00:00And with that, off to Mike McKee. He's at the Fed in D.C. Mike.
00:04Well, no surprise, the Iran war and tariffs were central to the discussion among Fed officials at their March meeting.
00:10The full effect of tariffs had not yet moved through the economy, officials said.
00:15A resilient economy, they called it.
00:18And the war, then only a few weeks old, raised the threat of inflation increasing and hiring slowing.
00:25Some participants judged there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions
00:32in their post-meeting statement,
00:34reflecting the possibility that higher inflation might call for rates to be increased, although no member called for a rate
00:42move at that meeting.
00:43Most participants raised the concern that a protracted war could lead to further softening of labor markets, which would warrant
00:50additional rate cuts.
00:51But many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected, which, quote, could call for
00:59rate increases.
01:00The vast majority of participants noted that progress toward the committee's 2 percent objective could be slower than previously expected,
01:09the Minutes say.
01:10Labor market conditions appeared vulnerable to adverse shock.
01:13They say most participants highlighting the risk that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could weigh on business sentiment
01:20and further reduce hiring.
01:22As for policy, most participants felt it was too early to judge how the war would affect the economy.
01:29Many participants judging that in time, it would be likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal
01:36funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations.
01:40A couple highlighted, though, that they had pushed their assessment of the most likely timing of rate cuts further into
01:46the future.
01:48Stephen Myron, though not named, was the only dissenter.
01:51The Minutes do note that one participant argued rates were still restrictive, and that was increasing risks to the labor
01:58market.
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