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00:00Director Gabbard, the floor is yours.
00:03Thank you, Chairman Cotton, Vice Chair Warner, members of the committee.
00:07Good morning.
00:08I'm here today to present the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment,
00:12joined by the directors of the CIA, FBI, DIA, and NSA.
00:18Before I continue, on behalf of the intelligence community,
00:21I want to extend our thanks to General Hartman for his 37 years of service in uniform
00:27and closing out his 37 years with tremendous leadership of the NSA.
00:33This briefing is being provided in accordance with ODNI's statutory responsibility.
00:38I'd like to remind those who are watching what I am briefing here today
00:42conveys the intelligence community's assessment of the threats facing U.S. citizens,
00:46our homeland, and our interests, not my personal views or opinions.
00:52In this assessment, we're following the structure of priorities that were laid out
00:56in the President's national security strategy,
00:58starting with threats to our homeland and then shifting to global risks.
01:04The defense of our homeland is of the utmost importance to the American people,
01:08and efforts by this administration have shown over the last year
01:12the results of bolstering homeland defense in the security of the American people.
01:17For example, the strict enforcement of U.S. policies at the U.S.-Mexico border and regionally
01:23have served as a deterrent, drastically reducing illegal immigration.
01:28Based on Customs and Border Patrol data, January 2026's monthly encounters are down 83.8 percent
01:34compared to January 2025.
01:38Encounters declined at 79 percent compared to 2024.
01:43The drivers of migration are likely to continue.
01:46Potential worsening instability in countries like Cuba and Haiti risk-triggering migration surges,
01:51and smugglers who have long operated as transnational criminal organizations continue to view chaos
01:58as an opportunity for profit, and will continue to look to profit from illegal immigration flows.
02:05These transnational criminal organizations continue to pose a daily and direct threat to the health and safety
02:11of millions of U.S. citizens, primarily and directly by producing and trafficking in illegal drugs.
02:18Under President Trump's leadership, fentanyl overdose deaths have seen a 30 percent decrease
02:23from September 2024 to September 2025.
02:27President Trump's aggressive efforts to more directly and actively target these transnational criminal organizations
02:33and reduce the inflow of fentanyl precursors has already had a significant impact, which is likely to continue.
02:41We've seen fentanyl potency also decrease, likely due to disruptions to the production supply chain.
02:48U.S. efforts to work with China and India to halt the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals to North America
02:54are demonstrating some improvement, but there is more work to be done as, sadly,
03:00there are still tens of thousands of fentanyl-related deaths in America every year.
03:05Mexico-based TCOs like the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel dominate the production
03:11and smuggling of fentanyl, heroin, meth, and cocaine into the United States.
03:17Colombia-based DCOs and illegal armed groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
03:22and the National Liberation Army are responsible for producing and trafficking large volumes of cocaine
03:28to the U.S. and European markets, with now some indicators of attempts to expand their markets
03:34to the Asia-Pacific region.
03:36Colombia remains the world's largest producer of cocaine, and Colombian criminal groups have expanded
03:42their trafficking relationships with neighboring Ecuadorian and Brazilian gangs.
03:48As you know, MS-13 is well-established and sells within the United States and uses violence to
03:54intimidate the Salvadoran diaspora, engaging in murder, extortion, retail drug trafficking,
04:00firearms offenses, and prostitution, fueling increased violence and instability.
04:05These and other TCOs continue to present a very tangible and individualized risk of violent crime
04:11to everyday Americans and contribute to regional instability.
04:15As the President increases his focus on counter-drug and counter-cartel pressures,
04:20they are likely to seek ways to try to adapt their operations, including shifting production locations
04:26and trafficking routes and methods.
04:29The United States continues to face a complex and evolving threat landscape with a geographically
04:35diverse set of Islamist terrorist actors, seeking to propagate their ideology globally,
04:40and harm Americans, even as Al-Qaeda and ISIS remain weaker today than they were at their respective peaks.
04:48The spread of Islamist ideology, in some cases led by individuals and organizations associated with
04:53the Muslim Brotherhood, poses a fundamental threat to freedom and the foundational principles that
04:59underpin Western civilization. Islamist groups and individuals use this ideology for recruiting and
05:06financial support for terrorist groups and individuals around the world, and to advance their political
05:11objectives of establishing an Islamist caliphate which governs based on Sharia.
05:17There are increasing examples of this in various European countries, and President Trump's designation of
05:22certain Muslim Brotherhood chapters as foreign terrorist organizations is a mechanism to secure Americans against this threat.
05:28In response to setbacks to their capabilities of conducting large-scale complex attacks,
05:35Islamist terrorist groups have shifted toward focusing on executing information operations to spread propaganda and
05:41inspire or enable individuals located in or with access to the West.
05:48U.S. counterterrorism efforts, primarily in Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria in 2025, were instrumental in removing key terrorist leaders
05:58and operatives,
06:00degrading the ability of Al-Qaeda and ISIS to quickly reconstitute its leadership and plan large-scale attacks against the
06:07homeland and U.S. interests abroad.
06:09Strict U.S. border enforcement measures and increased deportations of individuals with suspected links to Islamist terrorists have reduced access
06:17to the homeland and removed some potential sources of future terrorist attacks.
06:22Since January, U.S. officials have only had a handful of encounters at our borders with individuals associated with terrorist
06:28groups.
06:28This is a positive trend, however, our interagency coordinated efforts to continue to identify, locate, and remove known or suspected
06:37terrorists who may already be in the United States continues with vigilance.
06:43In 2025, there were at least three Islamist terrorist attacks in the United States.
06:48Law enforcement disrupted at least 15 U.S.-based Islamist terrorist plotters.
06:54Roughly half of last year's disrupted plotters had some online contact with Islamist terrorists inspired by Islamist foreign terrorist organizations
07:03abroad.
07:03For example, in the recent attempt to attack a synagogue in Michigan, the shooter had familial ties to a Hezbollah
07:10leader.
07:11Al-Qaeda and ISIS posed the biggest threat to U.S. interests overseas in parts of Africa, the Middle East,
07:17and South Asia where these groups operate.
07:19In the Middle East, AQAP in Yemen, ISIS-K in South Asia, and ISIS in Syria are among the most
07:27likely groups conducting external plotting.
07:30ISIS in Syria is likely seeking to rebuild its ranks, expand support networks, and solicit funds by reengaging with and
07:38recruiting from the likely hundreds of ISIS detainees and thousands of ISIS-linked women and children who were either released
07:45or escaped from prisons and displaced person camps.
07:48They were previously run by the Syrian Democratic forces in northeast Syria.
07:53Meanwhile, state actors present a risk broader in scope by seeking new capabilities in kinetic and cyber warfare.
08:02The United States secure nuclear deterrent continues to ensure safety in the homeland against strategic threats.
08:08However, the intelligence community assesses that Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array
08:17of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads that put our homeland within range.
08:24The IC assesses that threats to the homeland will expand collectively to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035 from
08:33the current assessed figure of more than 3,000 missiles.
08:37The IC assesses that China and Russia are developing advanced delivery systems meant to be capable of penetrating or bypassing
08:44U.S. missile defenses.
08:45North Korea's ICBMs can already reach U.S. soil, and the IC assesses that it is committed to expanding its
08:52nuclear arsenal.
08:55Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the homeland.
09:02The IC assesses that Iran has previously demonstrated space launch and other technology it could use to begin to develop
09:10a militarily viable ICBM before 2035 should Tehran attempt to pursue that capability.
09:18However, these assessments will clearly be updated as the full impact of Operation Epic Fury's devastating strikes on Iran's missile
09:25production facilities, stockpiles, and launch capabilities is determined.
09:31These nations collectively will likely seek to understand U.S. plans for advanced missile defense for the homeland,
09:36probably for the purpose of shaping their own missile development programs and assessing U.S. intentions regarding deterrence.
09:44Shifting to the cyber domain, the IC assesses that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and non-state ransomware groups will
09:50continue to seek to compromise U.S. government and private sector networks,
09:55as well as critical infrastructure to collect intelligence, create options for future disruption, and for financial gain.
10:02The IC assesses that China and Russia present the most persistent and active threats and are continuing their R&D
10:09efforts.
10:09North Korea's cyber program is sophisticated and agile.
10:13In 2025 alone, North Korea's cryptocurrency heist probably stole $2 billion,
10:19which the IC assesses is helping to fund the regime and include further development of its strategic weapons programs.
10:26Financially or ideologically motivated non-state actors are becoming more bold,
10:31with ransomware groups shifting to faster high-volume attacks that are harder to identify and mitigate.
10:38Innovation in the field of artificial intelligence will likely accelerate these threats in the cyber domain.
10:44The IC assesses that it will increasingly shape cyber operations with both cyber operators and defenders using these tools to
10:51improve their speed and effectiveness.
10:53For example, in August of 2025, cyber actors used an AI tool to conduct a data extortion operation against international
11:01government,
11:02healthcare, and public health emergency service sectors, as well as religious institutions.
11:09Moving to the Arctic, the IC assesses that Russia, and to a lesser extent China,
11:13aim to strengthen their presence in the region through increased maritime trade, natural resource extraction, and military activity.
11:20Russia, which has the longest coastline in the Arctic, has long sought recognition of its polar great power status,
11:28and is deploying more military forces and building new permanent infrastructure.
11:32China, though not an Arctic country, is engaged in more limited efforts in the region to advance its own strategic
11:38and economic interests.
11:42The IC assesses that China is the most capable competitor in the field of artificial intelligence.
11:49The IC assesses that AI capabilities are rapidly advancing and changing the threat landscape.
11:55As this is a defining technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human learning comprehension,
12:01problem solving, creativity, and autonomy, it will be critical to ensure that humans remain in control of how AI is
12:08used,
12:08and of the machines that may threaten to autonomously violate the interests of the American people across all domains.
12:15AI adoption at scale across the spectrum of usage poses serious risks.
12:21AI has the potential to aid in weapons and systems design and has been used in recent conflicts to influence
12:27targeting and streamline decision making,
12:30underscoring the risk and likely threats that could manifest on the battlefield.
12:34Early developers in quantum computers will give countries an extraordinary technological advantage over others to quickly process national security information,
12:45and break current encryption methodology used to protect sensitive finance, healthcare, and government information.
12:54The global security landscape is volatile and complex, with armed conflict growing more common and posing potential threats against U
13:02.S. interests.
13:04Strategic competition and regional and smaller powers are becoming more willing to use force to pursue their interests, heightening the
13:11risk of conflict.
13:12The IC assesses the space domain is becoming increasingly contested, with China and Russia developing counter space capabilities to challenge
13:20U.S. space efforts.
13:22The threat of nuclear proliferation and advancing chemical and biological warfare capabilities continues to grow.
13:30I'll turn now to our neighborhood in the Western Hemisphere where flagging economies, high crime rates,
13:35pervasive organized crime, migration flows, corruption, narcotics trafficking, all of these present a spectrum of risks to U.S. interests,
13:42and where strategic competitors seek to gain greater influence in the region.
13:47The IC assesses that Latin America and the Caribbean almost certainly will see hot spots of volatility in the coming
13:55year.
13:56Since Maduro's arrest, the IC assesses a shift in Venezuela's leadership towards cooperating with the U.S. to open its
14:04economy,
14:05to develop the country's oil and gas extraction capability, and we've seen their movement in releasing political prisoners.
14:11The U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement review in 2026 will likely increase uncertainty in many Latin American countries,
14:20especially those that rely on Mexico as an export destination for intermediate goods for manufacture and onward export to the
14:27U.S.
14:28China, Russia, and Iran are likely seeking to sustain economic, political, and military engagement with Latin America.
14:35The IC assesses that China's demand for raw materials is likely to continue to drive its economic outreach,
14:42while Russia likely wants to expand its current security and diplomatic ties with Cuba and Nicaragua.
14:49The IC assesses that China aims to elevate its own political, economic, military, and technological power
14:54to increase its own regional positioning and global influence to fend off threats to their interests.
15:01While there are challenging areas where interests diverge,
15:05President Trump's diplomatic engagements with President Xi to work towards U.S. interests have enabled progress where those interests align.
15:13The IC assesses that China continues to rapidly modernize its military forces across all domains in pursuit of its goal
15:20to achieve world-class status by mid-century.
15:23This includes building a force with the aim of being capable of deterring U.S. and allied forces in the
15:29region,
15:29and to achieve their stated objective of developing the ability to seize Taiwan by force if necessary.
15:36However, the IC assesses that China likely prefers to set the conditions for an eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan short
15:43of conflict.
15:45The IC assesses that an increasingly confident North Korean regime remains a source of concern regionally and globally.
15:51Its weapons of mass destruction, its conventional military capabilities, illicit cyber activities,
15:57and demonstrated willingness to use asymmetric capabilities poses a threat to U.S. and its allies, particularly South Korea and
16:04Japan.
16:05North Korea's partnership with Russia is growing, and in 2025, Kim took steps to improve ties with China,
16:13still North Korea's most important trading partner and economic benefactor.
16:18The IC assesses that North Korea's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine has increased North Korea's capabilities,
16:24as their forces have gained combat experience in 21st century warfare, along with equipment.
16:30In 2024, North Korea deployed more than 11,000 troops to Russia to support combat operations in Kursk.
16:38Pyongyang continues to develop and expand its strategic weapons programs, including missiles that can evade U.S. and regional missile
16:44defenses.
16:45It is continuing to work to increase its nuclear warhead stockpile and maintains biological and chemical weapons capabilities.
16:55Russia retains the capability to selectively challenge U.S. interests globally by military and non-military means.
17:02The IC assesses that the most dangerous threat posed by Russia to the U.S. is the potential of an
17:07escalatory spiral in an ongoing conflict such as Ukraine,
17:11or a new conflict that led to direct hostilities, including the potential deployment of nuclear weapons.
17:18The IC assesses that Putin continues to invest in Russia's defense industrial base, as well as novel capabilities that may
17:25pose a greater threat to the U.S. homeland and forces abroad than conventional weapons.
17:30Russia has advanced systems, hypersonic missiles, and undersea capabilities designed to negate U.S. military advantage.
17:37Moscow also relies on other tools to exert pressure using gray zone tactics to further its goals and compete below
17:44the level of armed conflict.
17:47Russia is also building an extensive counter space capabilities to contest U.S. space dominance.
17:54Its development of a nuclear counter space weapon poses the greatest single threat to the world's space architecture.
18:01During the past year, the IC assesses that Russia has maintained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine.
18:07U.S.-led negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are ongoing.
18:12Until such an agreement is met, Moscow is likely to continue fighting a slow war of attrition until they view
18:17their objectives have been achieved.
18:19In the Middle East, conflict and instability will shape security, political and economic dynamics in a variety of ways.
18:25The IC assesses that Operation Epic Fury is advancing fundamental change in the region that began with Hamas's attack on
18:33Israel on October 7, 2023, and continued with the 12-day war last year, resulting in weakening Iran and its
18:42proxies.
18:43The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership
18:50and military capabilities.
18:52Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options.
18:59Iran's strategic position has been significantly degraded.
19:04The U.S.-led maximum pressure campaign and snapback of European sanctions added additional pressure to an already bleak Iranian economy,
19:12resulting in mass protests earlier this year that Tehran suppressed by killing thousands of protesters.
19:18Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as Iran's economy worsens.
19:29Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East.
19:35The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years-long effort to
19:42rebuild its military missiles and UAV forces.
19:46Prior to Operation Epic Fury, the IC assesses that Iran was trying to recover from the severe damage to its
19:52nuclear infrastructure sustained during the 12-day war,
19:55and continued to refuse to comply with its nuclear obligations with the IAEA, refusing them access to key facilities.
20:01.
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