00:00There is a lot of speculation right now, and I want to stress the difference between reality, speculation and perception.
00:05This is about speculation and perception.
00:08A lot of speculation at the moment in this market is some people have an edge that others don't.
00:12They have an inside line on what's going to happen and other people don't know.
00:16That there will be statements coming out that they're not aware of.
00:18And when you get to that position, I wonder if we have a reduction right now in trust
00:23and that there is a lot of speculation that we are at least perceiving that some people have an edge
00:30that we don't.
00:31And I want to understand whether that leads to a reduction in liquidity in this market.
00:35Because if I'm a financial market participant at the moment, and I begin to believe that someone might have an
00:41edge that I don't,
00:42do I really want to take risk in that kind of market?
00:45Do I really want to step in and put my money to work?
00:48Right. Well, certainly you're alluding to what transpired yesterday.
00:53Just prior to the president's announcement, which was, I would argue, very unfortunate
00:57and certainly didn't instill trust in myself or the market.
01:00And if it were some sort of communication that occurred within the administration
01:06prior to the president's announcement that there was going to be a five-day hiatus,
01:11we saw significant selling of crude futures just before that announcement,
01:17just before we saw crude prices falter.
01:20We saw a significant purchase of S&P futures on the upside with the idea that the market was going
01:27to blow off top in a positive way.
01:30That was an embarrassing moment, potentially, if in fact, as an American,
01:35if in fact that was something that could have been avoided.
01:39Perhaps, however, there was a communication had across our allies.
01:44And perhaps some of these actions occurred from participants in the Middle East rather than within the administration.
01:51So I want to be super cautious about pointing fingers at anyone on that front.
01:56But it was highly suspicious.
01:57So I want to be super cautious.
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