#video #Clash Of The Superpowers Ameri Episode 1 Engsub
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00:04Xi Jinping and Donald Trump the leaders of the world's most powerful countries are locked in a
00:11high-stakes battle for global power and influence it's a fight that's threatened to explode since
00:19Trump first took office tore up the diplomatic rule book and smashed the consensus on free trade
00:26we lose almost 500 billion dollars a year with China and we want to know what's wrong with us
00:34we are about to help President Trump affect the biggest shift in U.S. foreign policy since the
00:40end of the Cold War now with both sides staking their claims on different parts of the world
00:45this is the story of how these two superpowers have become tangled in a struggle for economic
00:51supremacy with repercussions everywhere we have to realize there's this crisis and we have to take
00:58action to change the alternative is total defeat we'll hear from top U.S. officials and Chinese
01:06academics who give the inside track from Beijing when the president's off the handle you don't know
01:14what's going to happen as well as those caught in the middle of this dangerous standoff the message
01:21from the White House was president of the United States wants you to choose and he wants you to
01:27a few days before Donald Trump was first sworn in as president Xi Jinping headed to the Swiss Alps the
01:55leader of
01:55the world's largest communist country was there to join the business and political elites at the annual world economic forum
02:05this is first time president Xi attended so China want to make a clear point where we stand on international
02:14economic system
02:19Davos is an extraordinary environment it's jammed solid with the world's political leaders bankers financiers this year in particular was
02:33extraordinary because Trump was about to be inaugurated and many of us were quite alarmed
02:42we never seen a politician like Trump you can nobody know his quality how he operates
02:50Trump was clearly turning his back on free trade and open markets the traditional American mantras that had led the
03:00free world for for decades and then enrolls president Xi in a magnificent piece of theater
03:07and delivers a speech which says essentially I am the custodian of free trade and open markets
03:40I never thought in my lifetime to see a communist leader actually to defend the free trade
03:46but remember free trade is good for China the other thing is to remind Trump that this is your system
03:54you created to benefit you and also benefit the rest of the world so you better keep it don't abandon
04:03the ship you are the captain
04:06people didn't know whether he was taking the mickey a little bit at first
04:12it was such an extraordinary counterintuitive speech for Xi to be making
04:18follow me work with me to ensure that we don't allow anyone in brackets incoming US President Trump to trample
04:28down this magnificent free trading structure that has made us all so much more prosperous
04:34thank you
04:35he saw an opportunity and he took it it was a brilliantly crafted intervention and it completely stole the show
04:45she was the toast of Davos
04:50quite a journey for a man who become leader of the Chinese Communist Party the CCP only four years earlier
05:03he'd taken office promising to build on a booming economy and to reclaim China's centuries old place as a leading
05:10nation of the world
05:12he called his vision the Chinese dream
05:28what China dream basically means that China restore its previous position it's not China will dominate or try to take
05:41over the world
05:43in the West the press called rise of China which is a total misnomer
05:50she make a point saying this is a restoration not rice
05:55please welcome the next president of the United States
05:59Mr. Donald J. Trump
06:02now Trump was heading to the White House with his own promise to make his country great again
06:09his victory followed a campaign where he put China front and center of his foreign policy in his own unique
06:17style
06:17we can't continue to allow China to rape our country and that's what they're doing
06:24it's the greatest theft in the history of the world
06:30one of the first times I briefed President Trump was during the campaign
06:35I get about four sentences into my briefing my brilliant briefing on China
06:39and then Donald Trump with like a staccato approach starts firing questions at me
06:46what's China's GNP?
06:48what's the trading balance between the United States and China?
06:51is there military any good?
06:54and then I realized he cared about the balance of payments
06:58he knew about tariffs
07:01he understood the business aspect of the relationship
07:06for many decades we've made other countries rich
07:11while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country
07:16has dissipated over the horizon
07:19USA! USA!
07:21he paid attention to a group of people
07:23what we call our Rust Belt
07:25the former manufacturing part of the United States
07:27he was the only candidate who recognized their legitimate pain
07:31and the only candidate who had a solution
07:33which is we're going to go and renegotiate all those trade deals with China
07:38together we will make America great again
07:43thank you, God bless you and God bless America
07:55I remember walking into the executive office building
07:59one day into the Trump presidency
08:01and there's a big sign that lists all the meetings that are being held
08:05and one of the titles is something like
08:07let's talk about greater US-China economic integration
08:11this is a day into the Donald Trump administration
08:14and he's just won an election
08:16with a significant part of his agenda being
08:19to fight off China's economic predation
08:23and people in his bureaucracy, in his building
08:26are having meetings about how we could do more economically with China
08:31I was surprised by some of the assumptions
08:35that were being presented by
08:39long-time diplomats, long-time intelligence officers and others
08:43there was a view that really all that Beijing wanted
08:47at the end of the day was just to access a large American market
08:51and to prosper and thrive in a US-dominated world order
08:57I thought that those assessments were out of date to put it mildly
09:04In the 80s and 90s, the Chinese Communist Party
09:07had opened the country to Western markets
09:10part of what they called socialism with Chinese characteristics
09:15the country enjoyed unprecedented growth
09:18which was given a huge boost in 2001
09:21when China was welcomed into the WTO
09:24the World Trade Organization
09:28it defined China as a developing economy
09:31meaning trade rules were applied more leniently
09:34while the world's biggest companies continue to flood into the country
09:41I was there as a reporter for Reuters news agency
09:45all the way from the late 90s until 2005
09:49it was a heady time
09:51it was hard not to feel optimism
09:54that China would continue opening up
09:59that its marketization would continue
10:03and there was a hope
10:05the politics would begin to moderate as well
10:09but by the time I left
10:12I had this sinking feeling
10:13that many of those optimistic assumptions
10:16were going to be dashed
10:22I think China entered the WTO
10:25with a really good deal
10:27they got the benefits of participating
10:29in a global trading system
10:31in which there were rules and norms
10:34but it was given a special carve-out
10:36where it could pretend
10:38that it was a developing country
10:39which I think is always tough
10:42when you're one of the world's largest consumers
10:44of Ferraris and Lamborghinis
10:46it's entirely logical
10:48and sort of expected
10:50that Beijing would want to maintain that system
10:56Coming into the White House
10:57Trump's team included hawkish advisors
11:00who wanted to ensure the new president
11:02would deliver on his promise to take on China
11:05but they knew
11:06that for all of Trump's tough talk
11:08he had a reputation to protect
11:10as a champion of business
11:13and he wanted to keep the CEOs on side
11:16many of whom had moved manufacturing
11:18to China
11:22in the White House
11:23in the White House
11:23we had the two camps start to develop
11:25the more globalist establishment camp
11:29and more of the kind of disruptors
11:32populist nationalist camp
11:34the biggest fights were about China and trade
11:36and that's because the reason is
11:38we had so many Wall Street guys
11:41and look I worked at Goldman Sachs
11:43we had Goldman Sachs guys in there
11:45Goldman Sachs and Wall Street
11:47is the investor relations partner
11:49for the Chinese CCP
11:50this radical cadre
11:52that runs China
11:55Chief amongst the Wall Street faction
11:57was Gary Cohn
11:59the former president of Goldman Sachs
12:01and Trump's choice
12:03as his top economic advisor
12:05as a market practitioner
12:07I think that we can have
12:10a globalized world
12:12that works well
12:14you want to expand your plant
12:16or when Mark wants to come in
12:18and build a big massive plant
12:20or when Dell wants to come in
12:22and do something monstrous and special
12:26you're going to have your approvals really fast
12:28thank you sir
12:29the question is can we both be complementary
12:32to each other
12:33I think the answer is yes
12:38whether the Hawks or the globalists
12:40would have their upper hand
12:41would be put to the test
12:43at Trump's first summit with Xi
12:46as he got ready
12:48the US president was briefed
12:49by his national security advisor
12:53President Trump is kind of
12:54reflexively contrarian
12:56and because he's reflexively contrarian
12:58if you advise President Trump
13:00and say hey everybody agrees
13:02this is what you should say
13:04he might just say the opposite
13:06despite everybody
13:07so what we decided
13:08is what we would emphasize
13:10with President Trump
13:11is what Xi Jinping wants him to say
13:13and let President Trump be contrary
13:15to Xi Jinping
13:16rather than to his advisors
13:23what we said to President Trump
13:24what we said to President Trump
13:24is how Xi Jinping uses this language
13:27that sounds nice
13:28or at least innocuous
13:30and when the Chinese Communist Party officials
13:31say win-win
13:32what they mean
13:33is they win twice
13:36Xi arrived in America
13:37hoping Trump might back down
13:39from the aggressive threats
13:41of his campaign
13:43You know for people in China
13:44basically we know
13:45every election
13:47there's always a
13:48bashing China element somewhere
13:50a lot of name calling
13:52a lot of blaming
13:53I think also the advisors
13:55that he's using at that time
13:56was very hawkish
13:57like Steve Bannon
13:58Matt Partinger
13:59and all those people
14:00but then normally
14:02when the new administration
14:03come into the White House
14:05it becomes more
14:06you know
14:06pragmatic
14:09President Xi
14:10attached great importance
14:12to the personal relationship
14:14his personality
14:16is
14:17he's very easygoing
14:19he wants to make friends
14:21and when he recognizes
14:23the other side as a friend
14:25I think that will be very helpful
14:27for the bilateral relations
14:31Trump had chosen to host Xi
14:33not at the White House
14:34but at his Palm Beach resort
14:36Mar-a-Lago
14:39President Trump
14:40he fancies himself
14:41as a great negotiator
14:42and part of that
14:44is separating the relationship
14:45from the tough issues
14:47you're negotiating
14:48thank you
14:48thank you
14:49he's in the hospitality business
14:52he had his granddaughter
14:54who was learning Chinese
14:58sing a Chinese folk song
15:05this is a great move
15:06it's very positive
15:08it's like a family reunion
15:16one of the biggest parts
15:18of Mar-a-Lago
15:19was time set aside
15:22for the two heads of state
15:23to be alone
15:24one on one
15:25the two spent
15:27a vast amount
15:28of time together
15:29the main message
15:30the president
15:31was delivering to us
15:33is that you know
15:33he and she
15:34were hitting it off
15:38it seems they like each other
15:40yeah chemistry is good
15:44we've had a long
15:46discussion already
15:48and so far
15:49I have gotten nothing
15:51absolutely nothing
15:53but we have developed
15:54a friendship
15:55I can see that
15:56and I think
15:57you know President Trump
15:58he's a New Yorker
15:59I'm a New Yorker
16:00and New York men
16:02of that certain age
16:02they tend to say
16:03he's my best friend
16:04he's a pal of mine
16:07and they were not really friends
16:08they've just met each other
16:09and they probably
16:10have business interests together
16:11but it doesn't mean
16:12they're golf buddies
16:13so when President Trump says
16:15oh he's my friend
16:16I think what that meant
16:17is that President Trump
16:17met him
16:18he understands how he's
16:19going to negotiate with him
16:20thank you everybody
16:21thank you very much
16:22thank you very much
16:28Xi wasn't only relying
16:29on his budding relationship
16:31with Trump
16:32he'd long been working
16:33to ensure China
16:35would be at the center
16:35of global trade
16:37with or without America
16:41a month after Mar-a-Lago
16:42he played host to leaders
16:44from around the world
16:45to celebrate his flagship initiative
16:49Belt and Road
16:58Harking back to the ancient Silk Road
17:01between East and West
17:02Belt and Road
17:04aimed to better link China
17:05with the world
17:06financing huge infrastructure projects
17:11One of the most ambitious schemes
17:13ever conceived
17:14it spanned continents
17:16with over a trillion dollars spent
17:21showcasing China's ability
17:22to deliver world-leading feats
17:24of engineering
17:27now Xi put on a summit
17:29befitting its scale
17:31the Chinese do know
17:33how to put on a show
17:34the biggest rooms you've ever seen
17:37vast banqueting tables
17:39you know more flowers
17:40you know more flowers
17:41than they've got in Kew Gardens
17:42to invite President Xi
17:43to the podium
17:45President Xi decided to make
17:48a Belt and Road summit
17:49to assure the world
17:50if the US is back to the protectionism
17:54China is still there to help
17:55and to work with everybody
17:57Belt and Road is important
18:01in the demonstrating
18:02to the American president
18:04or American government
18:07that China could have alternative
18:11if Western countries decide to block
18:14or slow down
18:15Chinese economic activities
18:25Cutting a somewhat lonely figure
18:28at the summit
18:28was the US Representative Matt Pottinger
18:32one of the things that Beijing does
18:34is to try to create the sense
18:37that the Communist Party's success
18:39is inevitable
18:40so come jump on the bandwagon
18:45they wanted to assemble
18:46as many world leaders as possible
18:49to essentially endorse Belt and Road
18:54I remember speaking to President Trump
18:56explaining that Belt and Road
18:58was actually a system
19:01designed to diminish
19:02the influence of the United States
19:05it was an extremely opaque system
19:10whereby governments would have
19:12to surrender sovereignty
19:14over critical infrastructure
19:16as collateral
19:18in case they weren't able
19:19to pay back debts
19:22and so it was really sort of
19:23a form of loan sharking
19:25on a global scale
19:26on a global scale
19:28Pottinger's line
19:29didn't go down well
19:30with the other attendees
19:33one of them was
19:34Kenya's president
19:35whose country
19:36had just that month
19:37opened a multi-billion dollar
19:39new railway
19:40largely financed by China
19:43Kenya took a big loan to build the standard gauge railway and it was never going to be easy paying
19:51it. But was there a Chinese debt trap? No. African countries are caught in a debt trap,
19:57but it's not of Chinese making. The predominant amount of money owed by African states is owed
20:05to Western governments and private banks. The Americans were uncomfortable with any
20:11Chinese initiative that looked as though it had a strategic dimension. And this clearly was a
20:17strategic project. It was about projecting Chinese influence, securing Chinese supply lines,
20:23and securing export routes as well. The same day that Xi was hosting his guests in Beijing,
20:32Trump's new trade representative was being sworn in.
20:38Robert Lighthizer had spent years accusing China of breaking trade rules.
20:42Thank you all very much for being here. I'm very grateful for your friendship.
20:46He quickly summoned top officials to the West Wing.
20:50The senior people were there. A lot of them were in the direction of, well, we have to
20:55have dialogue. We have to tell the Chinese what we want, all these kinds of things. You know,
21:00I said, well, you know, I don't agree with any of this. The Chinese game plan has been dialogue,
21:07dialogue, dialogue, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, and then don't do anything at all.
21:14Lighthizer's strategy was to tax goods coming to the US from China.
21:19But his plans ripped open divisions with the Wall Street faction in the White House.
21:25I wanted tariffs on as much as we can to change the economic relationship between the United
21:31States and China, to force companies to come back to the United States or to find other places to
21:36manufacture. But there was an organized group who's against tariffs.
21:43I thought there was more question to who we were hurting and who we were helping by putting tariffs on.
21:52Lighthizer started to get to the president and say, Mr. President, your voters, the people who trusted
21:59you, expect that this is going to get done. It's not getting done not because you don't want it to
22:05get done. It's not getting done because people on your team are deliberately obstructing your order
22:12to bring China to account for what it's done to the American people for 30 years.
22:17And the president said, I'm not going to let people delay anymore.
22:25Trump gave Lighthizer the green light to launch a major investigation into China's trade practices.
22:31Thank you very much, Ambassador Lighthizer.
22:34Especially claims it was forcing US companies to give up blueprints for their most valuable
22:39technology.
22:40We're going to be fulfilling another campaign promise by taking firm steps to ensure that we
22:46protect the intellectual property of American companies and very importantly of American workers.
22:53American companies were desperate to do business in China. And the Chinese would say, you can
22:59enter the Chinese market, but you have to allow us access to your proprietary technology. Well,
23:06when American companies did that, very quickly they found that that technology belonged to
23:11their Chinese partners. And then they would go flood the market with these products at a much
23:17cheaper rate, put American businesses out of business, and dominate the global supply chains.
23:25The investigation could pave the way for wide-ranging tariffs on China.
23:32Economists believe that tariffs are going to raise prices and lead to inflation.
23:37Even if you bought the idea, what's the alternative that we teach our children Chinese and tell them to
23:45prepare for a life of servitude? We have to realize there's this crisis and we have to take action to
23:52change. And if there's some small cost associated with it, the alternative is total defeat. And that's not an option.
24:05In Beijing, Xi was showing no sign of making concessions.
24:12Although China's phenomenal growth was slowing, his ambition remained resolute.
24:28In a three-hour speech to the annual party congress, he described 5,000 years of China's great
24:36imperial past, before the century of humiliation that started with the opium wars of the 19th century.
24:46Before British came to invade the open war, I'm talking about 1820s, 30s, Chinese economy 32.5% of global
24:58GDP.
24:59When communists took over 1949, Chinese economy less than 2% of global GDP. That is a freefall disaster.
25:08At the time Xi Jinping announced the China Dream, we are about 12 or 15% of GDP, which means
25:17if you compare with the 1830s, we still have a lot of room there.
25:25Three weeks later, Trump arrived in Beijing for what the Chinese were calling a state visit plus.
25:33With the threat of tariffs looming large, this was a chance for Xi to win round the US president.
25:41Xi wants to make it as spectacular as possible, for obvious reasons.
25:49Everybody knows that Trump likes spectacle.
25:55He likes, well, being treated like a king, maybe.
26:02We talked to President Trump about the images that Xi Jinping would try to create.
26:07He would try to make it seem like the leader of the free world, President Trump,
26:11was coming to Beijing to kowtow, you know, to the emperor, you know, Xi Jinping.
26:24Picture yourself as Nero, the emperor of Rome, and you want to impress somebody.
26:31What would you do?
26:33It was everything you can imagine.
26:39Everything from music to singing to dancing.
26:47They really pulled out all the stops and it was impressive.
26:55Perhaps most extraordinary, Trump was invited to dine in the Forbidden City.
27:04Forbidden City means forbidden, right? So historically, this is a residence of emperor.
27:13This is an extraordinary honour. Chinese are not even allowed to go.
27:19So it's quite amazing to treat Trump that way.
27:23That's something. We're having a great time. Thank you.
27:27I don't believe Putin even get that treatment.
27:31Earlier that day, Xi had even given Trump a personal tour.
27:36But not everyone was welcome.
27:40As President Trump was about to be escorted through the Forbidden City,
27:44before I understood what was happening, I was diverted before I could get into the gate.
27:52Matt Podger is like the man who knew too much.
27:54You know, and he really would make the Chinese leadership very uncomfortable.
27:59I mean, there's a guy who's fluent in Mandarin and knew the Chinese Communist Party so well.
28:05When we get to the Forbidden City, I'm looking around.
28:08Where's Matt Podger? He's not there.
28:10The one guy who can actually speak the language and know something about this system
28:15has somehow been kept out.
28:22The imperial setting was the perfect spot for Xi to give Trump an education
28:27on China's historic place in the world.
28:31And I guess the oldest culture, they say, is Egypt at 8,000.
28:38But in China, the culture has been changed.
28:41The history of the culture has changed.
28:43It's all from China.
28:44But the culture has not changed.
28:45The Chinese civilization is between China.
28:46So this is your original form of Wikipedia?
28:49Of course.
28:50It is a young people.
28:51Yes.
28:52These are the people of the Chinese.
28:54These are the people of the Chinese.
28:54And people like us, we have to be traced back to 5,000 years ago.
28:58We have to be traced back to 5,000 years ago.
28:59Red hair, yellow skin.
29:01We call ourselves the, uh, people going down from the dragon.
29:08That's good.
29:10Xi's charm offensive looked to be working
29:12as the leaders and their team sat down in the great hall of the people.
29:17Our meeting last night was absolutely terrific.
29:24Our dinner was beyond that.
29:27Then Trump turned to his team.
29:30The president, after the first two or three statements,
29:34asked me to address the, um, the trade issue.
29:38I didn't have a script.
29:40I didn't know for sure that I would be called on.
29:43Lighthizer is the, really the trade war warrior for many, many years.
29:48So Chinese know that.
29:50His basic argument is familiar,
29:52but the way he presented is quite, uh,
29:55uh, I would say quite aggressive, uh, from a Chinese point of view.
30:00Lighthizer couched his presentation around the practices of forcing the transfer of intellectual property.
30:08So he just went through many of these practices with such clarity.
30:12I think it was arresting to Xi Jinping, uh, and, and the other officials there.
30:18I basically made the argument that we were the victim here.
30:22It wasn't China, and it can't continue, and it won't continue.
30:27And, and I think that was a little befuddling, like, what's going on here?
30:35But the Chinese hosts weren't done yet.
30:39Trump had traveled to Beijing with dozens of American business leaders in tow.
30:44In front of the cameras, they signed more than $250 billion worth of deals with China.
30:55China was quite, uh, generous to really make all those things happen.
31:01It shows that China is really willing to collaborate with the U.S.
31:04Dallas, the president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, and Mr. Jia Baojun.
31:08That was really a big boost for President Trump,
31:11and he really, uh, had a big harvest for his first trip to China.
31:16Donald Trump wanted to show the American people that during his visit to China,
31:21he got something for, you know, America.
31:25And this was something really tangible and right in his wheelhouse.
31:30Now Trump had his chance to talk directly to the press.
31:34I don't blame China.
31:41After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country
31:48for the benefit of its citizens?
31:51I give China great credit.
31:55He turns to Xi Jinping, goes, for all this here, I don't blame you.
31:59I blame us.
32:01But in actuality, I do blame past administrations for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit
32:09to take place and to grow.
32:11It was very Trumpian, in that it was simultaneously gracious to the host, but also had a sharp edge to
32:19it.
32:19In spite of all the flattery and the rest, he was not going to back off his demands
32:24for a really significant shift in that economic relationship.
32:28When that shift did not materialize, President Trump resorted to a trade war.
32:34Here's what's on the power lunch menu.
32:36President Trump hitting China with $60 billion worth of tariffs, raising fears about a global trade war.
32:43In March 2018, Lighthizer's report was published.
32:46It says the economic harm to the U.S. of unfair trade practices on intellectual property is in the range
32:53of $50 billion.
32:54And so it plans to try to recoup some of that cost with these tariffs.
32:59Trump announced tariffs on Chinese exports, particularly those the U.S. said use stolen technology.
33:08China would respond in kind, sparking a tit-for-tat escalation that spiraled over the coming months.
33:14If they charge us, we charge them the same thing.
33:20That's the way it's got to be.
33:22Trump was smashing decades of Washington consensus on trade.
33:27Earlier that month, Gary Cohn resigned.
33:30The only thing the tariff was doing was acting as a consumption tax to the U.S. consumer that bought
33:41that good from China.
33:45I can remember talking with business leaders and investors and many folks assuring me that there's no way these tariffs
33:52could stay on more than three or four months because it would be too harmful to the U.S. economy.
33:58And I can remember telling folks that I think we're actually much more in a new normal.
34:04Just because they have a business model that works really well, that the rest of the world should just stay
34:10static so that they can benefit from that, isn't a realistic perspective to have.
34:16And that's tough to hear, particularly when you're a powerful company.
34:20You've been kind of a master of the universe, but that's the reality.
34:26Trump's team now had to face officials from Beijing.
34:30The Chinese really were taken aback.
34:33They didn't think that Trump would really go ahead with the tariffs.
34:38They had a sense for a long time that it was a bluff.
34:43You know, they had signed this $250 billion worth of deals just back in November.
34:48You know, that was a serious amount of money.
34:51And they thought, you know, they had done the necessary and didn't understand why, you know, it wasn't working.
35:01As America and China braced for what could be a costly trade war, Xi put on a show of strength.
35:10Within weeks of the tariffs being announced, he donned military fatigues to preside over a massive naval parade, the largest
35:18of its kind ever conducted by the Chinese.
35:22It took place in the South China Sea, a crucial shipping corridor where China was building artificial islands to back
35:29up its claims on the area.
35:32Claims rejected by most countries, including the U.S.
35:37He says he wants a modernized military by 2035.
35:41He wants a world-class military by 2049, which means pretty much he wants to displace the United States from
35:49the Indo-Pacific.
35:51They want to defend all the waters surrounding China and manage the trade and everything passing through them.
35:58This was China interrupting and trying to change international rules and norms that we felt that we couldn't tolerate.
36:07The situation was becoming more and more dangerous as U.S. ships and aircraft continued what they called freedom of
36:15navigation exercises.
36:38Tensions were high as world leaders arrived in Argentina for the annual G-20 summit.
36:44It would be Trump and Xi's first meeting since Beijing.
36:49The U.S. president had a new national security advisor.
36:54I thought this was obviously a significant opportunity to make points about things that concerned us about China's aggressive behavior
37:05along its periphery and talk about the big strategic issues.
37:09What Trump mostly wanted to talk about, though, was trade.
37:15By now, the U.S. had ramped up tariffs to hit $250 billion worth of Chinese goods.
37:24Trump was threatening to go even higher.
37:28But Bolton feared the prospect of a trade deal with China might soften Trump's resolve.
37:37The two leaders met for dinner on the sidelines of the summit.
37:42This was the first time I had seen them together.
37:45It was unnerving to watch Xi in a very systematic, thorough way advance what were clearly his well-thought-out
37:56objectives and to watch Trump wing it.
38:01The relationship is very special, the relationship that I have with President Xi, and I think that is going to
38:08be a very primary reason why we'll probably end up getting something.
38:13Xi had come to the meeting with a headline-grabbing pitch.
38:17If the U.S. would hold off further tariffs, China would commit to buying U.S. goods and services worth
38:24over a trillion dollars.
38:27Chinese site, for example, Walmart and other successful retailers, how they're successful because of Chinese made in China.
38:37So that is what the argument they are making, saying you might end up hurting yourself.
38:45I was worried throughout the dinner that we were basically going to agree to things.
38:49And indeed, Trump did make concessions in terms of not putting tariffs in place that he had threatened.
38:55So that we could have good trade discussions with China.
39:00A truce in the trade war was agreed.
39:06But just then, news came through that had the potential to undermine any goodwill.
39:12I hear my phone ringing, I look down and it's my colleague at the Justice Department.
39:18And I don't normally get calls from the Justice Department.
39:22And he informed me that they're going to exercise an arrest warrant against the chief financial officer of Huawei as
39:29she goes through at Vancouver Airport.
39:30I immediately think about how this is going to be interpreted as a deliberate snub and a deliberate affront to
39:39the Chinese counterparts and how this will throw a wrench into what the president is trying to achieve.
39:45And let's get back to the big story this morning, weighing on futures with big implications for the U.S.-China
39:50trade truce and relationship.
39:51Canada has arrested the CFO of Huawei, who also happens to be the daughter of the company's founder.
39:56Meng's charges were part of a sweeping set of criminal charges by the Trump administration unveiled yesterday,
40:02accusing the company of stealing trade secrets and violating sanctions.
40:06We all hear the news, we were surprised, because while we're shaking hands on the table, the U.S. is
40:13kicking us back under the table.
40:17We knew for some time before that Meng was coming, it was imperative that not leak out.
40:25John Bolton had been told that Meng's arrest was imminent just before the dinner with Xi.
40:31He decided not to inform Trump until it was made public.
40:36On the flight back to Washington, I explained what had happened in Canada and what would flow from that.
40:43He didn't really have much of a reaction to Meng's arrest when I briefed him on it.
40:49Officially, the Chinese government isn't directly linking Meng's arrest to the trade negotiations just yet.
40:56But unofficially in the state media, this is being seen as a political decision.
41:06Trump had a Christmas dinner in the East Room for his top White House staff.
41:11And at one point, out of nowhere, he said,
41:15by the way, why did we arrest Meng, the Ivanka Trump of China?
41:20I thought maybe first I would say, you didn't tell me that Ivanka was a spy and an agent of
41:27our government.
41:27But I didn't, fortunately for me, probably.
41:32Telecom's giant Huawei was a shining example of Xi's vision for China to dominate technologies of the future.
41:39It had become a battleground with the Americans, who placed restrictions on the company,
41:46citing fears China could use its equipment for spying.
41:51Meng's high-profile arrest only raised the tensions.
42:14With relations between the superpowers deteriorating, other countries were finding themselves caught in the crossfire.
42:20And not just over Huawei.
42:24The British Chancellor got a taste of this when he addressed that year's Belt and Road Forum.
42:31The speech lauded the scale and ambition of the project and the Chinese delivery of it,
42:38but said explicitly that if this is going to work,
42:41it's got to be very careful about the debt burdens that recipient countries are taking on.
42:48I was invited to the heads of state lunch, which was hosted by President Xi.
42:54And he just lashed into me, saying this was none of my business,
42:59and the Belt and Road was China's project,
43:04and China would run it in the way that China chose to run it.
43:07So it was quite a moment being given a finger-wagging lecture by President Xi.
43:16Returning to London, Hammond would find that the fallout wasn't over.
43:22So I get a call from the White House.
43:25I get the Deputy National Security Advisor on the phone,
43:29and he says,
43:31we'd like to talk to you about your speech.
43:33We had seen a speech that Philip Hammond had just delivered
43:37that it appeared to be an endorsement of China's debt-trap diplomacy.
43:42So it was a bit cheeky,
43:45but one of my colleagues from the State Department
43:47printed out Hammond's speech on a poster board
43:51with some of the key phrases that looked like they'd been taken straight from Beijing's propaganda highlighted.
43:58A meeting was set up, and somebody came over and arrived in my office in number 11.
44:05He laid them out in my office in Downing Street along the wall
44:12so that all the text of the speech was there,
44:15and I was asked by the Americans to justify the...
44:19to explain my thinking behind the less critical parts of that speech.
44:27I'd said from the outset,
44:30the UK cannot be in a position of having to choose
44:34between the world's largest economy and the world's second largest economy,
44:38and that was what I told the Americans.
44:41The response I got was,
44:43that is exactly what the President of the United States wants you to do.
44:48He wants you to choose, and he wants you to choose America.
44:56Trump now ramped up the pressure even more.
44:59He signed an executive order preparing the ground
45:02for a total ban of Huawei equipment in U.S. systems.
45:07And the Americans set to work persuading other countries to follow suit,
45:12beginning with their closest ally.
45:17We had to start with the UK because in many ways,
45:20the UK's position as sort of a cyber security and telecommunications power,
45:26GCHQ, is seen as sort of world class.
45:28And that was allowing everybody else to essentially point to and say,
45:33well, GCHQ says it's okay,
45:34so why are you, America, making a big deal about this?
45:42The position of the British government
45:44was very strongly against making any significant changes to Huawei,
45:50and we met with a lot of resistance.
45:52Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer,
45:54and others were very strong on that.
45:59The message from the White House was,
46:02we want Huawei out, get it out,
46:05and tell these Europeans that they've got to toe the line.
46:09The Chinese had made this a totemic issue,
46:13that if we cut Huawei off,
46:15there would be significant trade and other consequences.
46:21So we're very much squeezed in the middle.
46:26As Trump arrived for a long-promised state visit,
46:30the Brits hoped to convince the Americans
46:32that they could keep Huawei out of the most sensitive parts of their network.
46:39Our security experts essentially said,
46:41we've engineered the systems in a way
46:43that the Americans are overstating the risk.
46:47We had very deep concerns
46:50and plenty of evidence that there were back doors,
46:54there were software and hardware vulnerabilities
46:57that would make it fairly easy for data
47:01to be siphoned out of those networks.
47:04They thought they could protect telecommunications in Britain,
47:07and we simply didn't agree with that.
47:10There was this tension between our security experts.
47:14Ours were clear that we could manage any risk from Huawei.
47:19It was never in the core of our infrastructure,
47:20only in the periphery.
47:23And they didn't agree.
47:25Our main point is that this is not a technical discussion.
47:30This is a policy discussion, right?
47:32We felt that they simply did not want to re-examine the decision
47:36because changing their decision that they had made before
47:40would likely entail retaliation by Beijing.
47:45We explained to Trump how our network
47:47was configured differently from the American network,
47:50that we were very confident that what we had was a robust system,
47:55but he was not listening.
47:57In fact, most of the time when you engaged with the president,
48:01there was no sense that he was actually listening
48:04to what anybody else was saying.
48:05He was simply preparing for the next sentence
48:09that he was going to say.
48:12We said to each other that this is a foretaste, Huawei.
48:15We're going to be here a lot in the future.
48:18We're going to find plenty of issues
48:20where the Chinese are squeezing us from one side
48:22and the Americans from the other.
48:24Not just the UK, but all the middle-ranking powers.
48:31The Brits stood firm on Huawei for now.
48:35It was some of Trump's aides who worried their boss
48:38might not stick to his guns.
48:42I felt that it was important to impress on Trump
48:46that if we were going to take strong measures against Huawei,
48:49this was not something to give away later.
48:52This had to be the beginning of a strong and consistent policy
48:56because to Trump, everything is negotiable.
48:59Everything is a bargaining chip.
49:04While Trump was in the UK,
49:07in Hong Kong, thousands joined a vigil
49:10to mark 30 years since China's deadly crackdown
49:13on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.
49:18The vigil took place in the midst of a growing wave of protests
49:22against a new law
49:23that would make extradition to mainland China easier.
49:28Normally, every fifth anniversary of Tiananmen,
49:31the White House would put out a statement
49:33on behalf of the president.
49:34And I had given Trump a draft statement
49:38that would commemorate the 30th anniversary.
49:41And Trump said, I'm not going to put it out.
49:43And I said, but we always put it out every five years.
49:47And if you don't put it out,
49:48it will look like we're not concerned
49:50about what happened to Tiananmen
49:52or what it represents for the future of China and Hong Kong.
49:55And he said, I don't care.
49:58Trump sees international relations
50:00through the prism of his personal relations.
50:03He thought Xi would take offense
50:05if we put out a statement by the president on Tiananmen,
50:08and he wasn't going to do it.
50:12Within weeks, as the protests in Hong Kong grew,
50:16the authorities responded with brutal force.
50:25It was against this backdrop
50:26that Trump would next meet Xi
50:28at that year's G20 summit.
50:37The U.S. president was facing further calls
50:40to confront him about Hong Kong
50:41and China's wider human rights record,
50:44including the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.
50:48As he landed, he took a call from the Speaker of the House.
50:54He said, well, since you're at the G20,
50:56you're in Asia.
50:57Isn't it remarkable what's happening in Hong Kong?
51:01Millions of people are in the streets
51:03demonstrating for democracy.
51:07I'm sure G20 won't say anything about that
51:10because she is there.
51:13But I think it would be great
51:14if you could say something to him
51:16that the House and the Senate,
51:19Democrats and Republicans,
51:22have voted in favor of the Uyghurs.
51:27There's always a summit dinner
51:29at these G20 summits,
51:31and typically it's just the leader of each country
51:34and their spouse if they're there.
51:37One of my staff talked to the U.S. interpreter
51:41who was with Trump
51:42who reported that he had a conversation
51:44with Xi Jinping
51:46and talked about the Uyghurs,
51:48and Xi defended against charges
51:50that these are essentially concentration camps.
51:53And he said, the Uyghurs appreciate it.
51:56They liked it.
51:57It was a good thing to do.
51:58And Trump basically said,
51:59well, then go ahead and do it.
52:03Next day, he calls me back and he said,
52:06I mentioned Muslims to President Xi,
52:10and he said they like being in those labor camps.
52:19China's record on human rights
52:20was never going to be top of Trump's agenda.
52:24Trade negotiations had ground to a halt,
52:27and election year was fast approaching.
52:30A trade deal with China
52:32could be a vote winner
52:33in the manufacturing
52:34and agricultural heartlands of America.
52:38You know, we've had an excellent relationship,
52:42but we want to do something
52:44that will even it up with respect to trade.
52:47I think it's something
52:48that's actually very easy to do.
52:51Trump basically said to Xi,
52:53look, I want to win this election,
52:54and I need the farmers' vote,
52:56and you can help me out on that.
52:59And indeed, the trade negotiation
53:01then turned into,
53:02how many tons of soy beans
53:04are they going to buy next year?
53:07At that point,
53:09the trade is mostly focused
53:11on Chinese buying things.
53:13OK.
53:14On a massive scale.
53:17The international situation
53:17and the US has been a huge change.
53:22But the basic fact
53:24has never changed.
53:25That is, the US has been a good deal.
53:28It has been a great deal.
53:30Xi Jinping had great skill
53:32in flattering Trump,
53:34and Trump responded
53:35as he often did
53:37with flattery of his own.
53:40So he took to calling Xi king.
53:45And in Osaka,
53:46it got even worse.
53:48He told him at one point,
53:49you're the greatest leader
53:50in contemporary Chinese history.
53:53And 30 seconds later,
53:54he said,
53:54you're the greatest leader
53:55in all of Chinese history.
53:57So we waited to see
53:58how Xi would respond to Trump.
54:03But he didn't call him
54:04the greatest leader
54:04in all American history.
54:06He just pocketed it
54:07and the conversation went on.
54:19At home, Xi appeared
54:21more powerful than ever.
54:23Later that year,
54:25he took center stage
54:26as the Chinese Communist Party
54:28celebrated 70 years of rule in China.
54:32A statement of power
54:34in the face of the Hong Kong protests.
54:59Unlike Trump,
55:01Xi didn't have to worry
55:02about elections.
55:05In fact,
55:07China had abolished term limits,
55:09meaning he could now remain
55:10president for life.
55:14And when it came
55:15to negotiating with Trump,
55:17the Chinese were increasingly confident
55:19that by playing the long game,
55:21they would ultimately win out.
55:24China understood Trump's way
55:27of operating
55:28as a professional wrestler.
55:32Start opening sabot,
55:34it's always outrageous,
55:37frightening.
55:38If you chicken out,
55:40then he will push even more.
55:42If you stand for,
55:43if you know you have capacity
55:45to stand up,
55:46he will come down.
55:49While Xi was parading
55:50his military might,
55:52his negotiators
55:53were putting the final touches
55:55to a trade deal with Trump.
55:57It was optimistically named
55:59the Phase One Agreement.
56:01Trump would sign it
56:03with China's vice premier
56:04to much fanfare.
56:06The U.S. agreed
56:08to ease tariffs on China.
56:11In return,
56:12China pledged to buy
56:13hundreds of billions of dollars
56:15of U.S. goods.
56:17But Trump didn't get
56:18the major concessions
56:20on China's trade practices
56:21he talked about
56:22on coming to office.
56:24It's a relief
56:25from the Chinese side
56:26because we had a very,
56:28we have a tension,
56:29you know.
56:31And January 2020,
56:33it's less than one year
56:34ahead of the general election.
56:36We believe we would have
56:37a relatively stable
56:38bilateral relations
56:39in that year
56:40and if President Trump won the election
56:43paved the way
56:44for the second term.
56:48It's important to remind yourself
56:50that it's not possible
56:52to have an agreement
56:55between the United States
56:56and China
56:57that's going to resolve
56:58the problem
56:59of a Marxist-Leninist country
57:01that wants to be
57:02the number one country
57:02in the world.
57:03It's like you can't imagine
57:05an agreement
57:06between the United States
57:07or the West
57:09and Soviet Union
57:10that would have resolved
57:11the fact that they want
57:12to take over the world
57:13and we don't want them to, right?
57:15Today we take
57:17a momentous step,
57:19one that has never
57:20been taken before
57:21with China.
57:22But what these agreements
57:23can do is stop movement
57:24towards a hot war,
57:25which would be a catastrophe.
57:27Nobody's ever seen
57:28anything like it.
57:29This is the biggest deal
57:30there is anywhere
57:32in the world by far.
57:34Trump had his deal.
57:37But as he talked it up,
57:38the world was about
57:39to be hit by a catastrophe
57:41that few saw coming.
57:43One that would bring
57:44the US and China
57:45closer than ever
57:46to a new Cold War.
57:51China plague.
57:52That's where it comes from.
57:53They say,
57:54please don't mention China.
57:55I say, why?
57:55That's where it comes from.
57:57I remember President Trump
57:59telling me that
58:00if he did 100 trade deals
58:02with China,
58:04it still wouldn't make up
58:06for the losses
58:07that COVID had inflicted
58:09on the United States.
58:10In the next episode,
58:13as a global pandemic
58:15rocks the US-China relationship,
58:17the race for technological
58:18supremacy ramps up.
58:22And the stakes are raised
58:23as one of America's
58:25leading figures
58:26crosses a Chinese red line.
58:29You have to understand
58:30whether it's going
58:31to Tiananmen Square
58:31or going to Taiwan.
58:33You cannot let
58:35somebody else decide
58:37where you're going.
58:39This is the closest moment
58:41of a military encounter.
58:45My understanding
58:46is that 20% of the Chinese
58:47did not sleep at that night.
58:49She's going to tell us
58:51where we can go?
58:52I don't think so.
58:57And you can watch
58:58the next episode
58:59right now on BBC iPlayer.
59:02Also there,
59:03AI Confidential
59:04with Hannah Fry.
59:05Extraordinary human stories
59:07from the high-tech frontier.
59:09Watch now.
59:10Inside a publishing scandal
59:12with a new podcast
59:13on sounds,
59:14Secrets of the Salt Path.
59:16Listen now.
59:19I'm going to tell you
59:20I'm going to tell you
59:21I'm going to tell you
59:22I'm going to tell you
59:23I'm going to tell you
59:23I'm going to tell you
59:23I'm going to tell you
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