00:01War. War never changes.
00:03But while the news cycle obsesses over tactical maps,
00:07your reporter is looking at the people.
00:10President Trump has called the conflict
00:12a short-term excursion.
00:14But if he's wrong, Europe could deal with a refugee crisis
00:17of an unprecedented magnitude.
00:19And history shows that when a home becomes a battlefield,
00:23people move towards safety and existing ties.
00:25So where could they go?
00:28Currently, roughly 4 million Iranians live abroad,
00:32and most of them migrated during or after the 1979 revolution.
00:37In Europe, Germany leads with over 300,000 people,
00:42followed by the UK and Sweden, with each hosting around 100,000.
00:47In 2025, only 8,000 Iranians sought asylum in Europe,
00:52which is less than 1% of all applications.
00:55But with a population of 90 million, the EU Asylum Agency warns
01:00that even partial instability could trigger a massive refugee crisis.
01:05However, the agency also calls this scenario highly speculative,
01:09stressing it is too early for firm predictions.
01:12But you should know this isn't only about Iran.
01:16It is about the whole region.
01:18Iran is already one of the world's largest refugee hosts.
01:22A home to over one and a half million of them,
01:25and many more with an undocumented status.
01:28Most of refugees come from Afghanistan and Iraq,
01:32and are now caught in just another war zone.
01:35And the ripple effect is spreading.
01:37According to the International Organization for Migration,
01:41over 660,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon because of the conflict.
01:47And right now, no one knows yet how or when the war will end.
01:52But for Europe, it seems that the consequences are no longer distant.
01:57.
01:57.
