00:00Gold has come down. There is not much damage, but in today's date, it has come down.
00:05Silver has come down to 5,000 damage.
00:08They are very volatile, Sonia Chandi.
00:11Generally, the situation of war crisis, we have seen Sonia Chandi's upward trend.
00:18What is the reason for volatility?
00:20Is there more profit booking than investors?
00:26So, basically, there are two reasons.
00:29One is that we are seeing that the rest of the markets are underperforming.
00:34Equities, bonds.
00:36That's why there is a lot of margin pressure in the market.
00:41And for investors to fulfill their margin pressure,
00:46wherever they have profits, they square off those positions.
00:50So, M2M pay or further margins.
00:55So, I think the biggest problem that happened in this time in gold and silver.
01:00After the last year, there is so good performance.
01:03After this year, there is so good returns.
01:05The profit booking is for this reason.
01:08Whether it is ETF or other funds.
01:10And so, because people want to keep their money and cover losses.
01:17The second reason is that, as you said,
01:21the political tensions have increased.
01:25And the tick for attack, retaliation, whether it is Iran or U.S.
01:29or U.S.
01:31So, we are seeing that, as you said,
01:32we are seeing that crude oil prices are one-sided, one-way.
01:35And it is trading above $100.
01:38And with that, we are seeing that the dollar index,
01:41which is also 4 months high.
01:43That has also crossed the level of 100.
01:46Which has increased almost 4-5% in the past 15-20 days.
01:52So, the rising dollar index, rising crude oil prices.
01:56And with that, we are seeing that U.S. Treasury yields,
01:59which is long-term treasury yields,
02:0110-year treasury yields, 30-year treasury yields.
02:04There is also a good momentum.
02:0725 to 30 basis points has also increased.
02:10The reason is, crude is increasing.
02:12The inflation is increasing.
02:14And the interest rate cuts of the expectations are increasing.
02:17From 3 to 4 rate cuts that were expected earlier,
02:20the market is only expecting that.
02:22There could be one rate cut, that too in September.
02:25So, the rate cuts are increasing.
02:27The expectations are increasing.
02:29So, that is the one other reason,
02:31which is why we are seeing that
02:32the performance is dull in the short-term.
02:35But I think this is a short-term phenomenon.
02:38Medium to long-term,
02:39I also feel that there is a risk of sentiment in the market.
02:44That is why we are seeing a little profit booking.
02:47But I would say these levels,
02:495,000 dollars,
02:50which is trading gold.
02:52It is not sustainable here.
02:54So, in short-term,
02:55it can go down to 4,800 dollars.
02:57But I think that would be a very good level,
03:00where long-term investment can be made,
03:02which were waiting,
03:03which was FOMO fear.
03:05So, staggered buying can start from these levels.
03:08So, I think there is a little downside here.
03:11One lakh fifty thousand,
03:12if you get a gold,
03:14so that would be table thumping buy,
03:16for short-term,
03:17which we wanted to buy,
03:19and were waiting.
03:19And I think that for three years,
03:24the long-term view is positive.
03:26Until Trump is in power,
03:28I think that uncertainties will become in the market.
03:31Whether there are geopolitical uncertainties,
03:33or tariff uncertainty,
03:34or something else.
03:35If one thing is finished,
03:36something else will come.
03:37So, you should use such levels as the buying opportunity,
03:40both for gold and silver.
03:42Investors, what do you do?
03:43In this segment,
03:44you have two questions.
03:46Outlook,
03:47and strategy.
03:48I will answer both of you.
03:55First question, Renisha.
03:56How do you feel,
03:57the outlook of gold and silver?
03:58In the near future,
03:59both of the short-term and long-term,
04:00and how do we keep the strategy,
04:02both of us in silver and gold?
04:06I think that if gold has not sustained $5,000,
04:09sustained,
04:10then it can go down to $4,800,
04:13which will be almost to $1,500,000 to $1,500,000 to $1,500,000.
04:19These levels will be very good,
04:21where there is long-term support,
04:23and I don't think that this level should break.
04:26In short-term,
04:26I think the undertone is a little bearish.
04:31And prices could be vulnerable to fall somewhat.
04:36But that level,
04:37which I will tell you,
04:38$1,500,000 to $1,500,000 to $1,500,000 to $1,500,000.
04:42So that should be used as a buying opportunity
04:44for medium to long-term.
04:46I think,
04:47prices can also touch our previous high.
04:50Still bullish on gold,
04:52which is the $1,800,000 price,
04:54as well as uncertainties,
04:55which will be made in the next three years.
04:57I think that that will be cross in the next three years.
05:00And if we talk about long-term,
05:02then I think that prices are in a secular bull market,
05:05where there are still many upside.
05:08I think that prices will also be double in the next three years.
05:11So stay invested by,
05:14with a staggered manner.
05:17With SIP,
05:18or 20-20%
05:20you can invest a little bit.
05:22If we talk about silver,
05:24the current prices are $80.
05:26If the prices sustain below it,
05:29it can go down to $75.
05:31So I think,
05:33in short term,
05:34there is a lot of profit booking.
05:36For at least 5-6%.
05:39If we talk about domestic levels,
05:41then I think it can come down to,
05:43you know,
05:44$2,30,000 to $2,35,000.
05:46So that should be acting as a very strong support,
05:49where I think that there is a rebound.
05:52And in silver,
05:53I also think that,
05:54if the resistance of the 100 levels,
05:57it will cross.
05:59And in Indian terms,
06:00almost $3,00,000.
06:01After that,
06:02I am seeing that,
06:02bullish momentum will continue.
06:04And prices can even go to $110, $120.
06:08It can touch its previous high,
06:10in coming months.
06:12Indian prices,
06:13it can again go up to $4,00,000.
06:16So,
06:18downside is very limited.
06:19Upside is unlimited.
06:21So I think,
06:22the risk-reward ratio is very good.
06:25Dips should be used as a buying opportunity,
06:27be it lump sum,
06:28staggered way,
06:29SIP,
06:30whatever you want.
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