00:00Mark, it is an incredibly busy week when it comes to central banks, but most of them are expected to
00:04not do anything, keep policy on hold, talk a lot, no doubt, about inflation concerns, maybe growth concerns as well.
00:11If we were to get a surprise from a central bank, where do you think it would come from?
00:16I think the most interesting one is the RBA.
00:20What I call a surprise, it's two thirds price for a hike or maybe a little bit less.
00:25And I think a hike is a real possibility tomorrow.
00:29But obviously, with, you know, 60, 65 percent priced, either way makes it interesting.
00:35I guess the reason I highlight that one is it's the first of the major central banks to go.
00:39If they hike, it'll be the first time they've hiked for two meetings in a row in a couple of
00:43years.
00:44And already kind of set the cat amongst the pigeons for kind of developed market central banks that they are
00:49potentially back in a hiking cycle after a couple of years of being in an easing cycle.
00:53So, yeah, that's the one I think that it's probably most interesting this week.
00:59Mark, I'm curious in terms of your views whether or not there would be a market impact if this Xi
01:03-Trump meeting doesn't happen.
01:05Trump telling the Financial Times that he wants to see some support from China around the Straits of Olmuz.
01:10If that doesn't happen, maybe he delays, maybe he cancels that meeting.
01:12Is there a market impact for that?
01:14Is there anything priced in terms of this meeting, in terms of U.S.-China relations?
01:20Yeah, I think it would be taken negatively.
01:23I think we'd probably move on from it quickly.
01:25It's not the dominant theme at the moment.
01:27Obviously, the conflict's the dominant theme.
01:29But I think, you know, people are assuming it goes ahead and assuming that we're going to get some positive
01:35headlines.
01:36You know, we're used to the narrative here.
01:37The rhetoric comes out.
01:38We had a great shot.
01:39We got many wonderful deals.
01:41China's going to invest loads of money in the U.S.
01:42We solved many things.
01:44All is great.
01:44I threatened them loads.
01:45That's where we're expecting the line of platitudes to come from the U.S. side.
01:49If the meeting is cancelled, he doesn't get that chance.
01:51So I think if it is cancelled, it would be a negative.
01:54But then we'd quickly go back to focusing on bigger issues.
01:57Mark, on the point of Trump calling on others to help the U.S.,
02:00what's the read for markets on the fact that few seem to be forthcoming right now?
02:05I mean, are you more bearish after the weekend's events, the commentary around the Middle East?
02:12I am probably more bearish.
02:14I was feeling pretty negative on Friday.
02:16I'm feeling pretty negative again today.
02:18I mean, the MSCI All-Country World Index is heading for its worst month since September 2020.
02:24Worst month in almost three years.
02:25I still don't think they've fallen enough.
02:27Their stocks keep on falling.
02:28But in this jagged fashion, they keep on bouncing back impressively in the European morning
02:32and then kind of heading lower later on as we realize there's no kind of salvation yet.
02:37So I think the outlook's very poor.
02:40And it goes back to your kind of initial question there, Lizzie.
02:42You know, how are markets reading the fact that countries aren't forthcoming
02:46for providing support for the Strait of Homo?
02:48I think everyone knows that most of the world, barring probably Russia and Iran,
02:54want the Strait to be open again and therefore people would like to help.
02:57But what is the goal here?
02:59I mean, you know, Bloomberg had a story out of the weekend saying people are a bit confused
03:02what Trump's goals are.
03:04It doesn't isn't clear the U.S. administration knows what their goals are.
03:07So, you know, at the moment, all this does is highlight the fact that there's no easy
03:11resolution in sight.
03:13And that's why I think stocks need to price materially lower still.
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