00:10hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show where we want
00:16you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day the national security
00:20council held an emergency meeting this week to discuss the war on iran and they warned that
00:26malaysia may have to brace for the economic fallout of a prolonged conflict in west asia where rising
00:33oil prices and supply disruptions could translate into higher food costs at home so just how exposed
00:40is malaysia's food systems and are we prepared for what's coming well joining me on the show to help
00:47me think this through is dr serena che omar who is the ceo of pnb research institute which is a
00:54policy
00:54research think tank funded by pemodalan national berhad she has long research policies related to
01:01food and agriculture and sustainability dr serena it's so good to have you back on the show today
01:08but we are talking about something quite serious and i'm curious to know where you see the risks
01:14for malaysia with the continued disruptions of the strait of humus how might that translate to
01:21higher food prices in malaysia is that something that we should be concerned about well melissa i
01:28mean not just the straits of humus but the whole war in general um if it prolongs we do see
01:35that
01:35there's going to be an impact on global food prices um all around the world and malaysia is likely going
01:41to be impacted as well um as you know the oil prices has gone up above 100 usd per barrel
01:47uh and
01:48with that always usually what follows true is the increase in fertilizer prices um and with that uh
01:55as fertilizer prices goes up as we are going to expect uh food prices is likely to go up now
02:02with
02:03malaysia uh the interesting thing is we both import and produce our own food so when we look at the
02:09angle of our own production we rely on fertilizers right and just my conversations with on the ground
02:17in 2023 the price of a 50 kilogram nitrogen is about less than 100 ringgit this year it has just
02:25before
02:25raya it has gone up to 300 ringgit for a 50 kilo bag and it's expected to be above 350
02:32after raya so with
02:34that we are expecting at least local products the prices are going to go up and because the global
02:40situation is also happening we are going to expect imports of products especially with the full fuel
02:47prices so transports right supply chain and and the moving of food coming into malaysia is also going to
02:53be more expensive so you've got this double whammy melissa whereby both local products as well as
02:59imported products is going to start to be more and more uh expensive unfortunately okay so so we know
03:05the the the crisis or food prices will uh increase uh if that's coming but uh this there are steps
03:13to
03:14be taken to prepare for that and i think one of the suggestions that the agriculture and food security
03:19minister had mentioned was to call for households to grow their own vegetables um dr serena what do you
03:26think about this is this is this a practical solution is it something that is in fact scalable
03:31okay that's an excellent question and a lot of people reacted to that both either positively or
03:37negatively and and the biggest reaction is what we are expecting us to start growing food um how is
03:44that going to solve national food security issue now this is a very important um topic melissa and i'm
03:51actually a strong proponent of growing your own food i'm actually going to write a piece on ulam and
03:56how you can just grow them on the balcony so how is this going to solve food security now when
04:01we talk
04:02about growing your own food we're not talking about growing tomatoes potatoes carrots and onions
04:08because these are some types of foods that don't grow well in malaysia and even if you try to grow
04:13them
04:13it's just not economically viable and we do not have the skill sets to grow them it they require a
04:19huge amount of
04:20technical expertise especially tomatoes cheese um cabbages uh that just you know it's just not
04:27practical however melissa there are actually certain type of uh vegetables that just naturally grows well
04:35in malaysia that they're made to grow in malaysia and these are things that if you were to grow even
04:40in your balcony your small square foot of balcony you can provide sufficient amount of vegetables
04:46vegetables for your household's need and what are these vegetables so what i'm trying to say is that
04:51not all vegetables are made equal right so the things that you can grow really well in malaysia are like
04:58ulam raja daun selo uh pegaga or pennywort um you have the lemongrass you have the chili padi so these
05:07are
05:07things that you can grow that requires very little technical expertise very little pesticides and and uh
05:13fertilizers and what i what's important is the economic viability that means if i were to grow
05:20um it would cost me less than if i were to buy it from the shop so from that angle
05:26from a household
05:27perspective it is a pretty good idea and uh it is something that is doable so uh and i myself
05:33grow them
05:33and i can tell you i have a pegaga at home i have ulam raja and if we were to
05:38follow the ministry of
05:39health uh recommendation of suku suku separo right one quarter protein one quarter uh carbohydrate half
05:46vegetables and fruits right that's the half plate if you were to have even just pegaga ulam uh down
05:52raja uh ula apa tu uh selo ulam raja uh you can make that so in that sense it is
05:59fairly a practical
06:01solution now does that solve the whole food security issue of malaysia no it doesn't because we still have
06:08the carbohydrates we still have the proteins we still have to make sure that malaysians are eating
06:13well but does it elevate a situation where we have vegetables that's very vulnerable to food price
06:21changes does it help the household i believe that it does melissa yeah i mean you named all my favorite
06:27ulam there right there but you're right i mean it it solves a part of the problem but not the
06:34whole
06:34problem and if we were to zoom out and look at malaysia's entire food um ecosystem are we resilient
06:41enough to withstand those economic shocks or any of the supply disruptions that could lead to food
06:48inflation um i guess my question is whether as a country do we know or do we have that right
06:53balance
06:54between local production and importing foods to absorb some of these pressures right so if we we
07:03are a country that fully import all our food even though we have good soil we have land to grow
07:09it
07:09i'd be worried right so that that's one end of the situation and we're not we are producing some food
07:15we're not producing some now uh we do have some balance so at at the overall largest scale of things
07:22we are i can say somewhat balanced so that's good um however uh melissa the issue is what about the
07:29individual so in in agriculture is about the individual uh food items right so let's look
07:35at vegetables some items we fully import such as onions such as cabbages uh whereas some food items
07:42we uh can grow ourselves and we have very high self-sufficiency such as um water spinach spinach
07:49mustard green and i think that's a healthy balance the issue is that the products that we produce fully in
07:57malaysia it's a problem if we produce them all in one area so right now we know that we produce
08:03most of
08:04our vegetables in uh cameron highlands we know that we produce most of our rice in the northern states of
08:10malaysia now that's a risk because one flood one natural disaster one issue and we can potentially have
08:18a supply problem um and or a price problem so my recommendation is yes we can have some you know
08:25we have
08:25that balance of import and local and whereas when it's in local we got to make sure we have not
08:31just
08:31one location but at least two to three now i understand that the unique economies of scale that
08:37means you need to have one area where it's very much targeted for a certain type of growing condition
08:42so that we can be able to sell at a competitive price but not just one location at least two
08:48to three
08:48and i think that's that's a good balance that our country can have yeah and that's an excellent
08:53point particularly as right now we're facing a heat wave that struck the north and so the idea of
09:00diversifying the locations of our food production is really important can you talk a little bit
09:07about the when you're expecting to see the impact because not all vegetables and fruits all grow at the
09:16same time that takes some there's a different cycle of production so can you talk a little bit about
09:22the cycle of food and when you expect that to be the the for the impact to materialize for the
09:30end
09:30consumer yeah so this is a very important concept and this is something that we need malaysians to
09:35understand because uh that it manages our expectation and our our um what you call it how we manage in
09:44terms of the policy for the country now organic things are biological right melissa so nothing grows
09:50the same uh how long it takes for a cow to grow to maturity or a durian tree is totally
09:56different from a
09:57bean sprout or a mustard green plant right so vegetables normally have very short life cycle
10:04very fast very quick within months you can harvest them you can grow them now because they're very short
10:10they're actually very quick to respond to shocks fertilizer price shocks supply shocks weather
10:17shocks um global uh fuel prices fertilizer prices so that's why always when there is a situation that's
10:25happening you hear the vegetables coming in first and that's exactly what just happened uh the last few
10:30days where we got the news uh from camera highland farmers that expect prices of vegetables to go up so
10:36they're always the first they're the first line second would be the cereals because they take a little
10:41bit longer and so you've got the the the corn the rice the wheat that grows a little bit longer
10:48so
10:48you'll see them coming out a little bit later once that comes up the end they become feed to animals
10:54especially uh poultry so you then start saying poultry prices going up a little bit later um down the line
11:01and finally you have fruits fruit trees and um red meats that's a bit more later um so what you
11:08have
11:09is that longer term cycle they tend to be able to average out short-term shocks but these shorter cycle
11:15crops they tend to respond a bit more quickly so we have this this a range of responses and that's
11:22important
11:22and i want people to understand that because it doesn't mean that everything's gonna wham and bam and slam
11:28us in one shot uh it's usually in in phases um so yes okay so so i think we just
11:36have to as
11:36consumers have to understand the the time lag for the the impact of this to materialize dr serena
11:44che omar they're from pnb research institute we're going to take a quick break and we'll be back with
11:49more on this topic make sure you stay tuned
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