00:00Let's talk to Dr. Andrew Sanders, the Senior Lecturer in Politics at De Montfort University in Leicester in the UK.
00:06Andrew, President Trump has gone from threatening major strikes to signalling constructive talks.
00:13What do you think explains this shift?
00:16I think it's a combination of things.
00:19We've seen, obviously, rapid increase in the price of oil and the impact of prices at the pump,
00:26in addition to prices elsewhere, combined with the cost-of-living crisis that we're experiencing in the UK as well.
00:32That's obviously brought a lot of pressure on President Trump.
00:35We're in the midst of an election campaign ahead of the November midterm elections,
00:40and clearly a number of people who are allied to President Trump across the US are feeling the pressure from
00:46their constituents as well.
00:48I think also, more broadly, there's a little bit of international diplomatic efforts going on,
00:53pressure from allies across the Middle East to try and come to some sort of a conclusion.
00:58Obviously, continuing violence is in nobody's best interests, and I think that those all factor in.
01:03Despite this talk of diplomacy, the strikes and counter-strikes continue.
01:10How dangerous is this dual-track situation?
01:14Yeah, I think that it's troubling that the violence continues.
01:18Obviously, we need to remember that this isn't just a situation between the US and Iran.
01:23The Israelis are involved as well.
01:25There's been incidents in Lebanon, and clearly there's a lot going on that comes from Tel Aviv.
01:31I think that the US will try to bring Israel into the same frame of thinking,
01:39but we need to remember that the Israeli perspective on Iran is quite different from the US perspective.
01:44From the US perspective, as I mentioned, there's a lot to do with the economic impact,
01:49but from the Israeli perspective, a lot of people there perceive this as a national security threat in a very
01:56deep and meaningful way,
01:57and I think it's important to remember that.
01:59So, certainly, diplomacy will have to include all parties in the Middle East,
02:03and one would hope that that will continue over the coming days to try and reach a conclusion.
02:07Given what you've just said, then, is it realistically in Washington's gift alone to bring about peace?
02:16I certainly wouldn't have said so.
02:17We've seen Pakistani officials and Saudi officials have both made statements to various effects with regards to the ongoing conflict,
02:27but we're clearly going to need to see participation from allies of both the US and Israel and Iran across
02:35the Middle East
02:36coming to the table and trying to figure out a path through this.
02:39So, it is going to be complicated, but I think it is also necessary.
02:43I think that, as I said, this is in nobody's interest to continue the violence,
02:47and hopefully those diplomatic efforts can reach a conclusion.
02:52If the violence does continue and the path to peace proves more complicated,
02:56I wonder how close we are to a broader regional war involving more Middle Eastern countries.
03:04We would certainly hope that it doesn't reach that situation,
03:09but we can't ignore the possibility that that is one potential outcome.
03:15I think that the partners in the European Union are certainly looking at this as diplomatically as they can,
03:23but in some situations, the escalation of violence occurs.
03:29There's always a chance that a stray missile or a stray drone could cause some sort of damage that provokes
03:35a reaction,
03:36and then things can escalate from there.
03:38So, it is important that those talks continue and that all sides and the intermediaries understand where each other is
03:45in this.
03:45Andrew, thank you for that.
03:47Dr. Andrew Sanders, Senior Lecturer in Politics at De Montfort University in the UK.
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