:30NATO is a defensive organization.

11:31You know, they're a pretty clear cut about that.

11:34Donald Trump is threatening to leave NATO, is humiliating NATO.

11:37It's a paper tiger.

11:39What is the impact of this?

11:41Well, I mean, clearly what's happened over the last six weeks has been extraordinarily damaging to NATO,

11:48coming on top of the extraordinarily damaging episode of regreens.

11:52And I think the three months that have just passed,

11:57we will look back at it as the worst crisis that NATO has had in 77 years.

12:02It will end up with all European countries doubting that the United States or at least a United States led

12:10by Donald Trump can still be counted upon as a reliable ally when it comes to Article 5 or to

12:16collect the defense of their territory.

12:18I know that Vladimir Putin is really, you know, can't believe his luck with this war in Iran.

12:23I mean, Donald Trump removed some of the sanctions on oil and so on.

12:27But if, let's say, he were to maybe test Article 5, maybe going into Estonia or one of those places,

12:34I mean, do you think that he might be a little bit more inclined to do that now, seeing the

12:37disarray within the alliance?

12:40Oh, absolutely.

12:40I think we are living in an extraordinarily dangerous period of time.

12:45We see a divided NATO, which has been the goal of first the Soviet Union and then Russia for the

12:50better part of 80 years.

12:51A NATO that is truly at loggerheads, a NATO in which the President of the United States says, I'm not

12:57going to defend you.

12:58Don't count on me, as he put it, or bye-bye, as he said on his press conference on Monday.

13:06It's a good time to test NATO if you are sitting in Moscow.

13:10By the way, it's a good time to test what you could get away with in Taiwan if you're sitting

13:14in Beijing,

13:15because much of the U.S. military capability has been moved to the Gulf,

13:21and indeed much of the U.S. military capability has been expanded on this war,

13:26which turned out to be a strategic blunder of historic proportions.

13:30So we're living in a world where the possibility of major adversaries taking advantage of European weakness

13:39and American self-inflicted wounds is larger now than any time in my lifetime,

13:45and frankly, probably any time in anybody's lifetime.

13:47Final question, Ivo, because you're a dual national, you're born in The Hague,

13:51but I want to ask you a little bit about Mark Rutte's modus operandi when it comes to Donald Trump,

13:57because some people have found that a bit grating over the last few months

14:00that he hasn't been firm enough with Donald Trump.

14:03We saw in The Hague him referring to Trump as daddy and so on.

14:06Sometimes that's a bit of a joke, but there's a feeling that maybe he just plays it up to Trump

14:12a little bit more to the detriment to the European allies.

14:16What's your own interpretation?

14:17I think the big problem that Rutte faced is on the issue of Iran.

14:21He probably went too far.

14:23He probably went too much in the direction of supporting the president,

14:28particularly since 31 of his 32 constituents believed that the war that the president of the United States had started

14:34was both unnecessary and, most importantly, illegal.

14:39And as a result, supporting the president sort of alienated him with many other countries.

14:48Shona Murray there speaking to Ivo Dalder.

14:50And now for the view from Lebanon, we can cross over once more to southern Lebanon,

14:54to the coastal town of Tir, which is Sur in Arabic, and bring in our reporter, Echbel Zayn.

14:59Good morning, Echbel.

15:00Just tell us how are residents doing there and describe the situation on the ground.

15:06Good morning, Maeve.

15:08Well, as I said, today is a national morning day in Lebanon.

15:12Hundreds of civilians who were killed and wounded yesterday by Israeli airstrikes that targeted multiple areas in the country.

15:21That airstrike came without warnings, and the bombardment continued overnight.

15:26Ambulances were racing, hospitals asking urgently for blood of all types.

15:31And also rescue missions were becoming more and more difficult as tens of people were stuck under the rubble.

15:38That sustained wave of bombardment was sending a clear Israeli message that Israel, at any coast,

15:45refuses to include Lebanon and any potential ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

15:51And how does that make people feel there?

15:53Are people now fleeing for fear of their lives?

15:58Well, when the ceasefire was announced, and following Pakistan's statements,

16:03hosts were really high in the country that we might be included in that ceasefire.

16:08So, yes, most people first tried to rush and come back to the south,

16:13yet the Lebanese army prevented some of them because it's not safe yet.

16:18And yesterday, the Israeli army targeted the last key bridge linking south areas to north areas of Litani River

16:25to prevent people from returning to the south and also to assure that the war has not ended yet.

16:32The last day was one of the hardest days from the beginning of the war.

16:37And people feel terrified and traumatized.

16:41So, yeah, many of them say that what's happening right now in the country goes beyond Lebanon.

16:47And the country is somehow in the middle of a regional equation between Iran trying to reunite the front again

16:54and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to separate them.

17:00So, for now, all eyes are on the coming hours to see how things will evolve and unfold eventually.

17:07Indeed, on a very, very fragile situation.

17:10Stay safe and thank you so much for bringing us that live update there from Sour.

17:14Now, coming up, as we said earlier, this Sunday, Hungarian parliamentary elections.

17:20For more on what the outcome of these parliamentary elections could mean for EU-Hungarian relations,

17:25our reporter Jakub Janos now takes a look at the stance of both candidates.

17:32If there is one thing everyone is watching in Brussels right now,

17:35it is the Hungarian elections happening this Sunday.

17:38On one side sits Viktor Orban and his ruling Fidesz party.

17:42And on the other is Peter Magyar and his challenger Tisa party.

17:45But when it comes to the biggest European issues,

17:48your reporter was curious whose side they are actually on.

17:53If they shared a flight to Belgium,

17:56their views on Brussels could not be more different.

17:58Orban fights EU influence to protect national sovereignty.

18:02Whereas Magyar wants to repair the relationship,

18:04but avoids looking like he takes orders from the EU,

18:07deliberately keeping his distance from leaders like Ursula von der Leyen.

18:11Okay, but when they pick up the phone, who is on the other end?

18:15Orban maintains tight ties with the Kremlin.

18:17His foreign minister was even caught briefing Moscow around key EU meetings.

18:21And Magyar condemns this, accusing the government of acting on Vladimir Putin's behalf.

18:26However, looking next door to Ukraine,

18:29they differ in theory, but share a political calculation.

18:33Orban regularly blocks EU aid, campaigning on the fear of war.

18:36And Magyar avoids speaking about Ukraine and his party opposes Ukraine's fast-track EU membership.

18:42But you see, there is a slight difference between them.

18:45Magyar personally delivered aid to a Russian bomb children's hospital in Kyiv.

18:50Finally, looking across the Atlantic,

18:52Orban relies on his close friendship with Donald Trump,

18:55even hosting US Vice President J.D. Vance this week.

18:59Mr. President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots,

19:03and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban.

19:06And Magyar rejects this kind of personality-driven diplomacy,

19:10promising to root out Russian influence and restore Hungary as a reliable NATO ally.

19:15So as you can see, all of that paints a very intriguing political picture.

19:20However, let's not forget that in these elections,

19:22Hungarian opposition leader faces a severely unequal playing field.

19:26After 16 years in power, Fidesz maintains a massive grip over the state and public money,

19:32using redrawn voting districts and compliant media to gain advantage.

19:36And with Hungarian social media flooded with deep fakes targeting Petr Magyar and Tisa party,

19:43Sunday's vote will decide if the facts or the fakes shapes Hungary's future.

19:53Jakob Janis there reporting for us,

19:56and you can read more about the high stakes of these elections on euronews.com.

20:00But for now, thank you so much for tuning in to Europe Today.

20:03Stay tuned with us here on Euronews for a brand new episode of The Ring,

20:06brought to you from the European Parliament here in Brussels.

20:09Take care and see you soon on Euronews.

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