00:00I'm going to tell people right now, people are going to zig, I'm going to zag.
00:05Everybody's looking at that 161.5 and saying, here we go, track meet, up and down.
00:10And then I'm like, all right, let's see.
00:12St. Louis, six of the last eight opponents scored under 80.
00:16Michigan, last two over 80.
00:19Before that, five out of six below 80.
00:22And then you look at defensive efficiencies, two and 35.
00:25Effective field goal percentage, defense, three and one.
00:27This is naturally, folks.
00:28Defensive rebounding percentage, 49 and 40.
00:32Styles make fights.
00:33But sometimes when you have two styles that are really similar and can score a lot,
00:38you may have to go the other way because now you have to find a way to get stops.
00:41I think that's a really, really high total.
00:44And I have a feeling that that game is going to be played in the 60s or 70s
00:48and get underneath that 161.5.
00:51Man, you know what, JY?
00:52Let's stay there.
00:53Then again, we'll blend a little bit of this recap and preview for people
00:56on this Saturday morning.
00:58I entered into the game thinking, man, does Michigan get on a bit of a run scoring 100,
01:04right?
01:04The best version of Michigan was able to score 100.
01:06It felt like each and every game.
01:08The more I dove into it, that's not what I was anticipating here.
01:11And it actually got to the point where I'm rolling with St. Louis plus the 12.5.
01:17For me, a lot of it's about Michigan, but I don't want to push St. Louis to the side.
01:23But here is what I have seen with the Michigan Wolverines this season.
01:26Is they are very streaky against the spread.
01:32And this is a team who has now lost six consecutive games against the number.
01:40Six.
01:41Did not cover against Iowa.
01:43Did not cover against Michigan State.
01:45Unless you were able to get a nine and a half.
01:47I know that one was close.
01:48But in that Big Ten tournament, they laid double digits against Ohio State, win by four.
01:54Wisconsin, win by three.
01:55And laid a four and a half number to Purdue and lost it outright.
01:58And I understand against Howard, there was a moment it looked like they might cover,
02:02despite only having a four-point halftime lead, but they didn't.
02:05And in fact, they really didn't cover by about a ten-point window there.
02:09This Wolverines team, when they, man, when they get it, it gets worrisome.
02:14And I think if you're the other teams here, you got to hope someone takes advantage.
02:21Because let me just, in a world where Michigan today wins no cover, next round they just play,
02:29let's just call it Texas Tech or Alabama.
02:31You know what, we won't even pick the team.
02:33They win by 25, he goes, uh-oh, uh-oh, it's Vegas all over again.
02:39And they just start winning games by 20, right?
02:42There, I think the way that St. Louis offense looked, coach, against Georgia,
02:48I think they come out fearless and guns blazing.
02:52I wouldn't be surprised they come out, win a race to 10, right?
02:57Get themselves an early lead, and we've got a dogfight for 40 minutes on our hands.
03:03And I think when you look at that St. Louis offense, if you're Dusty May, you're like,
03:09holy smokes, we got to slow them down.
03:12Like, we got to make this more of a half-court game.
03:14And St. Louis is so dynamic offensively in what they do and how they play.
03:20If you take away Howard, right?
03:22If you talk about, like, some of the high-level teams in the Big Ten that made the tournament, right?
03:28Just go back a couple of weeks.
03:3072 versus Purdue.
03:3268 versus Wisconsin.
03:33Obviously, that winning shot at the buzzer.
03:3671 versus Ohio State, right?
03:38Michigan State 90, but then it's 71 Iowa.
03:42Throw away Illinois because they play fast, right?
03:44So, the last couple of weeks, the 63 against Duke, Kevin, their offense may have peaked a little too early.
03:52And now they're coming back to the pack a little bit.
03:55So, if you combine the offensive efficiency of St. Louis and the fact that they can really score in the
04:02half-court,
04:02if you take the look at the fact that you're getting a little bit of regression, I think, with Michigan
04:07in regard to their scoring,
04:09now they've got to play games closer to the vest and lean on the defense.
04:15So, basically, Kevin and I are giving you the – here we go again.
04:19We're giving it to you a different way.
04:20Look at this way with Michigan in regards to them not covering the spread but slowing the game down and
04:26go under 161.5.
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