00:00President Trump has said for now he's not ruling out sending troops on the ground,
00:03but not everyone agrees with this.
00:05For the view from the former CIA boss and the lead general who oversaw U.S. troops in Iraq,
00:10Your News' Mered Gwynne-Jones spoke to General David Petraeus.
00:13She started by asking him if he expected a Venezuela scenario in Iran.
00:18I think the answer to that is yes, and I think that it is possible, it's conceivable.
00:23I don't know that it is the most likely outcome.
00:26So, again, I think we have to be cautious about our hopes that a pragmatic figure could emerge.
00:32It's by no means impossible.
00:34Kareem Saadjapur, the great Iranian analyst here in the United States,
00:37has noted that it used to be that the regime was comprised of 80 percent true believers,
00:44true ideologues, hardliners, and 20 percent charlatans are called.
00:49They're just basically opportunists trying to get what they can by being part of the regime.
00:53But now it's 20 percent hardliners and 80 percent charlatans.
00:59So the possibility is there, certainly, that someone could emerge who might say,
01:04look, Mr. President, you're right.
01:07What the nuclear program and the arming of proxies and our killing of Americans and Arabs and Israelis
01:14has brought us is ruined.
01:16And we see the error of our ways and we want to sail straight.
01:20We want to get along with our neighbors and those in the region and with you.
01:26And we're willing to give up our aspirations in all these cases.
01:30That would obviously be a very dramatic departure.
01:33Do you think that this could extend into a prolonged war?
01:37We saw the war secretary, Pete Hegseth, today refusing to rule out potentially troops on the ground.
01:45Do you think that this could evolve into something more dangerous,
01:49more spiraling than the U.S. maybe originally intended?
01:53No, I think the president and the secretary and others have been very clear
01:56that we're not going to put boots on the ground.
01:58And frankly, I think that as the days go by,
02:01while noting that there is still a very real possibility of additional casualties of,
02:08again, those in host nations, those in Israel, those of American forces and others,
02:13that over time there will be a degradation of the ability of Iran to retaliate,
02:19will continue to reduce their missile stocks, the launchers, the short-range missiles, and even the drones.
02:27So I think they will be hard-pressed to maintain even remotely what the pace has been by Iran so
02:35far.
02:35We are seeing, General, also European nations talking about potentially supporting
02:41the defensive capacities of the U.S., including the U.K.
02:46Do you think President Trump is expecting the support of its European allies here
02:51and is counting on them to support this operation in some way?
02:56I think the plan that was conceived was essentially the U.S. and Israel
03:01and then the host nations in the region whose air and ballistic missile defenses
03:06are always integrated into those of the U.S. and Israel.
03:10I don't think there was an assumption made that the Europeans would join in.
03:14It would have been good if they had, at least for defensive purposes from the very beginning,
03:19because it's very clear, it should have been clear at the outset,
03:22that Iran is not going to limit its targets to just U.S. bases, Israel, and so forth.
03:30It's going after civilian targets, airfields, ports, and so forth in the Gulf states and beyond,
03:37and reaching as far as Cyprus, as you noted.
03:41So I think from a purely defensive standpoint, that would have been wise from the beginning.
03:45I mean, the question now is whether or not they go on the offensive
03:49and start contributing to taking down the retaliatory capabilities of the U.S. and Israel.
03:56Finally, General, is that something that you can foresee happening,
04:00European nations joining in a more offensive capacity?
04:04My understanding is that that has been discussed.
04:06I don't know that I'd predict what the outcome would be,
04:09but the fact that it's just being discussed, I think, indicates that it's certainly a possibility.
04:17And you can catch the rest of that interview with General David Petraeus on your News' 12 Minutes programme.
Comments