- 7 hours ago
As US President Donald Trump threatens to take over Cuba, following the forced collapse of their national electric grid, Mark Owen welcomes Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America Programme at the Chatham House. What we are witnessing today, explains Mr. Sabatini, is not an isolated infrastructural failure, but the convergence of long-standing structural weaknesses and acute geopolitical pressure.
What concerns him most is not only the immediate humanitarian toll, but the illusion that external pressure alone can engineer political transformation. Cuba is not a system that yields easily. Its centralized, deeply entrenched governance structure resists rapid change, and any attempt to force transition from the outside risks producing instability rather than reform.
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What concerns him most is not only the immediate humanitarian toll, but the illusion that external pressure alone can engineer political transformation. Cuba is not a system that yields easily. Its centralized, deeply entrenched governance structure resists rapid change, and any attempt to force transition from the outside risks producing instability rather than reform.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
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NewsTranscript
00:01Cuba scrambled this Tuesday to restore power after a nationwide blackout hit the island just as the U.S. President
00:07Donald Trump proclaimed that he will take it over.
00:10Cuba's national electric grid collapsed on Monday, leaving about 10 million people without power amid a U.S.-imposed oil blockade
00:17that's crippled the island's already obsolete generation system.
00:21Much of Cuba has had power restored this Tuesday, but it was during the nationwide blackout that President Trump of
00:27the United States made his menacing remark,
00:29telling reporters at the White House, quote, I do believe I will have the honour of taking Cuba.
00:37Well, Trump's gone on to say that Cuba's in bad shape. He spoke to reporters in the Oval Office a
00:41few hours ago.
00:41Trump added that Cuba is talking with his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump said Washington should be doing
00:47something with Cuba very soon.
00:49Rubio, in his turn, said the current Cuban government's unable to fix the island's struggling economy, and it needs new
00:55people in charge to repair it.
00:57Well, let's get the analysis and bring in Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, the U.S., and
01:04the Americas Programme at Chatham House.
01:06Christopher, as always, pleasure to have you with us.
01:09Why is Cuba's power generation infrastructure in such a poor state?
01:14Can you give us some background on that, please?
01:17The first is that they've lost what was effectively originally 100,000 barrels per day of gifted oil from Venezuela,
01:26half of which they sold on the global markets, and half of which was for their own consumption.
01:31That has disappeared with the oil blockade.
01:33But second, they've simply not kept up with technology and updating their electrical grids.
01:39So without the combustible, the fuel, and without the sort of the generation capacity and delivery capacity, they're really in
01:46dire straits right now in terms of their electricity.
01:50And according to Cuba's own authorities, they only have a few weeks to go of fuel left.
01:54So it's going to only get worse.
01:57And quite frankly, the measures the Trump administration is proposing are not going to provide immediate relief.
02:03So Trump, when he says Cuba's in a bad way, he's quite correct.
02:06But Cuba might be in an even worse position because of what Trump has imposed.
02:12Exactly right.
02:13He basically imposed this oil blockade, which cut off a lifeline that had been given to Cuba for a long
02:19time.
02:19They kept the lights on, literally, but also was essential for people's cooking oil, people's refrigeration of food.
02:26So food is spoiling.
02:27And even for the delivery of food, and even for the hard currency that they used to earn when they
02:31would sell part of that oil on international markets.
02:34This has been, if you will, a humanitarian crisis, largely of Trump's making.
02:39So there's been this issue of the aging infrastructure, which hasn't kept up with technology for any number of reasons
02:45under the previous Castro regime.
02:48There's been this situation created by Trump with his decision post-Venezuela to squeeze Cuba in that way.
02:54What is motivating the Trump administration to do this?
03:00Quite frankly, I think part of it is that they want to project their power in the hemisphere, as they
03:04did in Venezuela.
03:05And I think the Venezuela model is one that Trump thinks he can impose or use in Cuba, as he
03:12thinks he's going to use it in Iran.
03:14But Cuba is not Venezuela.
03:16It's a much more disciplined, revolutionary state, one-party state, a command-and-control economy that's been in power for
03:2267 years now.
03:24But what he wants to do is basically try to root out any governments that are going to be opposed
03:29to U.S. interests.
03:30We also have to remember that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a Cuban-American.
03:34His parents left Cuba, actually before the Fidel Castro revolution, but he has really cut his political teeth, if you
03:40will, in South Florida politics, where there are more than, well, well over two million Cuban voters, many of whom
03:47are very hardline and are seeking regime change.
03:49So Trump is being pushed by, if you will, his own ego, his own plan for the so-called Don
03:54Roe Doctrine, an adaptation of the Don Roe Doctrine, as well as his Secretary of State, who for a long
03:59time has had on his agenda regime change in Cuba.
04:04So regime change, that was my next question.
04:06You brought us right there.
04:07Is that Rubio's agenda, regime change?
04:10Well, I think it could be, and I think it was originally.
04:13But I think right now, just as they're seeing, they saw in the case of Venezuela, as the time came
04:18closer and closer for the removal of Maduro, that the imposition of democratic opposition in Cuba, in this case, in
04:25Venezuela, in the other, could actually bring more chaos.
04:28The Cuban opposition is very fragmented, very atomized.
04:34It's very small.
04:35A lot of the Cuban leaders have left and fled to South Florida facing repression.
04:40It isn't clear what exactly a democratic transition would be, because you'd have to basically, unlike in Venezuela, you'd pretty
04:46much have to pull up the Cuban state by its roots to be able to create a democratic government of
04:52the sort that many people aspire to see in Cuba.
04:55So, yes, it is regime change, but quite frankly, I'm sure they're hearing a lot of analyses from the CIA
05:00and other intelligence services that it's a distant hope and one that could perhaps bring more chaos and even outflow
05:08of refugees than was once thought.
05:10Donald Trump, no doubt, has something in mind along the lines of what his plan was or his plan is
05:17for the Gaza Strip.
05:19Without sort of going down that particular avenue, can you tell us about the potential perhaps that Cuba would have
05:26if developed with the people in the right way for the good of Cuban people along those lines?
05:32Because clearly there is potential there that perhaps isn't being tapped into.
05:37Well, you didn't want to go down this road, but I'm going to, which is for Trump it was oil
05:42in Venezuela, and for Trump it's now tourism in Cuba.
05:45In 1994, he actually sent a number of his scouts to look at opportunities for Trump hotels, casinos in Cuba.
05:53So he has his eye on this because, you know, it could become a paradise for Trump's ambitions to create
06:00resorts.
06:01The problem with that is that tourism is deeply exploitative.
06:06Those on the island oftentimes are left out.
06:09They often only have service jobs.
06:11And the current hotels that are in Cuba that are frequented by foreign tourists, most of them from Europe, most
06:18of the staff in these hotels are not Afro-descendant.
06:20They're more European-descendant.
06:21And that's the problem because the bulk of the population of Cuba is Afro-descendant.
06:27So it really risks creating a very sharp and racially defined inequality, levels of inequality within Cuba,
06:36if it's going to be tourism only that Trump uses to try to build Cuba back.
06:40Is there anybody on the island, because Rubio is talking about different people that needed to make it happen,
06:45is there anybody there that you can think of that might be able to work with Trump, his people,
06:52in order to create this evolving Cuba, which could be for the good of everybody?
06:59Ironically, Marco Rubio is talking to the grandson of Raul Castro, Raulito,
07:05which is funny because, first of all, it demonstrates, first of all, that the revolution of 1959 has just created
07:12a dynasty.
07:13But he's the man who can probably make things happen.
07:16But having worked in Cuba for a long time and having tried to press for a number of changes with
07:20Cubans,
07:21in this case for an exchange program with Columbia University, everything has to go to the top.
07:26It is a very vertically dominated structure in terms of decision making.
07:31So even talking to one person, even if it is a Castro, that will still, that person or whatever change
07:37will still have to confront a deeply hidebound and resistant bureaucracy that is very inefficient.
07:42So this is not a matter of just flipping a switch and opening up the markets and the tourism sector
07:47and allowing for investment.
07:48It's going to confront an incredibly difficult bureaucratic process and a lot of intransigence.
07:54And thank you for that illumination about what Trump's ideas and his intentions are in terms of developing Cuba.
08:00I wasn't surprised to hear any of it, but the detail is quite chilling when you stated the way you
08:05did very coolly, Christopher.
08:06Can I ask about the other great ally that Cuba's had going back many, many years, of course,
08:13Soviet Union before, now, of course, Russia.
08:15Is this an opportunity for Putin somehow to cash in and basically stir the pot of trouble?
08:21I think that is.
08:22I mean, look, Putin operates on sort of by creating trouble, as you say, in very small, cheap ways.
08:28And this is something that he can, quite frankly, fan the flames of discontent within Cuba,
08:34spark refugee crises that send Cubans across the Florida Straits to Florida that would basically hurt Trump and divide American
08:42politics.
08:44He wouldn't, you know, Putin will not actually go to the mat for Cuba.
08:47It is a pretty small island and stake in his larger, near abroad goals.
08:52But yes, if he could tie down the United States in some forever war, just 90 miles off the coast
08:58of the United States,
08:59that would be a gift to Putin.
09:00And I fully suspect that's what he's planning to do.
09:03It is intriguing.
09:04There are so many issues and so many possible angles to this developing story.
09:09And I'm wondering about politically inside the United States, because, as you mentioned earlier,
09:14many Cubans, of course, left at the time of the revolution, settled in Florida, the whiteboard,
09:20those kind of areas which have become legendary in their own right.
09:23I'm wondering whether what happens in Cuba will have an effect in play during the midterms, for instance.
09:31It will in several ways.
09:32First of all, if Trump fumbles this, if you will, if he doesn't deliver the regime change of many Cuban
09:37Americans, not all,
09:38the Cuban American community has evolved, especially with generational change.
09:42But there are many Cuban Americans who are deeply committed to seeing democracy and the end of Castroism in Cuba.
09:47If he fumbles that and doesn't deliver regime change, he'll probably lose a lot of their votes.
09:51And the three Cuban American congressmen from South Florida have continued to hammer away on this issue of regime change,
09:58democracy, the end of Castroism.
09:59He'll probably lose their votes.
10:01But also, if this triggers a refugee crisis or even the perception that the U.S. is again getting caught
10:06up in some long-term engagement, entanglement even,
10:09then I think it will hurt his parties, because it's the midterm elections, as you say,
10:14but his party's chances that he's gone back on his promise to end forever wars and to promote peace.
10:19And again, if there are massive amounts of refugees that come to Florida and the coverage of that,
10:25it will look like this anti-immigration president has delivered on exactly the opposite of what one of his key
10:30domestic promises,
10:31which was to remove undocumented immigrants from the United States.
10:34I've kept you a long time, Christopher. One last question, if you will allow me.
10:38We began talking about the issue regarding the collapse of the power system.
10:41We spoke about the fact that it was antiquated, not well maintained.
10:47How much of that neglect would you blame on the actual system as it was?
10:51Or is it the fact that basically the country didn't have the wherewithal, the money to maintain it?
10:56What would you put it down to?
11:00First of all, Cuba has survived on the kindness of strangers, to quote the streetcar name Desire play.
11:07It was first subsidized by the Soviet Union and then later subsidized by the governments of Venezuela under Hugo Chavez
11:13and Nicolas Maduro.
11:14That meant that they really didn't have to engage in the sort of upgrades that are necessary to keep an
11:19economy and electrical system running, basically.
11:21But also, it is a very top-down command control economy.
11:25If you're a farmer in Cuba, for example, the state comes out, they tell you what you're going to plant,
11:29how much you're going to plant.
11:30They deliver the fertilizer and the seeds, and then they collect it and sell it in state-led stores.
11:35This is not a flexible, entrepreneurial-type economy that can sustain sort of innovation and investment in people, quite frankly,
11:45and in some sorts of economic resources that can sustain its food system as well as its infrastructure.
11:51Christopher Sabatini, as always, thank you very much indeed for being with us during this from Channel House.
11:55Pleasure speaking to you as ever.
11:56Thank you very much.
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