00:00The rate is – you can characterize it as in the high end of neutral, or you can
00:03characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive.
00:08No one knows for sure, but it's in that range where it's somewhere around the borderline
00:13between restrictive and not.
00:15Remember that a big part of the disinflation we're looking for is just the runoff of – when
00:22tariffs are put into place, of course, what they do is they raise prices to some extent.
00:27To the extent those prices are – the tariffs are paid by consumers on a one-time basis.
00:33And we're waiting for that process.
00:36It takes 8, 9, 10, 11 months a year to go through the system.
00:41And we're waiting for the tariffs, which were put in place over the course of the middle
00:46part and later last year.
00:48We're waiting for that to go through the system so that goods inflation will return closer
00:53to what it's always been.
00:55I mean, it used to be – for many, many years, it was negative, and then, you know,
00:59the year before tariffs came in, it was zero, and it's running at like 2 percent now.
01:03So that's kind of – goods inflation is running at 2 percent.
01:08So that's not coming from standard Phillips curve restrictive – you know, restrictive policy.
01:15It's coming from the runoff of a one-time thing.
01:19We also think it's important, though, to keep policy either mildly restrictive or,
01:23you know, close to that, but not too restrictive because of the weakness in the – the downside
01:28risk in the labor market.
01:29We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market are to
01:34the downside, which would call for lower rates, and the risks to inflation are to the upside,
01:39which would call for higher rates, or not cutting anyway.
01:41So we're in a difficult situation, and we feel like we're – our framework calls on
01:46us to balance the risks, and we feel like where we are now is just kind of on that borderline,
01:51the higher borderline of restrictive versus not restrictive.
01:57We feel like that's the right place to be.
01:58We feel like that's the right place to be.
01:58So that's why we feel like when I algun time a little bit of a stroke, the faster value
01:58could be nuanced, and when it comes in, also.
01:59However, that's where we still have the right place to focus on our of this new
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