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00:00So this morning, we awake to more Iranian strikes across the Gulf.
00:04We awake to more Israeli strikes on Iran and American strikes on Iran.
00:09And we awake also to President Trump's relatively late yesterday,
00:14well, the second half of yesterday,
00:16asking China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK
00:20to send ships to the Straits of Hormuz
00:23in order to protect that vital waterway
00:25that's a bit like, you know, the sort of maritime motorway for the world
00:28where oil and gas and all sorts of goods move through,
00:31currently clogged up because of the conflict,
00:33which is what has sent oil prices skyrocketing.
00:36That's a contrast to last Saturday's posting.
00:39The United Kingdom, once our great ally, maybe the greatest of them all,
00:43is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East.
00:46That's OK, Prime Minister, and we don't need them any longer,
00:48but we will remember.
00:49Henry, this is a reverse ferret from the leader of the free world.
00:53Yeah, it certainly appears to be in the sense of
00:55whether he needs the UK's assistance or not,
00:58although, let's be clear,
01:00they're different things that he's asking for now
01:03compared to when he was saying he didn't need a UK aircraft carrier's assistance.
01:08But it does underscore the kind of whiplash
01:12that the UK government is feeling
01:14and so many allies of the United States are feeling
01:17in how to deal with President Trump.
01:19That's not new, but it is in a new and perhaps more kind of high wire context than ever,
01:29which is this conflict with Iran,
01:32where it's not clear from public pronouncement to public pronouncement
01:37what exactly President Trump's endgame is
01:39and how soon or how long it might be until he declares it.
01:44And it's something definitely picked up on by members of the public and newscasters like Pete.
01:48Pete's got in touch to say,
01:49hi, Trump says he doesn't want help from those that join after he's won the war.
01:54Today, he wants equipment sent to help him.
01:55He needs to make up his mind.
01:57Well, you can imagine they probably feel that in Downing Street.
01:59And they also, I imagine, raised their eyebrows at another one of Trump's pronouncements,
02:05not this time on social media,
02:07but in a phone interview with some of our broadcast colleagues in America,
02:10where he said Iran wants a deal,
02:14but he's not ready to do a deal because the terms aren't good enough.
02:16But he might carry on bombing Karg Island,
02:21which our colleague Frank Gardner pronounced completely beautifully yesterday,
02:24and I'm sure I've mangled it then,
02:25which is a vital oil hub in Iran.
02:28He might carry on bombing it, and I quote,
02:31just for fun.
02:32Now, that is not how Western leaders would traditionally,
02:38conventionally, talk about conflicts where lives are lost,
02:42lives are turned upside down, and things are destroyed.
02:45And I spoke to Admiral Lord West about this,
02:48who says that you have to send your battleships to the sound of gunfire.
02:54He's saying, you know, none of us like war.
02:55There are many listeners to our, many newscasters who say,
02:59it's another foreign war we're getting involved in.
03:01Don't get involved.
03:02But Lord West, who ran the Navy as First Sea Lord,
03:04told me, if you don't join wars because you don't want to,
03:07you're going to end up joining them anyway.
03:09You can't avoid wars sometimes,
03:10and trying to avoid them makes you more involved.
03:12And I think you need to be involved.
03:15I think in this, for example,
03:16the case now where the Straits of Hormuz are closed,
03:19we should be looking at options to how could we join with the Americans
03:23if we want to keep these straits open over many months.
03:26Henry, it's a dilemma for the government, isn't it?
03:28Because they didn't get involved at first,
03:30which seems to be politically astute,
03:32save friends of Keir Starmer, the ones who left.
03:34Yeah, I think Lord West gets to a conversation
03:37which is going on in government, which is,
03:39OK, the UK took certain decisions in the run-up to
03:42and in the immediate aftermath of this war being launched
03:45by the US and Israel.
03:47But now the war has been launched,
03:50ought that to change the way in which the UK approaches it?
03:53And actually, you already saw very quickly,
03:55a couple of weekends ago, the UK switch its position
03:58to allow the US to carry out strikes from British bases.
04:01But there are questions for sure going on in government.
04:03I'm ricocheting around government
04:05about whether the UK ought now to do more.
04:07But I do think, in general,
04:11the feeling I pick up from high levels of government,
04:14and I'm interested in what you guys are hearing,
04:16is that they feel vindicated.
04:19They feel like Keir Starmer has made the right calls,
04:23especially in the run-up to the war
04:24when he got the request from President Trump to help.
04:27But in general, throughout,
04:29they think that he adapted the position at the right time.
04:33And there are people in government
04:35who are not generally over-disposed
04:38to be flattering about Keir Starmer's performance,
04:41who are genuinely impressed
04:44and think that, you know,
04:46aside from the statecraft questions,
04:48as you mentioned, Paddy,
04:49he has managed an important feat politically,
04:52which hasn't generally been a hallmark of his government,
04:55which is that he appears to be
04:55on the right side of public opinion as well.
04:57I think that's definitely true.
04:58And I think they also, in government,
05:00think that their opponents have messed up
05:02their initial approaches to the war.
05:05And Labour insiders would point to
05:08how they claim the Conservatives
05:09have sort of softened their approach.
05:11It appeared that they were very gung-ho at the beginning,
05:13and they've sort of walked back from that
05:15a little bit in the last fortnight.
05:16They make the same accusation
05:18at Nigel Farage's door.
05:20They then point to the Greens on the other side
05:22and sort of say,
05:23well, their position's ludicrous
05:24because you can't just imagine
05:24that you can just have diplomacy
05:26and it'll all go away
05:27and you can sort of just say,
05:28oh, wars are terrible.
05:29The Liberal Democrats, of course,
05:31they make the same kind of claim
05:32that, well, it's not really serious
05:34to be in this kind of position
05:37when there is a conflict in the war.
05:38You have to deal with the real world.
05:40It is a bit against kind of expectations
05:41that you have right now.
05:42You have people in the Labour Party going,
05:44actually, maybe we've played this quite well,
05:47which is unusual.
05:48And I do think,
05:49and this is a tangent to the conversation
05:50we're having today,
05:52but I do think that from a month ago
05:55when it was very, very hard
05:57to find anyone in the Labour Party
05:58who would say Keir Starmer
05:59would be definitely leading them
06:01into the next general election,
06:02the war for this time has shifted that
06:06and people instead will say to you,
06:08oh my God,
06:09well, we couldn't possibly think
06:10about changing a leader now
06:11because it would look insane
06:12when there are bombs falling from the sky.
06:14Now that might shift again,
06:16but the realpolitik of having a conflict
06:19in the Middle East
06:19has changed the calculus inside the Labour Party
06:22about what to do
06:24about their very unpopular
06:25with the public leader.
06:27I did not know that.
06:28I thought the malaise had set in
06:30on that question,
06:31but you're telling me it's kinetic.
06:33Well, I think the malaise is still there, right?
06:35People aren't saying,
06:35oh, Keir Starmer's a hero
06:36and now we all like him.
06:38But that question of timing
06:40and that question of what to do
06:42has become an awful lot less tempting
06:44for people who were thinking,
06:47planning, wondering
06:49about whether or not
06:50they would have a change of leader
06:51after the May elections.
06:52That calculation has definitely shifted.
06:56I wonder, Henry,
06:56if you agree with that
06:57because I don't want to overstate this.
06:58It doesn't mean that they now suddenly think
07:00Keir Starmer is marvellous
07:01and all will be well.
07:02No, I know you weren't saying that.
07:03But the picture has definitely changed
07:05in the conversations I've had this week.
07:06But Henry, does that match up?
07:08I totally agree.
07:09I totally agree.
07:09And worth remembering
07:11in the vivid phrase of Ed Miliband,
07:14who, of course,
07:15has been giving an interview again this morning,
07:17a month or so ago,
07:18the Labour Party looked over the precipice
07:21and decided not to change leader.
07:24Now, they looked over the precipice then
07:26and Labour MPs decided
07:28that the various candidates
07:29weren't quite right at that moment.
07:33Now, the question is not just
07:35whether those same candidates
07:36are quite right a month or so on.
07:38It's also, can you see them
07:41navigating this moment of geopolitics?
07:43And almost by definition,
07:46any candidate to replace Keir Starmer
07:48as Prime Minister
07:50hasn't done the diplomacy
07:52of dealing with Donald Trump
07:54and other world leaders
07:54because they haven't been Prime Minister.
07:56So I do, I mean,
07:57I don't think it necessarily changes
07:59the serious doubts,
08:02to say the least,
08:03about whether Keir Starmer
08:04will lead the Labour Party
08:05in the next general election.
08:06But assuming this war lasts
08:08for at least a little while longer,
08:10I think it certainly does change
08:12the dynamic around May.
08:14And given that was the moment
08:15of massive jeopardy looming
08:16for Keir Starmer,
08:17I think that's very significant.
08:17And let me add, as a postscript,
08:19Lord West, who was, as Alan West,
08:21appointed a minister
08:22under Gordon Brown's administration,
08:24does also say Keir Starmer
08:26got the first stage of this war right.
08:28So earlier, I was bringing you his views.
08:30And Henry's reminded us
08:31there's another newsmaking interview
08:32which we must now digest,
08:35which is one Ed Miliband
08:36on the sofa of one Laura Koonsberg.
08:39Yes.
08:39So Ed Miliband was with us this morning,
08:41very timely because he's the Energy Secretary.
08:43And of course, it's not,
08:44this conflict is, of course,
08:46about Iran,
08:48the Iranian regime,
08:49and the balance of power
08:50in the Middle East,
08:51and Donald Trump.
08:52But it is also about oil
08:54and energy
08:55and how that affects
08:56every single one of us.
08:58And so it was very timely
08:59that we had the Energy Secretary on.
09:02He made pretty clear,
09:04I think,
09:04two important things,
09:05that if the energy price
09:07continues to spike
09:08in the way it has
09:09for some months,
09:11that mean that there might be
09:12a big increase in energy bills
09:14in the months to come,
09:16that the government
09:16would step in
09:17in some way.
09:18He didn't want to be drawn
09:19on the details,
09:20but that's a live conversation
09:21in government.
09:21We know they talked
09:22to the big six this week
09:23about what they might do.
09:25The suggestions are
09:26that support would probably
09:27not be universal
09:29as it was,
09:29as you always remind us.
09:30Let's trust paid
09:31everybody's energy bills
09:32with taxpayers' money.
09:33The other thing I think
09:34was very clear
09:35from talking to him
09:36is that if oil prices
09:37stay as high as they are
09:38at the moment,
09:39that the government
09:40will not put up fuel duty
09:42as they plan to do
09:43in September.
09:44Those things are both
09:45predicated on a big if,
09:47if the war continues
09:48and the oil price
09:48stays as high as it is.
09:50But if we come back
09:51to where we began,
09:53I was interested
09:54in two parts
09:55of his interview,
09:55particularly,
09:57he did suggest
09:58that the UK government
09:59might consider
09:59sending some ships
10:01to that,
10:02to the Gulf
10:02and potentially
10:03to the Straits of Hormuz.
10:04And I was slightly surprised
10:06by how open to that
10:07he sounded.
10:08And second of all,
10:09though,
10:10when we asked him
10:10about whether
10:11the UK government
10:12thought it was clear
10:13what the Americans
10:13were trying to do,
10:16I thought he was
10:18distinctly hesitant,
10:20shall we say,
10:21to suggest
10:22that Donald Trump
10:23had a clear plan.
10:24You've said plainly,
10:25as the Prime Minister
10:26did to the country
10:27and the House of Commons,
10:28that the aims of the war
10:29weren't clear to him
10:30at the beginning.
10:31Are they clear to you
10:33now as a government?
10:36Forgive me, Laura,
10:37I'm not,
10:38you know,
10:39tempting as it is
10:40to sort of talk about this
10:41in a public setting.
10:43I think the U.S.
10:44Well, you talked about it
10:45two weeks ago
10:46when they began.
10:47The U.S. made its decisions.
10:49The U.S. made its decisions
10:50to begin,
10:54to launch these attacks
10:55on Iran.
10:57There is a shared objective,
10:59which is we don't want
10:59to nuclear Iran.
11:02But I think the priority now
11:04at this stage
11:05in the conflict
11:06is to make sure
11:08we don't have a nuclear Iran,
11:09but to bring the conflict
11:10to an end.
11:10I mean, I think it was,
11:11as Laura says,
11:13conspicuous
11:14what Ed Miliband
11:15was not willing
11:16to engage with.
11:17I mean, I think
11:18we are pretty clear now
11:19that the government,
11:21or at least senior people
11:22in the government,
11:23do not believe
11:24the U.S. has a clear plan
11:27for this war.
11:28I mean, actually,
11:29in his earlier statements
11:30on the conflict
11:31in the House of Commons,
11:32Keir Starmer
11:33essentially suggested that.
11:34He did.
11:35He said it very plainly.
11:36Exactly.
11:37He also said,
11:38you know,
11:39we do not believe,
11:41we do not believe
11:42that we should join
11:42a conflict
11:43unless there is
11:44a clear thought-through plan
11:45for what comes next,
11:46which was a sort of
11:47roundabout way
11:48of strongly implying
11:49that he didn't believe
11:49the U.S. has one here.
11:50I mean, there is
11:51a particular context
11:53around Ed Miliband here,
11:54which is that,
11:57courtesy of
11:58some brilliant journalism
11:59by Tim Shipman
11:59in The Spectator,
12:00which has conspicuously
12:02not been denied
12:03by anyone really involved,
12:05there was this crucial
12:07meeting of the
12:08Cabinet
12:08National Security Council,
12:10which Ed Miliband
12:11participated in
12:12because of the energy
12:13implications of this war
12:15just before the war
12:15broke out,
12:16where Ed Miliband
12:17was, we're told,
12:19one of the leading voices
12:20urging caution
12:21from the U.K.
12:22in signing up.
12:23And people remember,
12:24of course,
12:24when he was leader
12:24of the Labour Party
12:25that his decision
12:27to oppose the U.K.
12:29joining U.S. action
12:30in Syria
12:31had massive global consequences.
12:33So, you know,
12:34he is a significant player
12:35here again.
12:35It was really interesting
12:37and I also think
12:38he rather enjoyed
12:39being so hesitant
12:44to say whether,
12:45yes, exactly.
12:46I mean,
12:46he's a very experienced
12:47politician.
12:47He must have done
12:48tens of thousands
12:48of interviews.
12:49It cannot have been
12:51unintentional
12:52that he hesitated
12:54and then sort of
12:55did, oh, well,
12:56forgive me, Laura,
12:56it's all rather difficult
12:57to, it's rather difficult
12:59to tell you
12:59what I really think.
13:00If he believed
13:01that the Americans
13:02had a clear plan,
13:03a U.K.
13:04government minister
13:05would say,
13:05yes, of course,
13:06our closest ally
13:07knows what they're doing,
13:08they have a clear plan.
13:09So some decoding
13:10omissions
13:11are sometimes
13:11just as important
13:12as what politicians
13:14actually say.
13:15And also,
13:15if you bring the lens
13:17right out,
13:18the war is not
13:19going smoothly,
13:20says the world's
13:21energy markets.
13:22Correct.
13:23Now, you can say
13:24that the U.S.
13:25military strikes
13:26have struck targets
13:27and reduced
13:28and depleted Iran
13:29and have killed
13:30the old supreme leader.
13:31You can say
13:31all of that
13:32and it's true.
13:33However,
13:34Iran's weapon
13:35of choice
13:35is the world's
13:36energy markets
13:37through the
13:38Strait of Hormuz
13:38as discussed
13:39on Saturday's newscast
13:41with you,
13:41Frank and Steve Rosenberg.
13:43And one of the beneficiaries
13:45of the rising oil price
13:46is Russia
13:46who might also
13:47be helping Iran
13:48through the back door
13:49and maybe even
13:50through the front door.
13:51So that is not
13:52a success
13:52for American
13:53and Western
13:54war aims
13:55and policy objectives.
13:57That is why
13:57if you're Ed Miliband
13:58and it's out there
13:59somewhere
14:00that you warned
14:01that this was
14:02a reckless war
14:02then it's obviously
14:04good to be seen
14:05on the airwaves
14:06implying that you
14:07thought this all along.
14:08But it does take us
14:10to the other part
14:10of his brief
14:11which is because
14:12of the effect
14:14on oil prices
14:15people here at home
14:16are seeing petrol prices
14:17rise.
14:18They're protected
14:18by the energy price cap.
14:20Now, we are expecting
14:21an announcement
14:22on heating oil
14:24bills for customers.
14:25We are
14:25and we know
14:26newscasters
14:26that lots of you
14:27are worried about this
14:28because people have
14:29already seen
14:30real spikes
14:32in their bills
14:34and their ability
14:35even sometimes
14:35just to get their
14:36hands on heating oil
14:37to get the tanker
14:38to come to their village
14:39or wherever
14:39and fill up the thing
14:40even if they've already
14:41had a contract
14:42in place.
14:43So tomorrow
14:44we will hear
14:45from the Chancellor
14:47about her plan
14:48to spend
14:48what I'm told
14:49will be tens
14:49of millions of pounds
14:50so not an enormous amount
14:52I think there are
14:52about 1.5
14:531.67 million people
14:54in the country
14:54who depend on heating oil
14:56but I expect
14:57there will be an announcement
14:58of tens of millions
14:59of pounds
14:59of support
15:00for people
15:01who rely on heating oil
15:03it's going to be
15:03given out
15:04in England
15:05at least
15:06by the Crisis
15:07and Resilience Fund
15:08which is run
15:09by your local council
15:10it's not clear
15:12how in other parts
15:13of the UK
15:13the money will be
15:14doled out
15:14but it will be
15:16made available
15:16I'm told to expect
15:18this week
15:18in every corner
15:20of the UK
15:21which particularly
15:22in Northern Ireland
15:23where actually about
15:23two thirds of people
15:24rely on it
15:25so that's a sort of
15:26heating oil issue
15:28which has been
15:28a very very pressing
15:29one that's kind of
15:30been at the top
15:31of the list
15:31for the government
15:33the secondary issue
15:34though is
15:35if this goes on
15:35for a long time
15:37what will happen
15:38when the next price cap
15:39is set for energy bills
15:40which is some months away
15:41and further down
15:43if this carries on
15:45it was very clear
15:46from Ed Miliband
15:47that the government
15:48is thinking about
15:49how they might
15:50support people
15:51but at this stage
15:53frustrating though
15:54it might have been
15:54he didn't want to be
15:55drawn about exactly
15:56how
15:56this is what he said
15:57obviously
15:58we are preparing
16:00for all eventualities
16:01and I think it's right
16:02that we do that
16:02preparatory work
16:04learning the lessons
16:05of the last crisis
16:06when Russia invaded Ukraine
16:08and that
16:09if it is
16:10and the best I can say
16:12Laura
16:12and you'll find this
16:12a bit frustrating
16:13maybe your view
16:14still will too
16:14but if it's necessary
16:16to intervene
16:16we will
16:17so if it's necessary
16:18to intervene
16:19we will
16:19just remember
16:21the level
16:22at which the previous
16:23government did intervene
16:24so Liz Truss
16:27spent tens and tens
16:28of billions of pounds
16:29helping to pay
16:30people's energy bills
16:31when those bills
16:32were projected
16:33to go up to an average
16:34of three and a half
16:35grand a year
16:36so the projected jump
16:37was from about
16:38sixteen hundred pounds
16:39from memory
16:40to three and a half
16:41thousand pounds
16:43she said
16:45there's no way
16:45that people can
16:46be able to afford
16:47that
16:47they had warnings
16:48of businesses
16:48going under
16:49and all sorts of
16:50horrendous things
16:52she then intervened
16:54to set the top
16:55to cap the price
16:56at two and a half
16:58thousand pounds
16:59as you'd expect Paddy
17:00I tried to get
17:01in mid-band to say
17:02well would you do it
17:02if it's going to hit
17:03this or that
17:04he said we would not
17:05allow it to go up
17:05to three and a half
17:06thousand pounds
17:07he said there's no way
17:07that we'd allow it
17:08to go it's up to that
17:09he didn't however
17:11go for any of my
17:12attempts to hook him
17:13in on whether
17:13two and a half grand
17:14might be the limit
17:14at which they would
17:15step in
17:15I definitely thought
17:16Laura was that
17:17Sharon White
17:18Baroness White
17:19was on your panel
17:19former senior
17:20civil servant
17:20John Lewis boss
17:21and other things
17:22besides was bang on
17:23when she said
17:24look we all know
17:25that if this war
17:26goes on for some
17:27time the government
17:28is going to end up
17:29doing something
17:30and I think
17:31just in a reflection
17:32of the politics
17:33of this
17:34that is absolutely
17:35correct
17:36I do also wonder
17:37though
17:38given that we
17:39are beginning to
17:41see that perhaps
17:42the energy price
17:43shock of the Liz
17:44Truss era
17:45was not a one-off
17:46and that these
17:49macroeconomic shocks
17:50these supply shocks
17:51whatever you want
17:52to call them
17:52may well just be
17:53a feature of
17:54the 21st century
17:56I do wonder
17:57if you are going
17:58to see more
17:58of a political
17:59argument from
18:00parties on the
18:01right
18:02and we didn't
18:03see this by the
18:03way from the
18:04Conservative
18:04Claire Coutinho
18:05today but I
18:06just wonder
18:06whether we will
18:07see sometime
18:08an argument
18:09develop which is
18:09well actually
18:10the UK cannot
18:12afford to
18:13socialise every
18:14macroeconomic shock
18:15and I did
18:16detect a little
18:18bit of that
18:19actually from
18:19Claire Coutinho
18:19she said we
18:20have to look at
18:21other things
18:21before we look
18:22at subsidy
18:22now she wasn't
18:24saying
18:25Paddy
18:25tough
18:26if the bill
18:27goes up
18:27you're on
18:27your own
18:28but she
18:29didn't say
18:30yes of course
18:31we would support
18:32the government
18:32stepping in
18:33and I wrote
18:34a bit about
18:35this for yesterday
18:36and someone
18:37in government
18:37said to me
18:38look if
18:38Quarteng and
18:39Truss acted
18:40then Starmer
18:40and Reeves
18:41are going to
18:41have to act
18:42I think it's
18:42absolutely the
18:43case that
18:44there's an
18:44assumption
18:44if this goes
18:45on the
18:45government
18:46would have
18:46to step
18:46in in
18:46some way
18:47there is
18:48though a
18:48conversation
18:49about whether
18:49or not
18:49that support
18:50could be
18:50for everyone
18:51for the
18:51poorest
18:51household
18:52and the
18:53richest
18:53household
18:54there seems
18:55a determination
18:55in government
18:56it probably
18:56can't be
18:57universal
18:57because the
18:57money just
18:58sort of
18:58isn't there
18:59but there's
18:59a really
19:00interesting
19:00wider
19:00conversation
19:01and I
19:01wrote a bit
19:02about this
19:02yesterday
19:03if the
19:04surprise of
19:04the 2020s
19:05is going to
19:06be that
19:06shocks come
19:10maybe there
19:11has to be
19:11a different
19:11political
19:12conversation
19:12with the
19:13country
19:13and it's
19:13the sort
19:14of
19:14emergencies
19:14create an
19:15expectation
19:16that the
19:17government's
19:17always going
19:18to step
19:18in
19:18well I'm
19:19glad you've
19:19both taken
19:20us there
19:20because this
19:21piece is also
19:22written today
19:22by Matthew
19:23Syed in the
19:24Sunday Times
19:24who calls
19:25that snake
19:26oil
19:26you've got to
19:27be more
19:28honest with
19:28us the
19:29British public
19:29says Matthew
19:30Syed
19:30because what
19:31you're effectively
19:32doing is
19:33redistributing
19:34wealth from
19:35the future
19:35to the present
19:36this business
19:37of holding
19:39on to
19:39nanny
19:39when the
19:40bills go
19:40up is
19:41not possible
19:42for us
19:42to keep
19:43funding
19:43it's not
19:43accurate
19:44it's not
19:44true to
19:44the public
19:45finances
19:45says the
19:46piece by
19:46Matthew
19:46Syed
19:47and therefore
19:48it's interesting
19:49to note
19:49that the
19:50Conservatives
19:50are trying
19:50to find
19:51some clear
19:51blue water
19:52when you
19:52consider
19:53that as
19:54I've always
19:54said
19:54she paid
19:55Laura
19:56Coonsworth
19:56gas bill
19:57I spoke to
19:58people who
19:59were involved
19:59in that
20:00emergency
20:01action
20:01in 2022
20:03and I
20:03also spoke
20:04to people
20:04who'd been
20:04involved in
20:05putting the
20:05furlough
20:05programme
20:06together
20:07and they
20:08also said
20:08two things
20:09were true
20:10at the same
20:10time is
20:11one they
20:11absolutely
20:12felt that
20:12they had
20:12no choice
20:13but to
20:13act in
20:13those two
20:14scenarios
20:16I mean even
20:17Farlow
20:17was striking
20:17one of the
20:18people that
20:18was in the
20:19room making
20:19the decision
20:20said to me
20:20you know we
20:21were told
20:21that 10
20:21million people
20:22were going
20:22to lose
20:22their jobs
20:23we had to
20:24do it
20:24we had no
20:25choice
20:26but another
20:26person involved
20:27in some
20:28of these
20:28decisions
20:29around the
20:29energy bill
20:30said sometimes
20:31you make
20:31the wrong
20:32decisions
20:32for the
20:32right
20:33reasons
20:34and they
20:34all kind
20:35of said
20:35we had
20:36to act
20:36but maybe
20:37in reflection
20:37the level
20:39of generosity
20:40might have
20:41been something
20:41that we would
20:42look again
20:42if you look
20:43at the
20:43after effects
20:44you know
20:44on government
20:44borrowing
20:45also in
20:46when it
20:46comes to
20:46furlough
20:47people's
20:47attitude
20:47to going
20:48back to
20:48work
20:48you know
20:49these sort
20:49of big
20:50huge
20:50moments
20:52do have
20:53really really
20:54long lasting
20:55consequences
20:56so there'll
20:56be people
20:57in Whitehall
20:58right now
20:58thinking what
20:59on earth
21:00are they going
21:00to do
21:00in the autumn
21:01if these
21:01bills do
21:01go up
21:02in the way
21:02that we
21:02want
21:03can they
21:03repeat
21:04those
21:05decisions
21:05in the
21:06same way
21:06well let's
21:07make some
21:07predictions
21:07I would
21:08say
21:10no
21:11Henry
21:11I think
21:12we could
21:13play podcast
21:14prediction
21:16time
21:17they will
21:18do a
21:18sort of
21:18means
21:19tested
21:19assistance
21:20this time
21:20around
21:21say I
21:21who knows
21:22nothing
21:22what do
21:23you say
21:23who knows
21:24everything
21:25I'm not
21:26sure about
21:26that
21:27I certainly
21:27don't know
21:27anything
21:27about the
21:28future
21:28but I
21:29think I
21:29agree with
21:30you
21:30I think
21:30it'll be
21:31means
21:31tested
21:31but I
21:31think
21:32there'll
21:32be
21:33furious
21:34arguments
21:34about where
21:35that boundary
21:35is drawn
21:36as ever
21:36and they're
21:37trying to
21:37look at it
21:38at the
21:38moment
21:38and it
21:39was again
21:39from people
21:40involved
21:40in the
21:40decisions
21:41around
21:41those
21:42trusts
21:42they did
21:42look at
21:43how they
21:43might be
21:43able to
21:44graduate
21:45the
21:45payments
21:45and they
21:46concluded
21:47in the
21:47time
21:47they
21:47had
21:48it was
21:49just
21:49impossible
21:49to do
21:50because
21:50any
21:50system
21:51that you
21:51look at
21:51whether it's
21:52bans of
21:52council tax
21:53or whether
21:53you look at
21:54household income
21:55you end up
21:55with the
21:56kind of
21:56terrible
21:57case study
21:57of the
21:58people who
21:58just missed
21:59the cutoff
21:59you know
22:00sometimes called
22:00the cliff edge
22:01when we have
22:02these conversations
22:02about tax
22:03bans or
22:04where something
22:04kicks in
22:05or not
22:05but like
22:07you both
22:07I mean
22:07I agree
22:09with both
22:10of you
22:10if we get
22:10to that
22:11point
22:11and it's
22:11still an
22:12if
22:12I think
22:12the government
22:13will try
22:13to look
22:14at something
22:15that gives
22:16help to
22:16people who
22:16really need
22:17it but
22:17doesn't give
22:17help to
22:18anyone
22:18but
22:19something
22:19else
22:20one of
22:20the former
22:20number 10
22:21officials
22:21I talked
22:22to who'd
22:22been involved
22:22in these
22:23previous
22:23decisions
22:23and sorry
22:24for keep
22:24banging on
22:24about it
22:25but they
22:26said if you
22:26think about
22:26the world
22:27now
22:27their phrase
22:28was
22:29maybe it's
22:29just
22:30really expensive
22:31now to be
22:32normal
22:33which I thought
22:34was really
22:34interesting
22:34the world
22:34is so
22:35volatile
22:35it just
22:36actually means
22:36things are
22:36more expensive
22:37and that's
22:38why we
22:38understood this
22:39phrase
22:39the peace
22:40dividend
22:40because when
22:41the cold
22:42war ended
22:42all of
22:43this stuff
22:43went away
22:44and what
22:45did we do
22:46well with
22:46hindsight
22:47not enough
22:47says just
22:48about everybody
22:49we took it
22:49for granted
22:50we were
22:50complacent
22:51that would
22:51include all
22:52of us
22:52journalists
22:53the political
22:53class
22:54the voters
22:54in the
22:55west
22:55and that's
22:56coming home
22:56to roost
22:57big time
22:57but how
22:58then for a
22:58government
22:58that says
22:59it wants
22:59to help
22:59people with
23:00the cost
23:00of living
23:00and grow
23:01the economy
23:02well if
23:02the oil
23:03price keeps
23:04spiking
23:05economic
23:05growth
23:06ain't coming
23:06any time
23:07soon
23:07how then for
23:08a government
23:08that says
23:09it's going
23:09to find
23:09tens of
23:10billions
23:10of pounds
23:10to spend
23:11on defence
23:11because the
23:12world is
23:12a scarier
23:13place
23:13but they
23:14also might
23:14have to
23:15spend tens
23:15of billions
23:16of pounds
23:16to help
23:17people pay
23:18energy bills
23:19and borrowing
23:20is already
23:21where it is
23:21and the
23:22trajectory of
23:23bringing debt
23:24down which
23:25the Chancellor
23:25says is very
23:26important is
23:26already you know
23:27about as steep
23:29as a car park
23:30this is all
23:31really difficult
23:32challenging stuff
23:33not just because
23:34it's bombs
23:35falling from the sky
23:36onto oil
23:37refineries
23:38onto people's heads
23:39there's a danger
23:40and a security
23:40question
23:41but also
23:42political and
23:43economic questions
23:44about how on earth
23:45governments right
23:46around the world
23:46manage all of
23:47these enormous
23:48challenges
23:48and this was
23:49predicted
23:50if you bomb
23:51Iran
23:51Iran's weapon
23:52of choice
23:52is the Strait of Hormuz
23:54and the world's
23:54energy markets
23:55that was known
23:56before Israel
23:57and the United
23:58States took out
23:59the supreme leader
24:00so the question
24:01was always
24:02I've always said
24:03it like this
24:03you've got to
24:04look at the map
24:04and you've got to
24:05look at the clock
24:06so we know
24:07now the maps
24:07taught us
24:08a fifth of the
24:09world's oil supply
24:10goes through
24:11something about
24:12an inch wide
24:12which is controlled
24:13by Iran
24:14that's what
24:15actually was the
24:15case before
24:16they started
24:16bombing
24:17it's been the
24:17case throughout
24:18the oil making
24:18history
24:19and it's still
24:20the case
24:20that's the map
24:21then the clock
24:22how long
24:23can this go on
24:24the Sunday
24:25journalists
24:25today agree
24:27the world
24:28says it's got
24:29to come to
24:30an end
24:31and we know
24:32that Donald Trump
24:33will declare victory
24:34when this ends
24:35he will say
24:36it's a victory
24:36but what we
24:37don't know
24:38is when
24:39and then in the
24:40middle of it
24:40is all the
24:41political gesturing
24:43that you've been
24:43talking about
24:44and Henry's been
24:44reminding us about
24:45the government
24:45every day
24:46the British government
24:47has to come up
24:47with a way
24:48Henry of telling
24:48us the voter
24:49what they think
24:50about today
24:51when they don't
24:53know what
24:54tomorrow will bring
24:54in terms of
24:55this conflict
24:55ending
24:57yeah and good
24:58luck with that
24:58I mean this is
24:59the thing
25:00it's an extraordinarily
25:01hard period to be
25:02in government
25:04I mean I'm sure
25:04no one who's ever
25:05been in government
25:06thinks it's an easy
25:06period to be in
25:07government
25:07but you know
25:08certainly if you
25:09compare Keir Starmer
25:11and his government
25:11to the last Labour
25:12government
25:13as people around
25:14Keir Starmer
25:14sometimes do
25:15in private
25:15and they say
25:16well look
25:16they were just
25:16spending the
25:17proceeds of growth
25:18and distributing
25:19them around
25:20whereas this
25:21government has a
25:21much tougher
25:22task in terms
25:23of how it
25:24explains
25:25where it's going
25:26and you know
25:27the public opinion
25:28evidence is that
25:29the public are
25:29angrier and more
25:30frustrated and more
25:31volatile than ever
25:32and there's a big
25:33set of elections
25:34around the corner
25:35Mega May
25:35it's coming
25:36thick and fast
25:36down the tracks
25:37but again
25:38as you said
25:38got about 18
25:40months ago
25:40we'd be talking
25:41about foreign
25:41policy much more
25:42than any
25:43I think you said
25:44that
25:44did I say that
25:45well we are as one
25:46I repeated it
25:47we are as one
25:48I Laura explained
25:48it back to you
25:49what should we look
25:50for this week
25:51Henry at home
25:53well I think
25:54I think what
25:54Rachel Reeves
25:55announces tomorrow
25:56will be a big
25:57moment obviously
25:58for those who
25:59use heating
26:00oil but also
26:01in terms of
26:02any indications
26:03we get from her
26:04about the direction
26:05of her thinking
26:06about other
26:07energy supply
26:08issues that may
26:09well be coming
26:09down the track
26:11I think that's
26:12right I think
26:13she'll get
26:13you know her
26:14announcement on
26:14heating oil
26:15will come out
26:16there'll probably
26:16be questions
26:17about whether
26:17or not it
26:18is going to
26:18give people
26:19enough support
26:19given the spike
26:20in the price
26:20but I think
26:21the tougher
26:21questions will
26:22be and they
26:23will probably
26:23go round and
26:24round and
26:25round I'm
26:25afraid newscasters
26:26for some weeks
26:27and perhaps
26:27some months
26:28to come
26:28about what
26:29are they
26:29going to do
26:30if energy
26:31bills spike
26:32we should say
26:33I think we
26:33can't say this
26:34enough people
26:35are very worried
26:35energy bills as
26:37they stand are
26:37going to come
26:38down for most
26:39people during
26:40the next period
26:41and there's a
26:42big thing here
26:43which is a
26:43benefit that we
26:44are going into
26:45this summer
26:45we're going into
26:46a period where
26:46everyone doesn't
26:47need to crank
26:48the heating up
26:48so let's just
26:49say that before
26:50everyone's going
26:51oh my god
26:52inflation is going
26:52to go through
26:53the roof
26:53it's going to
26:53be just as bad
26:54as a couple
26:54of years ago
26:55I'm not going
26:56to be able to
26:56manage
26:56of course
26:57people are
26:58under pressure
26:58but bills
26:58are planned
26:59to come
27:00down
27:00what we're
27:01talking about
27:02is what might
27:02come after
27:03that which
27:03could be
27:04very serious
27:04but it's
27:05still an if
27:06very important
27:07way to go
27:07I want to
27:08put three
27:08initials in
27:09which I think
27:09we'll hear
27:09more about
27:10this week
27:11LPG
27:11yes
27:12we heard
27:12from many
27:13radio 4
27:14listeners this
27:14morning when
27:15we spoke
27:15about heating
27:15oil saying
27:16this is the
27:17same problem
27:18LPG is not
27:19capped either
27:20and I heat
27:21my home with
27:22LPG
27:22liquefied
27:23petroleum gas
27:24for the
27:25uninitiated
27:26yes
27:26I'm adding
27:27that to what
27:28you've added
27:28in our crystal
27:29ball
27:30so to you
27:31listening if
27:31you still are
27:32we say thank
27:33you very
27:34thank you
27:35very much
27:35for listening
27:36and goodbye
27:36goodbye
27:37goodbye
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